Performance of critical care prognostic scoring systems in low and middle-income countries: a systematic review.

Background Prognostic models—used in critical care medicine for mortality predictions, for benchmarking and for illness stratification in clinical trials—have been validated predominantly in high-income countries. These results may not be reproducible in low or middle-income countries (LMICs), not only because of different case-mix characteristics but also because of missing predictor variables. The study objective was to systematically review literature on the use of critical care prognostic models in LMICs and assess their ability to discriminate between survivors and non-survivors at hospital discharge of those admitted to intensive care units (ICUs), their calibration, their accuracy, and the manner in which missing values were handled. Methods The PubMed database was searched in March 2017 to identify research articles reporting the use and performance of prognostic models in the evaluation of mortality in ICUs in LMICs. Studies carried out in ICUs in high-income countries or paediatric ICUs and studies that evaluated disease-specific scoring systems, were limited to a specific disease or single prognostic factor, were published only as abstracts, editorials, letters and systematic and narrative reviews or were not in English were excluded. Results Of the 2233 studies retrieved, 473 were searched and 50 articles reporting 119 models were included. Five articles described the development and evaluation of new models, whereas 114 articles externally validated Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation, the Simplified Acute Physiology Score and Mortality Probability Models or versions thereof. Missing values were only described in 34% of studies; exclusion and or imputation by normal values were used. Discrimination, calibration and accuracy were reported in 94.0%, 72.4% and 25% respectively. Good discrimination and calibration were reported in 88.9% and 58.3% respectively. However, only 10 evaluations that reported excellent discrimination also reported good calibration. Generalisability of the findings was limited by variability of inclusion and exclusion criteria, unavailability of post-ICU outcomes and missing value handling. Conclusions Robust interpretations regarding the applicability of prognostic models are currently hampered by poor adherence to reporting guidelines, especially when reporting missing value handling. Performance of mortality risk prediction models in LMIC ICUs is at best moderate, especially with limitations in calibration. This necessitates continued efforts to develop and validate LMIC models with readily available prognostic variables, perhaps aided by medical registries.</p

Performance of critical care prognostic scoring systems in low and middle-income countries: a systematic review.

Background Prognostic models—used in critical care medicine for mortality predictions, for benchmarking and for illness stratification in clinical trials—have been validated predominantly in high-income countries. These results may not be reproducible in low or middle-income countries (LMICs), not only because of different case-mix characteristics but also because of missing predictor variables. The study objective was to systematically review literature on the use of critical care prognostic models in LMICs and assess their ability to discriminate between survivors and non-survivors at hospital discharge of those admitted to intensive care units (ICUs), their calibration, their accuracy, and the manner in which missing values were handled. Methods The PubMed database was searched in March 2017 to identify research articles reporting the use and performance of prognostic models in the evaluation of mortality in ICUs in LMICs. Studies carried out in ICUs in high-income countries or paediatric ICUs and studies that evaluated disease-specific scoring systems, were limited to a specific disease or single prognostic factor, were published only as abstracts, editorials, letters and systematic and narrative reviews or were not in English were excluded. Results Of the 2233 studies retrieved, 473 were searched and 50 articles reporting 119 models were included. Five articles described the development and evaluation of new models, whereas 114 articles externally validated Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation, the Simplified Acute Physiology Score and Mortality Probability Models or versions thereof. Missing values were only described in 34% of studies; exclusion and or imputation by normal values were used. Discrimination, calibration and accuracy were reported in 94.0%, 72.4% and 25% respectively. Good discrimination and calibration were reported in 88.9% and 58.3% respectively. However, only 10 evaluations that reported excellent discrimination also reported good calibration. Generalisability of the findings was limited by variability of inclusion and exclusion criteria, unavailability of post-ICU outcomes and missing value handling. Conclusions Robust interpretations regarding the applicability of prognostic models are currently hampered by poor adherence to reporting guidelines, especially when reporting missing value handling. Performance of mortality risk prediction models in LMIC ICUs is at best moderate, especially with limitations in calibration. This necessitates continued efforts to develop and validate LMIC models with readily available prognostic variables, perhaps aided by medical registries.</p

A short, structured skills training course for critical care physiotherapists in a lower-middle income country

The aim of this article is to describe the delivery and acceptability of a short, structured training course for critical care physiotherapy and its effects on the knowledge and skills of the participants in Sri Lanka, a lower-middle income country.The two-day program combining short didactic sessions with small group workshops and skills stations was developed and delivered by local facilitators in partnership with an overseas specialist physiotherapist trainer. The impact was assessed using pre/post-course self-assessment, pre/post-course multiple-choice-question (MCQ) papers, and an end-of-course feedback questionnaire.Fifty-six physiotherapists (26% of critical care physiotherapists in Sri Lanka) participated. Overall confidence in common critical care physiotherapy skills improved from 11.6% to 59.2% in pre/post-training self-assessments, respectively. Post-course MCQ scores (mean score = 63.2) and percentage of passes (87.5%) were higher than pre-course scores (mean score = 36.6; percentage of passes = 12.5%). Overall feedback was very positive as 75% of the participants were highly satisfied with the course's contribution to improved critical care knowledge.This short, structured, critical care focused physiotherapy training has potential benefit to participating physiotherapists. Further, it provides an evidence that collaborative program can be planned and conducted successfully in a resource poor setting. This sustainable short course model may be adaptable to other resource-limited settings

A short, structured skills training course for critical care physiotherapists in a lower-middle income country

The aim of this article is to describe the delivery and acceptability of a short, structured training course for critical care physiotherapy and its effects on the knowledge and skills of the participants in Sri Lanka, a lower-middle income country.The two-day program combining short didactic sessions with small group workshops and skills stations was developed and delivered by local facilitators in partnership with an overseas specialist physiotherapist trainer. The impact was assessed using pre/post-course self-assessment, pre/post-course multiple-choice-question (MCQ) papers, and an end-of-course feedback questionnaire.Fifty-six physiotherapists (26% of critical care physiotherapists in Sri Lanka) participated. Overall confidence in common critical care physiotherapy skills improved from 11.6% to 59.2% in pre/post-training self-assessments, respectively. Post-course MCQ scores (mean score = 63.2) and percentage of passes (87.5%) were higher than pre-course scores (mean score = 36.6; percentage of passes = 12.5%). Overall feedback was very positive as 75% of the participants were highly satisfied with the course's contribution to improved critical care knowledge.This short, structured, critical care focused physiotherapy training has potential benefit to participating physiotherapists. Further, it provides an evidence that collaborative program can be planned and conducted successfully in a resource poor setting. This sustainable short course model may be adaptable to other resource-limited settings