The Economic Cybernetics Analysis and the Effects of the Occurrence of COVID-19 in Romania

From the perspectives of early warning and identification of risk, risk quantification and analysis, also as risk management, we propose recommendation, which includes analysis of citizen behavior in panic, cooperation of the institutions in Romania. The whole analysis will be performed from a perspective of the field of economic cybernetics. The 2019-nCoV coronavirus epidemic started in China's Wuhan city, which has spread throughout the country and subsequently, in a very short period of time, in several states, being viewed as a global contagion effect that causes great concern. As the virus gets closer to Romania, it becomes worrying and citizens are already panicking. Therefore, in this article we will analyze, according to public data, what is the current situation and how well Romania is prepared to manage the risks arising from the confirmation of COVID-19 in the country and how the behavior of citizens in a state of panic is influenced. In addition, we analysed the medical system from Romania from the point of view of the analysis of the management of the viable system, in the situation of pandemic crisis the medical system being one of the sensitive points of any system

Research on the Agro-Food Trade Balance of Romania

One of the founding principles of the European Union was free trade between all member states. In Romania, an EU member since 2007, the trade deficit for agro-food products has grown rapidly in recent years, reaching €8.3 billion in 2020, €1.08 billion higher than in the previous year. The aim of the paper is to highlight the evolution of trade and trade balance with the main categories of agro-food products in Romania. In order to achieve this aim, indicators contributing to the trade balance were analysed. The analysed indicators are import, export and trade balance for cereals, vegetables, and meat, at the Romanian level, in the period 2010-2020. In addition, the SPSS software was used to estimate the trade balance for the next decade. Cereals show a positive medium-term outlook driven by strong demand, thus in 2020 Romania's trade balance with cereals recorded a surplus of 7.8 million tons, equivalent to 1.4 billion euros, while the trade balance with vegetables and meat recorded a trade deficit of 625 thousand tons, and 381 thousand tons respectively

Financial contagion and identifying speculative frenzies: Unraveling price bubbles in cryptocurrency markets

This research investigates the occurrence of financial bubbles in the cryptocurrency market and highlights the factors that may influence the formation of these bubbles. Three cryptocurrencies were analyzed: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Cardano, and our findings showed that these cryptocurrencies exhibited potential bubbles during the three-year period under study, from 2020 to 2023. To detect financial bubbles, the Exponential Curve Fitting Model (EXCF) model was used. Events such as the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict were examined from the perspective of their potential impact on the cryptocurrency market and investor behavior. The study also illustrated how investors’ behavior, whether rational or influenced by external factors, as well as internal factors such as panic levels and knowledge in the financial-economic domain, were analyzed

The role of psychological resilience and aggression in injury prevention among martial arts athletes

IntroductionFor martial artists, the ability to manage reactions in the face of adversity and bounce back after a stressful event can have major impact on performance. The scope of the research is to investigate martial artists’ level of resilience and aggression (Go-ahead, Foul play, and Assertiveness factors), what is specific to athletes and who have suffered from moderate and/or severe injuries (in terms of resilience and three factors of aggression examined), and test the possibility that a psychological variable under investigation can predict athletes’ injury severity.Materials and methodsA total sample of 154 athletes from striking combat sports—SC (karate, taekwondo, kickboxing, and boxing), grappling combat sports—GC (judo and BJJ), and mixed martial artists (MMA) participated in the research. For assessing resilience, the Romanian adaptation of the Brief Resilience Scale (BRS) was used, and for aggression, the Romanian adaptation of Makarowski’s Sports Aggression Questionnaire was used. An injury report form was also created and applied to athletes.ResultsThe post-hoc tests (after running a single-factor multivariate analysis of variance) revealed significant differences for resilience and Foul (violent) play between the sports disciplines analyzed. A significant positive correlation was found between athletes’ injury severity and assertiveness in SC and between injury severity and resilience in GC. Through the t-test for independent samples, it was highlighted that the average value for Foul (violent) play is significantly higher in athletes who have suffered mild, moderate, and/or severe injuries compared with martial arts athletes who have suffered from only mild/minor injuries. A binomial logistic regression was also performed to verify to what extent Foul play predicts athletes’ injury severity.ConclusionA low level of Foul (violent) play is linked with a decreased likelihood of moderate and/or severe injuries in martial arts athletes. The study findings suggest that resilience, foul play, and assertiveness have an important role in injury prevention among martial artists

