Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Trend Analysis of Two Evapotranspiration-Based Drought Products and Their Mechanisms in Sub-Saharan Africa

Drought severity still remains a serious concern across Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) due to its destructive impact on multiple sectors of society. In this study, the interannual variability and trends in the changes of the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) based on the Penman–Monteith (scPDSIPM) and Thornthwaite (scPDSITH) methods for measuring potential evapotranspiration (PET), precipitation (P), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies were investigated through statistical analysis of modeled and remote sensing data. It was shown that scPDSIPM and scPDSITH differed in the representation of drought characteristics over SSA. The regional trend magnitudes of scPDSI in SSA were 0.69 (scPDSIPM) and 0.2 mm/decade (scPDSITH), with a difference in values attributed to the choice of PET measuring method used. The scPDSI and remotely sensed-based anomalies of P and NDVI showed wetting and drying trends over the period 1980–2012 with coefficients of trend magnitudes of 0.12 mm/decade (0.002 mm/decade). The trend analysis showed increased drought events in the semi-arid and arid regions of SSA over the same period. A correlation analysis revealed a strong relationship between the choice of PET measuring method and both P and NDVI anomalies for monsoon and pre-monsoon seasons. The correlation analysis of the choice of PET measuring method with SST anomalies indicated significant positive and negative relationships. This study has demonstrated the applicability of multiple data sources for drought assessment and provides useful information for regional drought predictability and mitigation strategies

Evapotranspiration and its Components in the Nile River Basin Based on Long-Term Satellite Assimilation Product

Actual evapotranspiration (ET) and its individual components’ contributions to the water–energy nexus provide insights into our hydrological cycle in a changing climate. Based on long-term satellite ET data assimilated by the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM), we analyzed changes in ET and its components over the Nile River Basin from 1980 to 2014. The results show a multi-year mean ET of 518 mm·year–1. The long-term ET trend showed a decline at a rate of 18.8 mm·year–10. ET and its components showed strong seasonality and the ET components’ contribution to total ET varied in space and time. ET and its components decreased in humid regions, which was related to precipitation deficits. ET increases in arid-semiarid regions were due to water availability from crop irrigation fields in the Nile Plain. Precipitation was the dominant limiting driver of ET in the region. Vegetation transpiration (an average of 78.1% of total ET) dominated the basin’s water fluxes, suggesting biological fluxes play a role in the regional water cycle’s response to climate change. This analysis furthers our understanding of the water dynamics in the region and may significantly improve our knowledge of future hydrological modelling

Improving the Gross Primary Production Estimate by Merging and Downscaling Based on Deep Learning

A reliable estimate of the gross primary productivity (GPP) is crucial for understanding the global carbon balance and accurately assessing the ability of terrestrial ecosystems to support the sustainable development of human society. However, there are inconsistencies in variations and trends in current GPP products. To improve the estimation accuracy of GPP, a deep learning method has been adopted to merge 23 CMIP6 data to generate a monthly GPP merged product with high precision and a spatial resolution of 0.25°, covering a time range of 1850–2100 under four climate scenarios. Multi-model ensemble mean and the merged GPP (CMIP6DL GPP) have been compared, taking GLASS GPP as the benchmark. Compared with the multi-model ensemble mean, the coefficient of determination between CMIP6DL GPP and GLASS GPP was increased from 0.66 to 0.86, with the RMSD being reduced from 1.77 gCm−2d−1 to 0.77 gCm−2d−1, which significantly reduced the random error. Merged GPP can better capture long-term trends, especially in regions with dense vegetation along the southeast coast. Under the climate change scenarios, the regional average annual GPP shows an upward trend over China, and the variation trend intensifies with the increase in radiation forcing levels. The results contribute to a scientific understanding of the potential impact of climate change on GPP in China

Assessing Past Climate Biases and the Added Value of CORDEX-CORE Precipitation Simulations over Africa

