Western boundary currents and climate change

A recent paper in Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans connects recent changes in atmospheric circulation to poleward movement and intensification of western boundary currents. Causes and characteristics of past and future trends in surface wind stress and western boundary currents are discussed here

Quantifying Eddy Feedbacks and Forcings in the Tropospheric Response to Stratospheric Sudden Warmings

This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from American Meteorological Society via https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-16-0056.1Abstract The equatorward shift of the zonal-mean midlatitude tropospheric jet following a stratospheric sudden warming in a comprehensive stratosphere-resolving model is found to be well quantified by the simple model of tropospheric eddy feedbacks proposed by Lorenz and Hartmann. This permits a decomposition of the shift into a component driven by the stratospheric anomalies and a component driven by tropospheric feedbacks. This is done by extending the simple model to include three effective forcing mechanisms by which the stratosphere may influence the tropospheric jet. These include 1) the zonally symmetric adjustments associated with the mean meridional circulation and the direct influence of the stratospheric anomalies on 2) the tropospheric synoptic-scale or 3) the tropospheric planetary-scale eddies. Although the anomalous tropospheric winds are primarily maintained against surface friction by the synoptic-scale eddies, this response can be entirely attributed to the eddy feedback term. The response of the planetary-scale eddies, in contrast, can be directly attributed to the stratosphere. The zonally symmetric tropospheric circulation associated with downward control is found to play little role in driving the tropospheric response. The prospects of applying this methodology to reanalysis data are also considered, but statistical limitations and the relatively weak projection of the vertically integrated composite wind anomalies onto the leading EOF preclude any conclusions from being drawn.PH acknowledges funding support from the European Research Council through the ACCI project (grant number 267760) lead by John Pyle and from an NSERC post-doctoral fellowship. IRS acknowledges support from National Science Foundation funding to the National Center for Atmospheric Research and NSF award AGS-1317469

Dynamics of the lower stratospheric circulation response to ENSO

A robust feature of the observed response to El Nin˜o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an altered circulation in the lower stratosphere. When sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific are warmer there is enhanced upwelling and cooling in the tropical lower stratosphere and downwelling and warming in the midlatitudes, while the opposite is true of cooler SSTs. The midlatitude lower stratospheric response to ENSO is larger in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) than in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). In this study the dynamical version of the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM) is used to simulate 25 realizations of the atmospheric response to the 1982/83 El Nin˜o and the 1973/74 La Nin˜ a. This version ofCMAMis a comprehensive high-top general circulation model that does not include interactive chemistry. The observed lower stratospheric response to ENSO is well reproduced by the simulations, allowing them to be used to investigate the mechanisms involved. Both the observed and simulated responses maximize in December–March and so this study focuses on understanding the mechanisms involved in that season. The response in tropical upwelling is predominantly driven by anomalous transient synoptic-scale wave drag in the SH subtropical lower stratosphere, which is also responsible for the compensating SH midlatitude response. This altered wave drag stems from an altered upward flux of wave activity from the troposphere into the lower stratosphere between 208 and 408S. The altered flux of wave activity can be divided into two distinct components. In the Pacific, the acceleration of the zonal wind in the subtropics from the warmer tropical SSTs results in a region between the midlatitude and subtropical jets where there is an enhanced source of low phase speed eddies. At other longitudes, an equatorward shift of the midlatitude jet from the extratropical tropospheric response to El Nin˜o results in an enhanced source of waves of higher phase speeds in the subtropics. The altered resolved wave drag is only apparent in the SH and the difference between the two hemispheres can be related to the difference in the climatological jet structures in this season and the projection of the wind anomalies associated with ENSO onto those structures

The Downward Influence of Stratospheric Sudden Warmings

The coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere following two major stratospheric sudden warmings is studied in the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model using a nudging technique by which the zonal-mean evolution of the reference sudden warmings are artificially induced in an ~100-member ensemble spun off from a control simulation. Both reference warmings are taken from a freely running integration of the model. One event is a displacement, the other is a split, and both are followed by extended recoveries in the lower stratosphere. The methodology permits a statistically robust study of their influence on the troposphere below. The nudged ensembles exhibit a tropospheric annular mode response closely analogous to that seen in observations, confirming the downward influence of sudden warmings on the troposphere in a comprehensive model. This tropospheric response coincides more closely with the lower-stratospheric annular mode anomalies than with the midstratospheric wind reversal. In addition to the expected synoptic-scale eddy feedback, the planetary-scale eddies also reinforce the tropospheric wind changes, apparently responding directly to the stratospheric anomalies. Furthermore, despite the zonal symmetry of the stratospheric perturbation, a highly zonally asymmetric near-surface response is produced, corresponding to a strongly negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation with a much weaker response over the Pacific basin that matches composites of sudden warmings from the Interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim). Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project models exhibit a similar response, though in most models the response’s magnitude is underrepresented

