The Incipient Giant Component in Bond Percolation on General Finite Weighted Graphs

On a large finite connected graph let edges $e$ become "open" at independent random Exponential times of arbitrary rates $w_e$. Under minimal assumptions, the time at which a giant component starts to emerge is weakly concentrated around its mean

Weak Concentration for First Passage Percolation Times on Graphs and General Increasing Set-valued Processes

A simple lemma bounds $\mathrm{s.d.}(T)/\mathbb{E} T$ for hitting times $T$ in Markov chains with a certain strong monotonicity property. We show how this lemma may be applied to several increasing set-valued processes. Our main result concerns a model of first passage percolation on a finite graph, where the traversal times of edges are independent Exponentials with arbitrary rates. Consider the percolation time $X$ between two arbitrary vertices. We prove that $\mathrm{s.d.}(X)/\mathbb{E} X$ is small if and only if $\Xi/\mathbb{E} X$ is small, where $\Xi$ is the maximal edge-traversal time in the percolation path attaining $X$

Percolation-like Scaling Exponents for Minimal Paths and Trees in the Stochastic Mean Field Model

In the mean field (or random link) model there are $n$ points and inter-point distances are independent random variables. For $0 < \ell < \infty$ and in the $n \to \infty$ limit, let $\delta(\ell) = 1/n \times$ (maximum number of steps in a path whose average step-length is $\leq \ell$). The function $\delta(\ell)$ is analogous to the percolation function in percolation theory: there is a critical value $\ell_* = e^{-1}$ at which $\delta(\cdot)$ becomes non-zero, and (presumably) a scaling exponent $\beta$ in the sense $\delta(\ell) \asymp (\ell - \ell_*)^\beta$. Recently developed probabilistic methodology (in some sense a rephrasing of the cavity method of Mezard-Parisi) provides a simple albeit non-rigorous way of writing down such functions in terms of solutions of fixed-point equations for probability distributions. Solving numerically gives convincing evidence that $\beta = 3$. A parallel study with trees instead of paths gives scaling exponent $\beta = 2$. The new exponents coincide with those found in a different context (comparing optimal and near-optimal solutions of mean-field TSP and MST) and reinforce the suggestion that these scaling exponents determine universality classes for optimization problems on random points.Comment: 19 page

A survey of max-type recursive distributional equations

In certain problems in a variety of applied probability settings (from probabilistic analysis of algorithms to statistical physics), the central requirement is to solve a recursive distributional equation of the form X =^d g((\xi_i,X_i),i\geq 1). Here (\xi_i) and g(\cdot) are given and the X_i are independent copies of the unknown distribution X. We survey this area, emphasizing examples where the function g(\cdot) is essentially a ``maximum'' or ``minimum'' function. We draw attention to the theoretical question of endogeny: in the associated recursive tree process X_i, are the X_i measurable functions of the innovations process (\xi_i)?Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/105051605000000142 in the Annals of Applied Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aap/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

How to Combine Fast Heuristic Markov Chain Monte Carlo with Slow Exact Sampling

Use each of n exact samples as the initial state for a MCMC sampler run for m steps. We give confidence intervals for accuracy of estimators which are always valid and which, in certain settings, are almost as good as the intervals one would obtain if the (unknown) mixing time of the chain were known.Comment: 14 page

A critical branching process model for biodiversity

Motivated as a null model for comparison with data, we study the following model for a phylogenetic tree on $n$ extant species. The origin of the clade is a random time in the past, whose (improper) distribution is uniform on $(0,\infty)$. After that origin, the process of extinctions and speciations is a continuous-time critical branching process of constant rate, conditioned on having the prescribed number $n$ of species at the present time. We study various mathematical properties of this model as $n \to \infty$ limits: time of origin and of most recent common ancestor; pattern of divergence times within lineage trees; time series of numbers of species; number of extinct species in total, or ancestral to extant species; and "local" structure of the tree itself. We emphasize several mathematical techniques: associating walks with trees, a point process representation of lineage trees, and Brownian limits.Comment: 31 pages, 7 figure

RiffleScrambler - a memory-hard password storing function

We introduce RiffleScrambler: a new family of directed acyclic graphs and a corresponding data-independent memory hard function with password independent memory access. We prove its memory hardness in the random oracle model. RiffleScrambler is similar to Catena -- updates of hashes are determined by a graph (bit-reversal or double-butterfly graph in Catena). The advantage of the RiffleScrambler over Catena is that the underlying graphs are not predefined but are generated per salt, as in Balloon Hashing. Such an approach leads to higher immunity against practical parallel attacks. RiffleScrambler offers better efficiency than Balloon Hashing since the in-degree of the underlying graph is equal to 3 (and is much smaller than in Ballon Hashing). At the same time, because the underlying graph is an instance of a Superconcentrator, our construction achieves the same time-memory trade-offs.Comment: Accepted to ESORICS 201

Connected Spatial Networks over Random Points and a Route-Length Statistic

We review mathematically tractable models for connected networks on random points in the plane, emphasizing the class of proximity graphs which deserves to be better known to applied probabilists and statisticians. We introduce and motivate a particular statistic $R$ measuring shortness of routes in a network. We illustrate, via Monte Carlo in part, the trade-off between normalized network length and $R$ in a one-parameter family of proximity graphs. How close this family comes to the optimal trade-off over all possible networks remains an intriguing open question. The paper is a write-up of a talk developed by the first author during 2007--2009.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-STS335 the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org