Compensation effect between deaths from Covid-19 and crashes: The Italian case

Emergencies such as the Covid-19 pandemic pose several decision-making issues, while clear evidence of successful strategies are still unavailable, different policies may be identified. However, in such emergencies, the preservation of public health, by firstly reducing human loss of life may be prioritized and then restrictive measures are implemented. The trade-off between damage due to the threat and the decrease in damage due to the lockdown is largely unexplored. Here we show that there is a degree of compensation between damage from epidemic deaths and from traffic deaths, especially in the case of immediate restrictive measures imposed by governments. Based on the Italian case, we found that damage from loss of human Capital and health care costs could have been fully compensated if the lockdown had been imposed ten days earlier. Considering only one Italian region (Puglia), where the epidemic was delayed and then restrictions were timely, damage due to loss of human Capital was largely compensated in the real scenario. However, damage due to loss of welfare could not have been fully compensated for, since Covid-19 deaths largely outnumber traffic deaths in the simulated epidemic period and loss of welfare damage is scarcely dependent on the age-at-death. From a broader perspective, societies seem to react to external threats as a whole organism, thus tending to restore the original equilibrium. Governmental decisions could accelerate this process. However, in the case of similar threats, some wounds cannot be compensated for, such as the incalculable damage due to loss of welfare

The impact of heavy vehicle traffic trends on the overdesign of flexible asphalt pavements

Given their environmental impact, the careful design of asphalt pavements is crucial. Previous research has highlighted the influence of several parameters on the outputs of different pavement design methods. In this study, the focus is on heavy vehicle trends, considering both the percentage of heavy vehicles in the average traffic flow and its evolution over time, which is usually included as a growth factor in the design inputs. Since these factors are very often assumed to be based on old estimates, the first aim of this study was to update them by exploring a recent series of continuous data collected on the Italian motorway network and showing how to infer estimates from historical traffic data. Subsequently, the variability of these input factors is introduced in standard pavement design methods to assess their influence on the design process and to quantify the risk of overdesign. While the analysis of historical heavy vehicle traffic data may reveal an overall zero-growth traffic tendency, different scenarios should be considered and assessed in cost-benefit analyses given the not negligible influence of growth factors on pavement thicknesses. This influence is shown here in different simulated design conditions, with different initial traffic volumes, share of heavy vehicles, and resilient moduli

A new data analysis framework for the search of continuous gravitational wave signals

Continuous gravitational wave signals, like those expected by asymmetric spinning neutron stars, are among the most promising targets for LIGO and Virgo detectors. The development of fast and robust data analysis methods is crucial to increase the chances of a detection. We have developed a new and flexible general data analysis framework for the search of this kind of signals, which allows to reduce the computational cost of the analysis by about two orders of magnitude with respect to current procedures. This can correspond, at fixed computing cost, to a sensitivity gain of up to 10%-20%, depending on the search parameter space. Some possible applications are discussed, with a particular focus on a directed search for sources in the Galactic center. Validation through the injection of artificial signals in the data of Advanced LIGO first observational science run is also shown.Comment: 21 pages, 8 figure

An improved algorithm for narrow-band searches of continuous gravitational waves

Continuous gravitational waves signals, emitted by asymmetric spinning neutron stars, are among the main targets of current detectors like Advanced LIGO and Virgo. In the case of sources, like pulsars, which rotational parameters are measured through electromagnetic observations, typical searches assume that the gravitational wave frequency is at a given known fixed ratio with respect to the star rotational frequency. For instance, for a neutron star rotating around one of its principal axis of inertia the gravitational signal frequency would be exactly two times the rotational frequency of the star. It is possible, however, that this assumption is wrong. This is why search algorithms able to take into account a possible small mismatch between the gravitational waves frequency and the frequency inferred from electromagnetic observations have been developed. In this paper we present an improved pipeline to perform such narrow-band searches for continuous gravitational waves from neutron stars, about three orders of magnitude faster than previous implementations. The algorithm that we have developed is based on the {\it 5-vectors} framework and is able to perform a fully coherent search over a frequency band of width $\mathcal{O}$(Hertz) and for hundreds of spin-down values running a few hours on a standard workstation. This new algorithm opens the possibility of long coherence time searches for objects which rotational parameters are highly uncertain.Comment: 19 pages, 8 figures, 6 tables, submitted to CQ