Southern annular mode dynamics in observations and models, Part II: Eddy feedbacks

Many global climate models (GCMs) have trouble simulating Southern Annular Mode (SAM) variability correctly, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere summer season where it tends to be too persistent. In this two part study, a suite of experiments with the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM) is analyzed to improve our understanding of the dynamics of SAM variability and its deficiencies in GCMs. Here, an examination of the eddy-mean flow feedbacks is presented by quantification of the feedback strength as a function of zonal scale and season using a new methodology that accounts for intraseasonal forcing of the SAM. In the observed atmosphere, in the summer season, a strong negative feedback by planetary scale waves, in particular zonal wavenumber 3, is found in a localized region in the south west Pacific. It cancels a large proportion of the positive feedback by synoptic and smaller scale eddies in the zonal mean, resulting in a very weak overall eddy feedback on the SAM. CMAM is deficient in this negative feedback by planetary scale waves, making a substantial contribution to its bias in summertime SAM persistence. Furthermore, this bias is not alleviated by artificially improving the climatological circulation, suggesting that climatological circulation biases are not the cause of the planetary wave feedback deficiency in the model. Analysis of the summertime eddy feedbacks in the CMIP-5 models confirms that this is indeed a common problem among GCMs, suggesting that understanding this planetary wave feedback and the reason for its deficiency in GCMs is key to improving the fidelity of simulated SAM variability in the summer season

Southern annular mode dynamics in observations and models, Part I: The influence of climatological zonal wind biases in a comprehensive GCM

A common bias among global climate models (GCMs) is that they exhibit tropospheric southern annular mode (SAM) variability that is much too persistent in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) summertime. This is of concern for the ability to accurately predict future SH circulation changes, so it is important that it be understood and alleviated. In this two-part study, specifically targeted experiments with the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM) are used to improve understanding of the enhanced summertime SAM persistence. Given the ubiquity of this bias among comprehensive GCMs, it is likely that the results will be relevant for other climate models. Here, in Part I, the influence of climatological circulation biases on SAM variability is assessed, with a particular focus on two common biases that could enhance summertime SAM persistence: the too-late breakdown of the Antarctic stratospheric vortex and the equatorward bias in the SH tropospheric midlatitude jet. Four simulations are used to investigate the role of each of these biases in CMAM. Nudging and bias correcting procedures are used to systematically remove zonal-mean stratospheric variability and/or remove climatological zonal wind biases. The SAM time-scale bias is not alleviated by improving either the timing of the stratospheric vortex breakdown or the climatological jet structure. Even in the absence of stratospheric variability and with an improved climatological circulation, the model time scales are biased long. This points toward a bias in internal tropospheric dynamics that is not caused by the tropospheric jet structure bias. The underlying cause of this is examined in more detail in Part II of this study

A Diagnosis of the Seasonally and Longitudinally Varying Midlatitude Circulation Response to Global Warming

Zonal-mean or basin-mean analyses often conclude that the midlatitude circulation will undergo a poleward shift with global warming. In this study, the models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project are used to provide a detailed examination of midlatitude circulation change as a function of longitude and season. The two-dimensional vertically integrated momentum budget is used to identify the dominant terms that maintain the anomalous surface wind stress, thereby allowing a distinction between features that are maintained by high-frequency eddies and those that involve changes in the lower-frequency or stationary flow. In the zonal mean, in each season and hemisphere there is a poleward shifting of the midlatitude surface wind stress, primarily maintained by high-frequency transient eddies. This is not necessarily the case locally. In the Southern Hemisphere, for the most part, the interpretation of the response as being a high-frequency eddy-driven poleward shifting of the midlatitude westerlies holds true. The Northern Hemisphere is considerably more complex with only the fall months showing a robust poleward shift of both the Atlantic and Pacific jets. During the winter months the jet in the east Pacific actually shifts equatorward and the Atlantic jet strengthens over Europe. An important role for altered climatological stationary waves in these responses is found. This motivates future work that should focus on zonal asymmetries and stationary wave changes, as well as the changes in high-frequency transients that bring about the poleward shifting of the westerlies in the zonal mean