The Dynamics of Commodity Research: A Multi-Dimensional Bibliometric Analysis

This study presents a comprehensive bibliometric analysis conducted in R Studio of the scientific landscape regarding commodity markets, trading strategies, sustainable production, integration of technologies such as machine learning, and their economic impacts, covering publications from 1974 to 2023. Employing a sophisticated query in Scopus, we meticulously compiled and analyzed data, revealing an annual growth rate of 10.46% in related scientific publications, with an average citation rate of 6.60 per document. The results indicate sustained interest in commodity research over time, with a significant increase observed in scientific production, particularly since the early 2008s. International collaboration is prominent, reflecting the global nature of research in commodity markets. Key themes such as “futures markets”, “commodity prices”, and “energy commodities” emerge from the analysis of keywords and bigrams, highlighting areas of interest within the field. Additionally, thematic mapping highlights emerging and niche themes in commodity research, providing insight into evolving trends and areas of specialization. Factorial analysis of keywords reveals the underlying structures of association between key concepts, shedding light on the intricate dynamics of research in the field of commodities. This research delineates the complex interplay between commodity markets and global economic dynamics, offering invaluable insights for academics, policymakers, and market participants aiming to navigate the intricate world of commodities in the digital age

Cybernetics Approach Using Agent-Based Modeling in the Process of Evacuating Educational Institutions in Case of Disasters

In the context of an emergency, evacuating people from a location in the shortest possible time is essential, as is the high degree of safety that people should expect when evacuating. Lately, in Romania there have been more and more fire events generated by different causes. This article will use agent-based modeling to simulate an emergency evacuation model in NetLogo. The model has been used to perform and analyze various scenarios. With the help of NetLogo, we managed to perform 400 simulations with the evacuation of 180 people (students, teachers, and non-teaching staff) based on which we developed several recommendations to streamline the evacuation process in order to reduce the possibility of death. The present research will help to identify the evacuation times from a school, but it will also highlight certain aspects that may occur during the evacuation. The model that was used in this research took into account the individual particularities of the people taking part in the evacuation, emphasizing the effects that form in a crowd of people when evacuating; effects such as the funnel effect, which is caused by the formation of bottlenecks around narrow areas. All these things are part of the analysis of the measurement of entropy of the exhaust system, a problem that has captured all of the specialists’ attention. Finally, solutions have been proposed to improve evacuation time in case of disasters

Mathematical Patterns in Fuzzy Logic and Artificial Intelligence for Financial Analysis: A Bibliometric Study

In this study, we explored the dynamic field of fuzzy logic and artificial intelligence (AI) in financial analysis from 1990 to 2023. Utilizing the bibliometrix package in RStudio and data from the Web of Science, we focused on identifying mathematical models and the evolving role of fuzzy information granulation in this domain. The research addresses the urgent need to understand the development and impact of fuzzy logic and AI within the broader scope of evolving technological and analytical methodologies, particularly concentrating on their application in financial and banking contexts. The bibliometric analysis involved an extensive review of the literature published during this period. We examined key metrics such as the annual growth rate, international collaboration, and average citations per document, which highlighted the field’s expansion and collaborative nature. The results revealed a significant annual growth rate of 19.54%, international collaboration of 21.16%, and an average citation per document of 25.52. Major journals such as IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems, Fuzzy Sets and Systems, the Journal of Intelligent & Fuzzy Systems, and Information Sciences emerged as significant contributors, aligning with Bradford’s Law’s Zone 1. Notably, post-2020, IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems showed a substantial increase in publications. A significant finding was the high citation rate of seminal research on fuzzy information granulation, emphasizing its mathematical importance and practical relevance in financial analysis. Keywords like “design”, “model”, “algorithm”, “optimization”, “stabilization”, and terms such as “fuzzy logic controller”, “adaptive fuzzy controller”, and “fuzzy logic approach” were prevalent. The Countries’ Collaboration World Map indicated a strong pattern of global interconnections, suggesting a robust framework of international collaboration. Our study highlights the escalating influence of fuzzy logic and AI in financial analysis, marked by a growth in research outputs and global collaborations. It underscores the crucial role of fuzzy information granulation as a mathematical model and sets the stage for further investigation into how fuzzy logic and AI-driven models are transforming financial and banking analysis practices worldwide

Quantitative Modeling of Financial Contagion: Unraveling Market Dynamics and Bubble Detection Mechanisms

