Operational prediction of forest attributes using standardised harvester data and airborne laser scanning data in Sweden

With cut-to-length harvesters, tree stems are measured and cut into different timber assortments at the time of felling. These measurement data collected from harvested trees can be used for decision-support at different levels of the forest industry chain and also for forest planning when combined with remote sensing data. The aim of this study was to examine the operational application for predicting merchantable stem volume, basal area, basal area-weighted mean tree height, basal area-weighted mean stem diameter and diameter distribution at stand level with airborne laser scanning data and harvester data from final felling operations. The area-based approach using k-MSN estimation was evaluated for six different variants of spatial partitioning. The results were stand level predictions with relative root mean square errors of 11-14%, 10-15%, 3-4% and 6-7% for merchantable stem volume, basal area, basal area-weighted mean tree height and basal area-weighted mean stem diameter, respectively. Predictions of stem diameter distributions resulted in error indices of 0.13-0.14. The results demonstrate that harvester data from cut forests may serve as ground truth to airborne laser scanning data and provide accurate forest estimates at stand level. The predicted diameter distributions could be useful for improving yield estimates and bucking simulations

Raytracing in the compensation of the peripheral optics of the eye

Abstract Background: Many people with a visual impairment have only peripheral vision. However, there is limited knowledge of the peripheral optics of the eye and only some measurements are available in this field. Methods: We simulated the paths of peripheral rays through the eye by means of raytracing. Five programs were compared. The OSLO raytracing software proved to be not only the best one in these circumstances but we also found it very well suited to our purpose. Remaining uncertainties are entirely due to a lack of input data about the peripheral part of the optical system of the eye. We designed compensatory optics on the basis of the test results. Results: Lenses have been manufactured in accordance with the calculations made by the program for angles of incidence of 20, 40, and 60 degrees. The lenses are high compensation astigmatic lenses. The results of perimeter examinations of changes in peripheral vision using attachment optics were inconclusive, while tests of the lenses as attachments in front of a fundus camera produced successful preliminary results. Conclusion: The next step is to test peripheral vision compensatory optics in traffic situations (driving simulator). At the same time attempts are being made to find methods and instruments for measuring the peripheral optics of the eye. Keywords: astigmatism, central scotoma, raytracing, macula degeneration, peripheral vision

Trusting the results of model-based economic analyses: is there a pragmatic validation solution?

Models have become a nearly essential component of health technology assessment. This is because the efficacy and safety data available from clinical trials are insufficient to provide the required estimates of impact of new interventions over long periods of time and for other populations and subgroups. Despite more than five decades of use of these decision-analytic models, decision makers are still often presented with poorly validated models and thus trust in their results is impaired. Among the reasons for this vexing situation are the artificial nature of the models, impairing their validation against observable data, the complexity in their formulation and implementation, the lack of data against which to validate the model results, and the challenges of short timelines and insufficient resources. This article addresses this crucial problem of achieving models that produce results that can be trusted and the resulting requirements for validation and transparency, areas where our field is currently deficient. Based on their differing perspectives and experiences, the authors characterize the situation and outline the requirements for improvement and pragmatic solutions to the problem o

Invasive meningococcal disease epidemiology and control measures: a framework for evaluation

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Meningococcal disease can have devastating consequences. As new vaccines emerge, it is necessary to assess their impact on public health. In the absence of long-term real world data, modeling the effects of different vaccination strategies is required. Discrete event simulation provides a flexible platform with which to conduct such evaluations.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A discrete event simulation of the epidemiology of invasive meningococcal disease was developed to quantify the potential impact of implementing routine vaccination of adolescents in the United States with a quadrivalent conjugate vaccine protecting against serogroups A, C, Y, and W-135. The impact of vaccination is assessed including both the direct effects on individuals vaccinated and the indirect effects resulting from herd immunity. The simulation integrates a variety of epidemiologic and demographic data, with core information on the incidence of invasive meningococcal disease and outbreak frequency derived from data available through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Simulation of the potential indirect benefits of vaccination resulting from herd immunity draw on data from the United Kingdom, where routine vaccination with a conjugate vaccine has been in place for a number of years. Cases of disease are modeled along with their health consequences, as are the occurrence of disease outbreaks.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>When run without a strategy of routine immunization, the simulation accurately predicts the age-specific incidence of invasive meningococcal disease and the site-specific frequency of outbreaks in the Unite States. 2,807 cases are predicted annually, resulting in over 14,000 potential life years lost due to invasive disease. In base case analyses of routine vaccination, life years lost due to infection are reduced by over 45% (to 7,600) when routinely vaccinating adolescents 12 years of age at 70% coverage. Sensitivity analyses indicate that herd immunity plays an important role when this population is targeted for vaccination. While 1,100 cases are avoided annually when herd immunity effects are included, in the absence of any herd immunity, the number of cases avoided with routine vaccination falls to 380 annually. The duration of vaccine protection also strongly influences results.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In the absence of appropriate real world data on outcomes associated with large-scale vaccination programs, decisions on optimal immunization strategies can be aided by discrete events simulations such as the one described here. Given the importance of herd immunity on outcomes associated with routine vaccination, published estimates of the economic efficiency of routine vaccination with a quadrivalent conjugate vaccine in the United States may have considerably underestimated the benefits associated with a policy of routine immunization of adolescents.</p