Financial Crises in the 1890s and the 1990s: Must History Repeat

macroeconomics, financial crises, 1990s, 1890s

A Short Note on the Size of the Dot-Com Bubble

A surprisingly large amount of commentary today marks the beginning of the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s from either the Netscape Communications initial public offering of 1995 or Alan Greenspan's "irrational exuberance" speech of 1996. We believe that this is wrong: we see little sign that the aggregate U.S. stock market was in any way in a significant bubble until 1998 or so.

Between Meltdown and Moral Hazard: The International Monetary and Financial Policies of the Clinton Administration

We review and analyze the monetary and financial policies of the Clinton administration with a focus on the strong dollar policy, the Mexican rescue, the response to the Asian crisis, and the debate over reform of the international financial architecture. While we consider the role of ideas, interests and institutions in the formulation of policy, our emphasis here is on institutions, and specifically on how personnel and administrative arrangements allowed the Treasury department to exercise an unusually important influence in the development of these policies. This allowed a set of ideas imported by Treasury from academia and the markets to strongly influence the formulation of the international monetary and financial policies during the Clinton years.

The 'new economy' : background, historical perspective, questions, and speculations

In a presentation at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s 2001 symposium, “Economic Policy for the Information Economy,” Professor J. Bradford DeLong of the University of California-Berkeley, and Harvard President Lawrence H. Summers suggested that any attempt to analyze the meaning and importance of the "new economy" must grapple with four questions:> First, in the long run, how important will ongoing technological revolutions in data processing and data communications turn out to be? Second, what does the crash of the Nasdaq tell us about the future of the new economy? Third, how should government regulation of the economy change so as to maximize the benefits we reap from these ongoing technological revolutions? And fourth, how will the American economy respond to the shock to public confidence and the destruction caused by the terror attacks of September 11?> In exploring answers to these questions, the authors found the following: The long-run economic impact of the ongoing technological revolutions in data processing and data communications will be very large indeed. The crash of the Nasdaq tells us next to nothing about the dimensions of the economic transformation that we are undergoing. It does, however, tell us that the new economy is more likely to be a source of downward pressure on margins than of large durable quasi-rents. The principal effects of the "new economy" are more likely to be "microeconomic" than "macroeconomic," and they will lead to profound—if at present unclear—changes in how the government should act to provide the property rights, institutional frameworks, and "rules of the game" that underpin the market economy. And finally, the events of September 11 will slow private investment in new technologies, but U.S. military spending is likely to increase, and the increase in military spending will be concentrated on high-technology data-processing and data-communications products. On balance, therefore, the changes in economic structure that fall under the category “new economy” are not likely to be much affected.