The role of the stratosphere in future mid-latitude climate projections

One of the greatest uncertainties when it comes to future projections of regional climate is how the large-scale atmospheric circulation will change (Shepherd 2014). While there is a general consensus among models on a zonal mean poleward shifting of the mid-latitude westerlies and associated storm tracks (Yin 2005; Kidston and Gerber 2010; Chang et al. 2012; Swart and Fyfe 2012; Wilcox et al. 2012; Barnes and Polvani 2013), there is a large spread in the magnitude of this response. In addition to this zonal mean, poleward shifting view, there are more localized changes in the circulation associated with altered stationary wave patterns (Stephenson and Held 1993; Joseph et al. 2004; Simpson et al. 2014). For many of these predicted changes, we do not have a good physical understanding of the mechanisms that produce them, or the factors that govern their uncertainty. The stratosphere and how it is expected to change in the future is one source of uncertainty, among many, in future tropospheric mid-latitude circulation change. There are a variety of ways in which the stratosphere’s mean state, variability and composition may impact on tropospheric climate change. Instead of providing an exhaustive review of this topic, we focus on the role of changes in the extra-tropical mean state of the stratosphere in future projections of tropospheric mid-latitude climate by considering two particular aspects. For the Northern Hemisphere we discuss the impact of uncertainty in future changes in the stratospheric polar vortex on tropospheric climate change. For the Southern Hemisphere we discuss the relative roles of stratospheric ozone depletion and changing greenhouse gas concentrations on the future evolution of the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitude jet stream

A stratospheric pathway linking a colder Siberia to Barents-Kara Sea sea ice loss

Previous studies have extensively investigated the impact of Arctic sea ice anomalies on the midlatitude circulation and associated surface climate in winter. However, there is an ongoing scientific debate regarding whether and how sea ice retreat results in the observed cold anomaly over the adjacent continents. We present a robust “cold Siberia” pattern in the winter following sea ice loss over the Barents-Kara seas in late autumn in an advanced atmospheric general circulation model, with a well-resolved stratosphere. Additional targeted experiments reveal that the stratospheric response to sea ice forcing is crucial in the development of cold conditions over Siberia, indicating the dominant role of the stratospheric pathway compared with the direct response within the troposphere. In particular, the downward influence of the stratospheric circulation anomaly significantly intensifies the ridge near the Ural Mountains and the trough over East Asia. The persistently intensified ridge and trough favor more frequent cold air outbreaks and colder winters over Siberia. This finding has important implications for improving seasonal climate prediction of midlatitude cold events. The results also suggest that the model performance in representing the stratosphere-troposphere coupling could be an important source of the discrepancy between recent studies

Mediterranean Summer Climate and the Importance of Middle East Topography

In summer, the atmospheric circulation over the Mediterranean is characterized by localized intense subsidence and low-level northerlies over the central to eastern portion of the basin. Here, simulations with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 are used to investigate the influence of the elevated terrain of North Africa and the Middle East on this summertime circulation. This builds on previous work that recognized a role for North African topography in localizing the Mediterranean subsidence. By flattening the two regions of elevated terrain in the model, it is demonstrated that, while they both conspire to produce about 30% of the summertime subsidence, contrary to previous work, the mountains of the Middle East dominate in this topographic contribution by far. This topography, consisting primarily of the Zagros mountain range, alters the circulation throughout the depth of the troposphere over the Mediterranean and farther east. The model results suggest that about 20% of the Mediterranean summertime moisture deficit can be attributed to this mountain-induced circulation. This topography, therefore, plays an important role in the climate of the Mediterranean and the large-scale circulation over the rest of Eurasia during the summer. Further stationary wave modeling reveals that the mountain influence is produced via mechanical forcing of the flow. The greatest influence of the topography occurs when the low-level incident flow is easterly, as happens during the summer, primarily because of the presence of condensational heating over Asia. During other seasons, when the low-level incident flow is westerly, the influence of Middle East topography on the Mediterranean is negligible