Effect of military spending on private investment in Nigeria: does a crowding-out effect exist?

This study adopts ARDL and VAR estimation methods to examine whether military spending crowd-out or crowd-in private investment in Nigeria. We use the data that covers the period from 1970 to 2019. Our results, based on the ARDL method, show that military spending only crowds-out private investment in the short run. In the long run, military spending crowds in private investment. The results are robust to the use of alternative estimation methods. Specifically, IRF results show that military spending has a contemporaneous negative effect on private investment. However, the negative effect turns positive after the third period. Also, FEVD results show that most of the variation in private investment is explained by its shock and few by military spending. Our findings have policy implications. While it is advisable to spend more on the military to curtail the activities of insurgents, bandits and kidnappers and to restore confidence in investors, it is important also to take cognisance of the fact that military spending can crowd out private investment

ON THE DETERMINANTS OF UNEMPLOYMENT IN NIGERIA: WHAT ARE THE ROLES OF TRADE OPENNESS AND CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE?

Attention of international trade and macroeconomic experts has focused on the effect of international trade, precisely trade openness, on economic growth and by extension on unemployment rate, albeit with mixed results. However, scanty attention has been drawn towards the effect of current account balance on unemployment rate despite the arguments from different quarters trailing such relationship. By employing Autoregressive Distribution Lag estimation technique, this study specifically focuses on the short-run dynamic and long-run effects of trade openness and current account balance on unemployment rate in Nigeria using the data that span 1981-2014. We found that trade openness worsens unemployment rate both in the short-run and long run. We also discovered that in the short run, current account balance increases unemployment rate but reduces it in the long run. Control variables used in the study such as inflation rate, exchange rate, and FDI followed a priori expectation while real GDP, wages and government consumption expenditure failed to follow a priori expectation. We, therefore, concluded that there is need for sound trade and macroeconomic policies to aid domestic firms’ production to ensure international competitiveness of these firms so as to guarantee employment generation

Dynamic Nexus between Government Revenues and Expenditures in Nigeria: Evidence from Asymmetric Causality and Cointegration Methods

The incessant fiscal deficit being experienced in different countries across the world has raised concerns about the ability of government to properly manage its revenues and expenditures. This has necessitated a flurry of studies on the relationship between government revenues and government expenditures over time. However, empirical evidence appears to be mixed, even within a country, depending on the methodological approaches adopted by each researcher. In the light of this, this study examines the asymmetric causality and cointegration between revenues and expenditures using aggregated and disaggregated data. The results of linear causality tests of Granger (1969) and Toda-Yamamoto (1995) support fiscal synchronisation hypothesis while those of nonlinear causality test of Diks and Panchenko (2006) support revenue-spending hypothesis. The results further show the existence of asymmetric cointegration between revenues and expenditures in the short-run and the long-run. The final results obtained from the decomposition of revenues into the positive and negative components show that positive change in revenues has a positive effect on expenditures and vice versa for a negative change in revenues. Based on these findings, the panacea proposed to over-reliance in revenues, particularly oil revenues as a determinant of government expenditures, is the proper management of oil revenues and other sources of revenues. The government would also need to diversify the economy so that more revenues could be available to it from other sources to finance its expenditures

Dynamic Nexus between Government Revenues and Expenditures in Nigeria: Evidence from Asymmetric Causality and Cointegration Methods

The incessant fiscal deficit being experienced in different countries across the world has raised concerns about the ability of government to properly manage its revenues and expenditures. This has necessitated a flurry of studies on the relationship between government revenues and government expenditures over time. However, empirical evidence appears to be mixed, even within a country, depending on the methodological approaches adopted by each researcher. In the light of this, this study examines the asymmetric causality and cointegration between revenues and expenditures using aggregated and disaggregated data. The results of linear causality tests of Granger (1969) and Toda-Yamamoto (1995) support fiscal synchronisation hypothesis while those of nonlinear causality test of Diks and Panchenko (2006) support revenue-spending hypothesis. The results further show the existence of asymmetric cointegration between revenues and expenditures in the short-run and the long-run. The final results obtained from the decomposition of revenues into the positive and negative components show that positive change in revenues has a positive effect on expenditures and vice versa for a negative change in revenues. Based on these findings, the panacea proposed to over-reliance in revenues, particularly oil revenues as a determinant of government expenditures, is the proper management of oil revenues and other sources of revenues. The government would also need to diversify the economy so that more revenues could be available to it from other sources to finance its expenditures

Do government revenues matter for economic growth? Evidence from Nigeria

The bursting of crude oil prices in the international market since mid-2014 has resulted in dwindling oil revenue, which has led to economic recession in Nigeria. The recession has further exacerbated existing socioeconomic problems bedeviling the country. In the light of this, we examined the effect of government revenues (oil and non-oil revenues) on economic growth, both in the short-run and the long-run using autoregressive distributed lag method. Our findings show that government revenues are indispensable to economic growth in Nigeria. In addition, we found that economic growth is more responsive to oil revenue than non-oil revenue. Based on our findings, we advocate for effective and efficient use of government revenues. Furthermore, since oil revenue fluctuates more than non-oil revenue, we further advocate for creation of an enabling business environment geared towards improving the contribution of the non-oil sector to the government revenue base

