Development of a web-based modeling system using metadata concepts and databases

The execution of hydrodynamic models typically requires the management of large amounts of data and also utilizes considerable computational resources. Powerful and robust servers with extensive storage capabilities are therefore desirable for rapid execution of numerical simulations. Unfortunately, it is not always possible for an individual to afford the necessary facilities whereas a powerful central computer system can be the viable alternative to serve many clients. The simplest way for a client to communicate with the central simulation server is via the internet and through a web browser. This kind of simulation has been classified as web based simulation, or WBS. The main advantages of web based simulation include platform independent access and easy access from virtually anywhere. In this study the formal steps that need to be taken for adapting a legacy hydrodynamic code such that it can be used for large scale applications in a WBS environment is investigated. Standardized description of the hydrodynamic model data (metadata) that has been created using geographical information metadata, e.g. the ISO 19115:2003 standard is introduced. A formal specification of the simulation domain or ontology has been developed to share and retrieve this information unambiguously. Ontologies have been successfully applied in many fields requiring intensive data retrieval, efficient searching, or analyzing the domain knowledge. A simulation ontology is developed, which can be applied for analyses and future reuse of the simulation domain knowledge. The interface of the WBS environment has been developed based on the commonly used standard Model-View-Controller (MVC) architecture, which separates business logic from its presentation.Ph.D., Civil Engineering -- Drexel University, 200

Developing a forecasting model for cholera incidence in Dhaka megacity through time series climate data.

Cholera, an acute diarrheal disease spread by lack of hygiene and contaminated water, is a major public health risk in many countries. As cholera is triggered by environmental conditions influenced by climatic variables, establishing a correlation between cholera incidence and climatic variables would provide an opportunity to develop a cholera forecasting model. Considering the auto-regressive nature and the seasonal behavioral patterns of cholera, a seasonal-auto-regressive-integrated-moving-average (SARIMA) model was used for time-series analysis during 2000-2013. As both rainfall (r = 0.43) and maximum temperature (r = 0.56) have the strongest influence on the occurrence of cholera incidence, single-variable (SVMs) and multi-variable SARIMA models (MVMs) were developed, compared and tested for evaluating their relationship with cholera incidence. A low relationship was found with relative humidity (r = 0.28), ENSO (r = 0.21) and SOI (r = -0.23). Using SVM for a 1 °C increase in maximum temperature at one-month lead time showed a 7% increase of cholera incidence (p < 0.001). However, MVM (AIC = 15, BIC = 36) showed better performance than SVM (AIC = 21, BIC = 39). An MVM using rainfall and monthly mean daily maximum temperature with a one-month lead time showed a better fit (RMSE = 14.7, MAE = 11) than the MVM with no lead time (RMSE = 16.2, MAE = 13.2) in forecasting. This result will assist in predicting cholera risks and better preparedness for public health management in the future

Climate impact emergence and flood peak synchronization projections in the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna basins under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios

The densely populated delta of the three river systems of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna is highly prone to floods. Potential climate change-related increases in flood intensity are therefore of major societal concern as more than 40 million people live in flood-prone areas in downstream Bangladesh. Here we report on new flood projections using a hydrological model forced by bias-adjusted ensembles of the latest-generation global climate models of CMIP6 (SSP5-8.5/SSP1-2.6) in comparison to CMIP5 (RCP8.5/RCP2.6). Results suggest increases in peak flow magnitude of 36% (16%) on average under SSP5-8.5 (SSP1-2.6), compared to 60% (17%) under RCP8.5 (RCP2.6) by 2070-2099 relative to 1971-2000. Under RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 (2070-2099), the largest increase in flood risk is projected for the Ganges watershed, where higher flood peaks become the ‘new norm’ as early as mid-2030 implying a relatively short time window for adaptation. In the Brahmaputra and Meghna rivers, the climate impact signal on peak flow emerges after 2070 (CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections). Flood peak synchronization, when annual peak flow occurs simultaneously at (at least) two rivers leading to large flooding events within Bangladesh, show a consistent increase under both projections. While the variability across the ensemble remains high, the increases in flood magnitude are robust in the study basins. Our findings emphasize the need of stringent climate mitigation policies to reduce the climate change impact on peak flows (as presented using SSP1-2.6/RCP2.6) and to subsequently minimize adverse socioeconomic impacts and adaptation costs. Considering Bangladesh’s high overall vulnerability to climate change and its downstream location, synergies between climate change adaptation and mitigation and transboundary cooperation will need to be strengthened to improve overall climate resilience and achieve sustainable development