The present study investigates the skills of CORDEX-CORE precipitation outputs in simulating Africa’s key seasonal climate features, emphasizing the added value (AV) of the dynamical downscaling approach from which they were derived. The results indicate the models’ good skills in capturing African rainfall patterns and dynamics at satellite-based observation resolutions, with up to 65.17% significant positive AV spatial coverage for the CCLM5 model and up to 55.47% significant positive AV spatial coverage for the REMO model. Unavoidable biases are however present in rainfall-abundant areas and are reflected in the AV results, but vary based on the season, the sub-area, and the Global Climate Model–Regional Climate Models (GCM-RCM) combination considered. The RCMs’ ensemble mean generally performs better than individual GCM–RCM simulations. A further analysis of the GCM–RCM model chain indicates a strong influence of the dynamical downscaling approach on the driving GCMs. However, exceptions are found in some seasons for specific RCMs’ outputs, where GCMs are influential. The findings also revealed that observational uncertainties can influence AV and contribute to a 6 to 34% difference in significant positive AV spatial coverage results. An analysis of these results suggests that the AV by CORDEX-CORE simulations over Africa depend on how well the GCM physics are integrated to those of the RCMs and how these features are accommodated in the high-resolution setting of the downscaling experiments. The deficiencies of the CORDEX-CORE simulations could be related to how well key processes are represented within the RCM models. For Africa, these results show that CORDEX-CORE products could be adequate for a wide range of high-resolution precipitation data applications

Data-Driven Modeling and the Influence of Objective Function Selection on Model Performance in Limited Data Regions

The identification of unit hydrographs and component flows from rainfall, evapotranspiration and streamflow data (IHACRES) model has been proven to be an efficient yet basic model to simulate rainfall–runoff processes due to the difficulty in obtaining the comprehensive data required by physical models, especially in data-scarce, semi-arid regions. The success of a calibration process is tremendously dependent on the objective function chosen. However, objective functions have been applied largely in over daily and monthly scales and seldom over sub-daily scales. This study, therefore, implements the IHACRES model using ‘hydromad’ in R to simulate flood events with data limitations in Zhidan, a semi-arid catchment in China. We apply objective function constraints by time aggregating the commonly used Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency into daily and hourly scales to investigate the influence of objective function constraints on the model performance and the general capability of the IHACRES model to simulate flood events in the study watershed. The results of the study demonstrated the advantage of the finer time-scaled hourly objective function over its daily counterpart in simulating runoff for the selected flood events. The results also indicated that the IHACRES model performed extremely well in the Zhidan watershed, presenting the feasibility of the use of the IHACRES model to simulate flood events in data scarce, semi-arid regions

Resolution-Sensitive Added Value Analysis of CORDEX-CORE RegCM4-7 Past Seasonal Precipitation Simulations over Africa Using Satellite-Based Observational Products

This study adopts a two-way approach to CORDEX-CORE RegCM4-7 seasonal precipitation simulations’ Added Value (AV) analysis over Africa, which aims to quantify potential improvements introduced by the downscaling approach at high and low resolution, using satellite-based observational products. The results show that RegCM4-7 does add value to its driving Global Climate Models (GCMs) with a positive Added Value Coverage (AVC) ranging between 20 and 60% at high resolution, depending on the season and the boundary conditions. At low resolution, the results indicate an increase in the positive AVC by up to 20% compared to the high-resolution results, with an up to 8% decrease for instances where an increase is not observed. Typical climate zones such as West Africa, Central Africa, and Southern East Africa, where improvements by Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are expected due to strong dependence on mesoscale and fine-scale features, show positive AVC greater than 20%, regardless of the season and the driving GCM. These findings provide more evidence for confirming the hypothesis that the RCMs AV is influenced by their internal physics rather than being the product of a mere disaggregation of large-scale features provided by GCMs. Although the results show some dependencies to the driving GCMs relating to their equilibrium climate sensitivity nature, the findings at low resolutions similar to the native GCM resolutions make the influence of internal physics more important. The findings also feature the CORDEX-CORE RegCM4-7 precipitation simulations’ potential in bridging the quality and resolution gap between coarse GCMs and high-resolution remote sensing datasets. Even if further post-processing activities, such as bias correction, may still be needed to remove persistent biases at high resolution, using upscaled RCMs as an alternative to GCMs for large-scale precipitation studies over Africa can be insightful if the AV and other performance statistics are satisfactory for the intended application

Landslide detection from bitemporal satellite imagery using attention-based deep neural networks

Torrential rainfall predisposes hills to catastrophic landslides resulting in serious damage to life and property. Landslide inventory maps are therefore essential for rapid response and developing disaster mitigation strategies. Manual mapping techniques are laborious and time-consuming, and thus not ideal in rapid response situations. Automated landslide mapping from optical satellite imagery using deep neural networks (DNNs) is becoming popular. However, distinguishing landslides from other changed objects in optical imagery using backbone DNNs alone is difficult. Attention modules have been introduced recently into the architecture of DNNs to address this problem by improving the discriminative ability of DNNs and suppressing noisy backgrounds. This study compares two state-of-the-art attention-boosted deep Siamese neural networks in mapping rainfall-induced landslides in the mountainous Himalayan region of Nepal using Planetscope (PS) satellite imagery. Our findings confirm that attention networks improve the performance of DNNs as they can extract more discriminative features. The Siamese Nested U-Net (SNUNet) produced the best and most coherent landslide inventory map among the methods in the test area, achieving an F1-score of 0.73, which is comparable to other similar studies. Our findings demonstrate a prospect for application of the attention-based DNNs in rapid landslide mapping and disaster mitigation not only for rainfall-triggered landslides but also for earthquake-triggered landslides

Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Drought Variability in Myanmar Based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Its Impact on Crop Production

Drought research is an important aspect of drought disaster mitigation and adaptation. For this purpose, we used the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to investigate the spatial-temporal pattern of drought and its impact on crop production. Using monthly precipitation (Precip) and temperature (Temp) data from 1986–2015 for 39 weather stations, the drought index was obtained for the time scale of 3, 6, and 12 months. The Mann–Kendall test was used to determine trends and rates of change. Precip and Temp anomalies were investigated using the regression analysis and compared with the drought index. The link between drought with large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies using the Pearson correlation coefficient (R) was explored. Results showed a non-uniform spatial pattern of dryness and wetness which varied across Myanmar agro-ecological zones and under different time scales. Generally, results showed an increasing trend for the SPEI in the three-time scales, signifying a high tendency of decreased drought from 1986–2015. The fluctuations in dryness/wetness might linked to reduction crop production between 1986–1999 and 2005, 2008, 2010, 2013 cropping years. Results show relationship between main crops production and climate (teleconnection) factors. However, the low correlation values (i.e., <0.49) indicate the extent of the relationship within the natural variability. However, readers are urged to interpret this result cautiously as reductions in crop production may also be affected by other factors. We have demonstrated droughts evolution and trends using weather stations, thus providing useful information to aid policymakers in developing spatially relevant climate change adaptation and mitigation management plans for Myanmar

High Spatial Resolution Simulation of Sunshine Duration over the Complex Terrain of Ghana

In this paper, we propose a remote sensing model based on a 1 × 1 km spatial resolution to estimate the spatio-temporal distribution of sunshine percentage (SSP) and sunshine duration (SD), taking into account terrain features and atmospheric factors. To account for the influence of topography and atmospheric conditions in the model, a digital elevation model (DEM) and cloud products from the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) for 2010 were incorporated into the model and subsequently validated against in situ observation data. The annual and monthly average daily total SSP and SD have been estimated based on the proposed model. The error analysis results indicate that the proposed modelled SD is in good agreement with ground-based observations. The model performance is evaluated against two classical interpolation techniques (kriging and inverse distance weighting (IDW)) based on the mean absolute error (MAE), the mean relative error (MRE) and the root-mean-square error (RMSE). The results reveal that the SD obtained from the proposed model performs better than those obtained from the two classical interpolators. This results indicate that the proposed model can reliably reflect the contribution of terrain and cloud cover in SD estimation in Ghana, and the model performance is expected to perform well in similar environmental conditions

Temporal and Spatial Variations of Potential and Actual Evapotranspiration and the Driving Mechanism over Equatorial Africa Using Satellite and Reanalysis-Based Observation

This study investigated the actual evapotranspiration (AET) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) seasonality, trends, abrupt changes, and driving mechanisms with global sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation patterns over Equatorial Africa (EQA) during 1980–2020. The spatiotemporal characteristics of mean ET were computed based on a 40-year average at annual and seasonal scales. The Mann-Kendall statistical test, the Sen slope test, and the Bayesian test were used to analyze trends and detect abrupt changes. The results showed that the mean annual PET (AET) for 1980–2020 was 110 (70) mm. Seasonal mean PET (AET) values were 112 (72) in summer, 110 (85) in autumn, 109 (84) in winter, and 110 (58) in spring. The MK test showed an increasing (decreasing) rate, and the Sen slope identified upward (downward) at a rate of 0.35 (0.05) mm yr−10. The PET and AET abrupt change points were observed to happen in 1995 and 2000. Both dry and wet regions showed observed weak (strong) correlation coefficient values of 0.3 (0.8) between PET/AET and climate factors, but significant spatiotemporal differences existed. Generally, air temperature, soil moisture, and relative humidity best explain ET dynamics rather than precipitation and wind speed. The regional atmospheric circulation patterns are directly linked to ET but vary significantly in space and time. From a policy perspective, these findings may have implications for future water resource management