Firm Financial Status and Investment Behaviour: Evidence from Manufacturing Firms in Nigeria

The study examines firm’s investment behaviour sensitivity to cash flow before, during and after the recent global financial crisis using the data of 28 firms listed on the Nigerian Stock Market during the period from 2001 to 2012. The contribution of the study to the existing literature rests on using financial crisis as basis for classifying firms as either financially constrained or unconstrained. Employing the panel data and instrumental variable estimation techniques, the study finds that firms’ investment behaviour sensitivity to cash flow was higher during the financial crisis than before or after the financial crisis. In other words, Nigerian firms were highly financially constrained during the last financial crisis

ICT sector, output and employment generation in Nigeria: Input-output approach

This study assesses the contributions of ICT sector to the Nigerian economy after the reform of the sector in 2001. Using the input-output table for 2001, 2006 and 2011, the study specifically examines the output and employment contributions of ICT sector to sectors of the economy including the ICT sector itself. The study computes the contributions along the lines of direct, indirect and induced output and employment effects of the ICT sector’s activity. The study finds that ICT sector has contributed some output and employment the economy through its linkage with other sectors. Among the sectors, services sector seems to benefit much more from ICT sector reform than any other sector. While most of the benefits accrue to other sectors come from the induced effects of ICT reform, the benefits that accrue to ICT sector itself come mainly from the indirect effects that arise from the inter-sectoral linkages through the buying and selling of ICT sector products, services and contracts. Based on these findings, we propose that for the economy to continue to benefit from ICT sector growth and expansion, all stakeholders in the sector and the government through the Ministry of Communication and Nigerian Communication Commission should work out policies that would create enabling environment for the sector to thrive more efficiently and also to provide an effective framework that could further integrate the ICT sector with the rest of the sector in the economy

What nexus exists between exchange rate and trade balance? The case of Nigeria vis-à-vis UK, US and Hong Kong

The role of exchange rate movements in determining the trading position of a country and the ultimate welfare of its people vis-à-vis its trading partners is enormous. Consequently, this study is conducted to examine the nature of the trading relationship between Nigeria and its trading partners in three continents-North America, Europe and Asia. The study specifically focuses on how the fluctuation of naira vis-à-vis the pound sterling, dollar and Yuan affects Nigeria's trading position in relation to UK, US and Hong Kong (China). Quarterly data that span the period from 1981 to 2015 were used and linear and Non-linear ARDL estimation techniques were deployed to prove the existence of linear and nonlinear J-Curve. The findings, based on linear ARDL, show no proof of J-Curve in all the models, however, cointegration exists between the trade balance and the exchange rate dynamics. In non-linear ARDL, the existence of J-Curve is only observed in Nigeria-Hong Kong model. However, the findings show that there is both the existence of cointegration and the short-run and the long-run asymmetric nexus between exchange rate dynamics and trade balance in all the models. The overarching implication of the finding is that devaluation of Naira will not improve Nigeria’s trading position vis-à-vis trading partners considered

Attaining Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): New evidence on foreign aid and the "bundling" of domestic revenue mobilization in sub-Saharan Africa

With the global sustainable development goals, it has become imperative for developing countries, especially sub-Saharan African countries, to think inward on ways to increase domestically mobilized revenue. The recovery of the global economy within the last few years has increased foreign assistance inflow into African countries. However, the direction of its impact on domestic mobilized revenue is unclear. This study revisited the relationship between foreign aid and domestic mobilized revenues for 32 sub-Saharan African countries using a more recent and novel dataset on tax revenue. We employed instrumental fixed effect Quantile regression, a novel technique in aid and tax revenue literature. The study findings show that the impact of foreign aid varies across tax revenue distribution. We found a negative and significant effect in countries with high tax effort, while the effect is insignificant in countries with low tax effort sub-Saharan African countries, especially those with low tax revenue, need to use foreign aid to strengthen their tax administration and adopt modern tax revenue collection technologies. As a result, sub-Saharan African countries should request advanced countries or donors to provide technical support in tax revenue mobilization

The effect of military spending on economic growth in MENA: evidence from method of moments quantile regression

Abstract This study adopted a novel quantile regression via moments to explore the effects of military spending on the distribution of economic growth of 14 MENA countries over the period from 1981 to 2019. The method, apart from enabling us to investigate the effects of military spending on the distribution of economic growth at different quantiles, also helps to address issues of heterogeneity and endogeneity characterising the panel studies. Our results showed that irrespective of measures of military spending and economic growth, an upsurge in military spending leads to a positive effect on economic growth at different quantiles, suggesting that military spending is productive and growth-enhancing in the MENA countries