Ministerial turnover in the German Länder (1991-2010)

This article examines ministerial turnover in the cabinets of the German Länder by analyzing the determinants of the length of ministerial tenure in the respective governments. The analysis draws on a newly compiled dataset that comprises all cabinets of the sixteen German Länder from 1991 to 2010. Survival analysis shows that aggregate factors describing the (institutional) political setting, such as the type of government (coalition), as well as the parliamentary strength of the government parties influence the hazard for ministerial turnover, while the ideological distance between coalition partners does not show a significant effect. In addition, several individual characteristics of the ministers are of relevance. For example, regional rootedness increases the time period in office. Other socio-demographic characteristics such as gender or holding a PhD do not have any effect.Dieser Artikel untersucht wie lange Länderminister in Deutschland im Kabinett vertreten sind und insbesondere welche Faktoren diese Dauer erklären können. Dabei stehen der individuelle Minister und dessen Verweildauer im Kabinett im Fokus der Analyse. Die durchgeführte statistische Survival-Analyse gründet sich auf einen neu erstellten Datensatz, der sämtliche Kabinette der 16 Länder zwischen 1991 und 2010 enthält. Es zeigt sich, dass sowohl Aggregatfaktoren, die die politisch-institutionelle Arena charakterisieren, wie z. B. die Art der Regierung(skoalition), als auch die parlamentarische Stärke der Koalitionspartei(en) die Wahrscheinlichkeit für einen Wechsel des Ministers erhöhen. Daneben spielen aber auch einige den Minister selbst beschreibende biographische Faktoren eine Rolle. Regional in dem betreffenden Bundesland verwurzelt zu sein erhöht beispielsweise die Dauer im Amt. Andere individuelle Charakteristika wie das Geschlecht oder das Führen eines Doktortitels hingegen zeigen keinerlei Einfluss

Voluntary Withdrawals, Forced Resignations, Collective Retirements or Just Bad Fortune? A Competing Risks Analysis of Ministerial Turnover in the German Länder (1990-2010)

This paper explores the determinants of ministerial duration within the German Länder between 1990 and 2010. In arguing that different terminal events ceasing ministerial tenures should be analyzed separately, it distinguishes four exit types: voluntary, forced, collective (ministers leaving office because their whole party does so) and exits that are neither volitional acts of the minister nor politically induced. Depending on the exit type, competing-risks Cox-models show different effects for one and the same variable on the hazard for ministerial turnover. Seniority in high-level politics for example helps not to be forced out of office while it has no effect on voluntary or collective exits. Heading an important ministry on the other hand increases the chances to rise to other positions in high politics or private business, but does not impact the other two hazards. The analysis furthermore shows that the principal-agent-logic known from Westminster systems with the prime minister being largely sovereign in hiring and firing cabinet members must be adapted to the German context of frequent coalition governments. In coalition governments, only ministers from the same party as the prime minister exhibit higher hazards for forced exits, while ministers from other coalition partners are much safer in that regard

A New Measure of Political Stability - Portfolio Duration in the German Länder and its Determinants (1990-2010)

This article introduces the measure of portfolio duration as an indicator for political stability in democratic parliamentary systems. It expands the discussion that has mostly focused on government durability and overall ministerial tenure in cabinet by the time a minister remains as head of a ministry. A newly compiled dataset covering all German Länder ministers for the period 1990-2010 is analyzed using descriptive statistics and a Cox-model. Empirical evidence shows significant differences between the Länder and the survival analysis verifies that aggregate factors describing the political landscape, like the type of government or the ideological distance between coalition members, influence portfolio duration much stronger than biographic characteristics do. Therefore, at least at the level of the German Länder political and institutional factors are of utmost relevance when it comes to political stability understood in terms of portfolio duration.Dieser Artikel führt ein neues Maß für politische Stabilität ein: die Amtsdauer eines Ministers in einem spezifischen Ministerium. Damit erweitert er die bisherige Diskussion, welche sich primär auf die Dauerhaftigkeit von Regierungen und die gesamte Amtsdauer von Ministern im Kabinett kaprizierte um einen spezifischen Faktor, nämlich die Dauer, die ein Minister seinem Ministerium vorsteht. Ein neu erhobener Datensatz, der alle Landesminister von 1990 bis 2010 beinhaltet, wird sowohl deskriptiv statistisch als auch mit einem Cox-Modell analysiert. Es zeigt sich, dass signifikante Unterschiede zwischen den Bundesländern bestehen und dass es insbesondere Faktoren auf der Aggregatebene sind, die die Amtsdauer deutlich stärker beeinflussen als biographische Charakteristika der Minister selbst. Insofern spielt zumindest auf der Ebene der Bundesländer die politisch-institutionelle Umgebung in der ein Minister arbeitet eine große Rolle für die politische Stabilität wie sie in diesem Artikel verstanden wird

WE have to change! The carbon footprint of ECPR general conferences and ways to reduce it

The political consequences of climate change have been topics at numerous political science conferences. Contrary to the plurality of discussions at these meetings, it is striking that there is no systematic account of the carbon footprint of political science conferences themselves. Applying a GIS-based approach I estimate the travel induced greenhouse gas emissions of the last six ECPR General Conferences (2013-18). The results show that for the five conferences that took part in Europe the average emissions per attendee were between 0.5-1.3 tons CO2-equivalents. At the 2015 conference in Montreal it were even 1.9-3.4 tons. Compared to estimations based on the latest IPCC reports which call for a reduction of per capita emissions to 2.5 tons by 2030 and even 0.7 tons by 2050 in order to keep on track with the 1.5-degree goal, the travel induced GHG-emissions of ECPR conferences are very high. Yet, further estimations demonstrate that significant emission reductions are possible: by choosing more central conference venues, promoting low-emission landbound means of transportation and introducing online participation for researchers from far away, the carbon footprint could be reduced by 75-90 per cent. The article also gives concrete recommendations how the carbon footprint of conferences could be reduced