Creating the conditions for scaling up the integration of reproductive health services for men in health and family welfare centers in Bangladesh

An operations research study, supported by the Population Council’s Frontiers in Reproductive Health (FRONTIERS) program, showed that reproductive health services for men could be feasibly and acceptably integrated within the Health and Family Welfare Centres in Bangladesh, which have been primarily women-centered health facilities. Given these findings, a follow-up study was implemented to create the conditions for scaling up the model through identifying and piloting the operational details to consider when taking the intervention to scale. The findings presented in this report suggest that this model of service delivery and training can be scaled up countrywide, preferably in stages. To ensure compliance with systematic screening by all providers, the report recommends instituting supportive supervision, especially during the early stages of expansion, and holding clinical training in a facility where many RTI/STI cases are treated (such as a district hospital)

Increased population exposure to Amphan‐scale cyclones under future climates

International audienceAbstract Southern Asia experiences some of the most damaging climate events in the world, with loss of life from some cyclones in the hundreds of thousands. Despite this, research on climate extremes in the region is substantially lacking compared to other parts of the world. To understand the narrative of how an extreme event in the region may change in the future, we consider Super Cyclone Amphan, which made landfall in May 2020, bringing storm surges of 2–4 m to coastlines of India and Bangladesh. Using the latest CMIP6 climate model projections, coupled with storm surge, hydrological, and socio‐economic models, we consider how the population exposure to a storm surge of Amphan's scale changes in the future. We vary future sea level rise and population changes consistent with projections out to 2100, but keep other factors constant. Both India and Bangladesh will be negatively impacted, with India showing >200% increased exposure to extreme storm surge flooding (>3 m) under a high emissions scenario and Bangladesh showing an increase in exposure of >80% for low‐level flooding (>0.1 m). It is only when we follow a low‐emission scenario, consistent with the 2°C Paris Agreement Goal, that we see no real change in Bangladesh's storm surge exposure, mainly due to the population and climate signals cancelling each other out. For India, even with this low‐emission scenario, increases in flood exposure are still substantial (>50%). While here we attribute only the storm surge flooding component of the event to climate change, we highlight that tropical cyclones are multifaceted, and damages are often an integration of physical and social components. We recommend that future climate risk assessments explicitly account for potential compounding factors

INTEREST GROUPS IN RESPONSE TO THE OBAMACARE: THE CHANGING ORGANIZATIONAL FIELD OF HEALTH CARE POLICY IN THE UNITED STATES

This dissertation explores the health care policy organizational field in the United States (U.S.) and its changes due to the implementation of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA). In particular, this study provides the interest groups’ role in the ACA’s evolution process. The ACA was enacted in 2010 by the US Congress highlighting some major reform goals, which included, i) expanding states’ Medicaid expansions and health insurance market reforms to allow greater access to health care services for all Americans, ii) regulating health care providers and lowering costs, and iii) ensuring patient and consumer protection. The policy reform impacted the wide range of interest groups who were societal level actors representing the health care provider groups, hospitals, health insurance companies, and pharmaceutical companies, and patients, etc. The ACA emphasized changes in both structure and culture of the health care policy field to ensure greater institutional representation of the federal government in working with various actors in the health care policy field. This study followed two theoretical guidelines, which included 1) the new-institutionalism theory emphasizing the structuration, dependency, and legitimacy factors in actors’ strategies in the health care policy organizational field and 2) Pierre Bourdieu’s perspectives of the field focusing on the cultural, social and political, economic, and symbolic capitals and actors’ habitus or predispositions due to the ACA in the health care policy field. Besides, the federal government, the states, and the roles of the five health care related professional organizations were investigated. These organizations included, 1) The American Medical Association (AMA), 2) The American Hospital Association (AHA), 3) The America’s Health Insurance Plans (AHIP), 4) The Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA), and 5) The AARP Inc. (a.k.a. American Association for Retired Persons). I studied the testimonies of these organizations at the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate and their lobbying activities as actors influencing the health care legislative policies. The qualitative analyses of both manifest and latent contents of the ACA’s legislature and testimonies of the interest groups showed how different actors “wanted” the ACA to be and how they won and lost in the legislative process. Further, how the interest groups used various capitals to actuate the ACA implementation? A focus on the state level legislative processes amplified how the ACA’s implementation is primarily reliant on the state level actors. This study aims to expand knowledge in the area of the health care policy change management. Further, the study provides cross-disciplinary knowledge exchange opportunity for other disciplines, such as, management, public policy, and health care administration to understand health care policy processes through sociological lens

Hotspot of land-sea interaction: the world’s delta

International audienc