This study explored the complex interplay and potential risk of financial contagion across major financial indices, focusing on the Bucharest Exchange Trading Investment Funds Index (BET-FI), along with global indices like the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite (IXIC), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). Our analysis covered an extensive period from 2012 to 2023, with a particular emphasis on Romania’s financial market. We employed Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeling to examine the interrelations among these indices, treating the BET-FI index as our primary variable. Our research also integrated Exponential Curve Fitting (EXCF) and Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey–Fuller (GSADF) models to identify and scrutinize potential price bubbles in these indices. We analyzed moments of high volatility and deviations from typical market trends, influenced by diverse factors like government policies, presidential elections, tech sector performance, the COVID-19 pandemic, and geopolitical tensions, specifically the Russia–Ukraine conflict. The ARDL model revealed a stable long-term relationship among the variables, indicating their interconnectedness. Our study also highlights the significance of short-term market shifts leading to long-term equilibrium, as shown in the Error Correction Model (ECM). This suggests the existence of contagion effects, where small, short-term incidents can trigger long-term, domino-like impacts on the financial markets. Furthermore, our variance decomposition examined the evolving contributions of different factors over time, shedding light on their changing interactions and impact. The Cholesky factors demonstrated the interdependence between indices, essential for understanding financial contagion effects. Our research thus uncovered the nuanced dynamics of financial contagion, offering insights into market variations, the effectiveness of our models, and strategies for detecting financial bubbles. This study contributes valuable knowledge to the academic field and offers practical insights for investors in turbulent financial environments

Toward Sustainable Development: Assessing the Effects of Financial Contagion on Human Well-Being in Romania

In a globally interconnected economy marked by volatility, this study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to examine financial contagion’s impact on Romania’s financial stability. It investigates both conventional and unconventional channels through which financial contagion is transmitted, emphasizing its sensitivity to factors such as geopolitical events and investor sentiment. The study also assesses the influence of unemployment, market capitalization, and financial freedom on Romania’s Human Development Index (HDI) from 2000 to 2022. Using HDI, which encompasses health and education alongside economic aspects, the research provides a holistic view of well-being and quality of life. In addition to the ARDL model’s insights, this study expands its scope by conducting a multilinear regression analysis, with GDP as the dependent variable. We have incorporated independent variables such as HDI, transaction volume, and the BET-FI index to comprehensively assess their relationships and potential impact on Romania’s economic growth. This analytical approach unveils intricate connections between key economic and financial indicators, paving the way for a deeper understanding of how these variables interact. Furthermore, to shed light on the financial dynamics within Romania, a supplementary analysis in the Altreva Adaptive Modeler was undertaken, focusing on the BET-FI index. This software-based exploration provides a nuanced perspective on the index’s behavior and its interactions with other economic and social indicators. This additional dimension contributes to our holistic understanding of the effects of financial contagion and the implications for sustainable human development in Romania. By combining traditional econometric methodologies with cutting-edge modeling techniques, this study strives to offer a robust framework for comprehending the multifaceted nature of financial contagion and its implications for both the national economy and well-being. These findings have the potential to guide policymakers and financial institutions in implementing more effective risk management strategies, driving economic development, and ultimately enhancing the overall quality of life in Romania

Quantifying Impact, Uncovering Trends: A Comprehensive Bibliometric Analysis of Shadow Banking and Financial Contagion Dynamics

This study describes a comprehensive bibliometric analysis of shadow banking and financial contagion dynamics from 1996 to 2022. Through a holistic approach, our study focuses on quantifying the impact and uncovering significant trends in scientific research related to these interconnected fields. Using advanced bibliometric methods, we explored the global network of publications, identifying key works, influential authors, and the evolution of research over time. The results of the bibliometric analysis have highlighted an annual growth rate of 22.05% in publications related to the topics of shadow banking and financial contagion, illustrating researchers’ interest and the dynamic nature of publications over time. Additionally, significant increases in scientific production have been recorded in recent years, reaching a total of 178 articles published in 2022. The most predominant keywords used in research include “systemic risks”, “risk assessment”, and “measuring systemic risk”. The thematic evolution has revealed that over time, the focus on fundamental concepts used in analyzing these two topics has shifted, considering technological advancements and disruptive events that have impacted the economic and financial system. Our findings provide a detailed insight into the progress, gaps, and future directions in understanding the complex interplay of shadow banking and financial contagion. Our study represents a valuable asset for researchers, practitioners, and policymakers with a keen interest in understanding the dynamics of these critical components within the global financial system