Pathways to Karlsruhe: A Sequence Analysis of the Careers of German Federal Constitutional Court Judges

Judges of the German Federal Constitutional Court can be seen as both judicial and political elites. Yet, up to now there is no systematic work on the Court's' judges and especially their careers prior to their appointments. Using sequence analysis, I identify four relatively distinct clusters of career characteristics: academia, administration (and administrative courts), ordinary jurisdiction and politics. Judges whose career background is limited to the judicial sphere mostly advance from a level below the Länder to the Länder and then on to the federal level, while those with a background in politics or administration switch less often among them. Furthermore, I find little evidence to suggest that differences in the judges' career paths can be explained by reference to the body that elected them (Bundestag or Bundesrat) or the party that nominated them (CDU/CSU or SPD). The article also illustrates the possibilities of sequence analysis for elite studies

Comparing socialization, cultural and individual level effects on attitudes towards nuclear energy - A multilevel analysis of 27 European countries

Despite visible cross-country variation in survey data on attitudes towards nuclear power in Europe, studies of nuclear risk perception have predominantly related peoples’ attitudes to individual level factors. To account for the variance at the country-level, multilevel regression analysis, allowing for the integration of both individual and aggregate level factors, is proposed as a more fitting tool. Our model analyzes data from a 2008 Eurobarometer Special Issue on attitudes to nuclear energy. Apart from socio-demographic factors, geographic distance to the nearest nuclear power plant, knowledge concerning nuclear issues, trust in official sources as well as self-placement on a political scale show influences on attitudes towards nuclear energy at the individual level. At a country level, dependence on foreign energy sources and the electricity price do not prove significant, while socio-cultural factors, political socialization through Green parties and a familiarity effect are particularly important. The results suggest that the integration of aggregate level factors may help to develop a more complete understanding of public perceptions and of the effects of culture and socialization on attitudes

Patterns of Publishing in Political Science Journals: An Overview of Our Profession Using Bibliographic Data and a Co-Authorship Network

We construct a co-authorship network of the global political science community. Two scientists are connected, if they have co-authored a paper. We draw on over 67,000 papers published 1990-2013 in one of today's 96 core journals. The network comprises over 40,000 authors located worldwide. We find that the community forms a single, interconnected component plus a large number of unconnected authors. While some are highly productive in terms of publications, the majority published just a single paper, suggesting a large amount of turnover in the community. Using information on the papers (e.g. title, journal, abstract), we trace out how different sub-communities organize and interconnect, how journals reach into the community and how individual scientists cooperate. We also investigate how the network has evolved during the last two decades. Our analysis is supplemented with a bibliographic nalysis that traces out major changes in publication patterns

Hierarchical, Decentralized, or Something Else? Opposition Networks in the German Bundestag

Members of the German parliament may force government to publicly answer questions by issuing minor interpellations (kleine Anfragen). We use 3,608 interpellations from the session 2009-13 that have been signed by authoring and supporting members to construct the social network of support relations among members within the three opposition parties. We find that parties differ markedly in terms of internal structure. While social democrats organize hierarchically, Greens cooperate horizontally. The network for socialist Linke in contrast shows signs of homophily and social segregation. Our approach yields a novel perspective on intraparty politics in parliamentary systems which are notoriously difficult to analyze

Oral Questions in the European Parliament: A Network Analysis

Internal working structures within parliaments are notoriously hard to capture. While analyses based on bill co-sponsorship work for the US Congress, this approach is not feasible in many parliamentary systems. Drawing on data from the European Parliament's legislative term of 2009-2014 this article shows that parliamentary questions can be another option. Members of the European Parliament may demand information from the Council or the Commission through oral questions. We take advantage of the fact that these questions are signed by their authors and construct a social network of members of the Parliament that support each other's oral questions. This allows investigating how members and their groups and committees cooperate to control both Council and Commission. Our approach helps to map out the internal structure of the party groups and explore which forces shape the global network. We find that cooperation is mostly driven by party group membership with ALDE, Green/EFA, and GUENGL turning out as the most cohesive groups while SD is internally rather loosely connected. The second strongest clustering characteristic is a legislators' native country

"New Terrorism" = Higher Brutality? An Empirical Test of the "Brutalization Thesis"

This article focuses on the so-called "brutalization" of terrorism. The brutalization thesis as part of the larger theoretical concept of "new terrorism" argues that "new terrorism" is more brutal than "old terrorism." Many scholars claim that the 9/11 attacks mark the beginning of a new era of terrorism that has lifted international as well as domestic terrorism to a new level of violent brutality. Others argue that this process had already started in the early 1990s. After discussing possible ways to operationalize a brutalization of terrorism, for example focusing on suicide bombings or terrorist attacks against soft targets, this article tests the empirical credibility of the brutalization thesis regarding both potential starting points. Data from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) shows that only three out of nine indicators increased significantly during the 1990s, partially backing the idea of a general brutalization, whereas increasing numbers of suicide attacks and beheadings after 9/11 support the notion of a qualitative change in terrorism and its brutality connected with the idea of maximizing media and public attention. Yet, these developments are regionally limited and the brutality of this "new terrorism" exceeds the levels known from the zenith of "old terrorism" in the 1970s and 1980s in only a few cases