Modelling the impact of wildfire smoke on driving speed

Traffic models can be used to study evacuation scenarios during wildland-urban interface fires and identify the ability of a community to reach a safe place. In those scenarios, wildfire smoke can reduce visibility conditions on the road. This can have serious implications on the evacuation effectiveness since drivers would reduce their speed in relation to the optical density on the road. To date, there is no traffic model which explicitly represents the impact of reduced visibility conditions on traffic evacuation flow. This paper makes use of an experimental dataset collected in a virtual reality environment to calibrate two widely used macroscopic traffic models (the Lighthill-Whitham-Richards and the Van Aerde models) in order to account for the impact of reduced visibility conditions on driving speed. An application of the calibrated traffic model considering the impact of smoke has been performed using the WUI-NITY platform, an open multi-physics platform which includes wildfire spread, pedestrian response and traffic modelling. A dedicated verification test has been developed and performed considering different values of optical densities of smoke and traffic densities to ensure the model has been implemented correctly in WUI-NITY. A case study that demonstrates the applicability of the model to real life scenarios was also implemented, based on data from an evacuation drill. This paper shows that the presence of smoke on the road can significantly decrease movement speed and increase evacuation times thus highlighting the need for inclusion of this factor in traffic evacuation models applied for wildland-urban interface fire scenarios

Guidance on Design and Construction of the Built Environment Against Wildland Urban Interface Fire Hazard: A Review

Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) fires, a worldwide problem, are gaining more importance over time due to climate change and increased urbanization in WUI areas. Some jurisdictions have provided standards, codes and guidelines, which may greatly help planning, prevention and protection against wildfires. This work presents a wide systematic review of standards, codes and guidelines for the design and construction of the built environment against WUI fire hazard from North American, European, Oceanic countries, alongside with trans-national codes. The main information reviewed includes: the definition of WUI hazards, risk areas and related severity classes, the influence of land and environmental factors, the requirements for building materials, constructions, utilities, fire protection measures and road access. Some common threads among the documents reviewed have been highlighted. They include similar attempts at: (a) defining WUI risk areas and severity classes, (b) considering land factors including the defensible space (also known as ignition zones), (c) prescribing requirements for buildings and access. The main gaps highlighted in the existing standards/guidelines include lacks of detailed and widespread requirements for resources, fire protection measures, and lacks of taking into account environmental factors in detail. The main design and construction principles contained in the reviewed documents are largely based on previous research and/or good practices. Hence, the main contributions of this paper consist in: (a) systematically disseminate these guidance concepts, (b) setting a potential basis for the development of standards/guidelines in other jurisdictions lacking dedicated WUI fire design guidance, (c) highlighting gaps in existing standards/guidelines to be addressed by current and future research

Low-cost smartphone-based speed surveying methods in proximity to traffic calming devices

The study is aimed at investigating the effectiveness of two smartphone applications for surveying speeds of moving objects. These applications are used for urban speed measurements. Once the most reliable application was selected among the available ones, its outputs were calibrated by using the speed from the GPS system mounted on the test vehicle as a benchmark. Thereafter, an experimental test was conducted for monitoring the influence of a raised crossing on the vehicle speeds in the urban environment, by using the selected smartphone application

Effects of Berlin speed cushions in urban restricted speed zones: a case study in Bari, Italy

The widespread European policy towards urban sustainable mobility requires some engineering-related interventions on the existing urban road network, such as traffic calming measures. There is a substantial amount of research assessing the effects of different traffic calming measures, even if there is no unanimous evidence for some of them, such as speed cushions (in particular Berlin speed cushions). Some research on speed cushions has been conducted, even if different results were achieved, also varying with the country and context of installation. Moreover, some of these studies are old and they need to be updated, given the continuous transformation of urban environments. In agreement with the City of Bari, thanks to ASSET-Puglia Region funds, the Italian Ministry of Infrastructures and Transport has granted permission to install speed cushions on three urban streets located in restricted speed zones (≤30 km/h) in the City of Bari, to test their effects on vehicular traffic. In this context, this article is aimed at assessing the preliminary results obtained, considering the effects on vehicular speeds. The study design is a typical before-and-after study, in which speeds are measured using a laser speed gun on the three selected road segments before and after the implementation of speed cushions (for each segment, the cushion has a different width). Visual observations were also useful to detect the effects of speed cushions on trajectories and speeds of two-wheeled vehicles. The preliminary analysis of speed profiles revealed a consistent decrease in speed for all the three test sites (in particular the operating speed V85, which is reduced by up to approximately 30%). Moreover, it seems that the decrease in speed is more evident as the cushion width decreases

Optimal planning of safety improvements on road sites belonging to different categories within large networks: An integrated multi-layer framework

Planning road safety interventions on large road networks implies several layers of complexity in the decision-making process. In fact, the following simultaneous problems should be addressed: estimating safety performances on the different road elements of the network, identifying sites showing high potential for improvement with respect to reference values, defining the possible types of safety measures to be implemented and their anticipated effect on traffic safety, limiting the number of interventions given fixed budget constraints. This study proposes an integrated multi-layer framework which takes into account the above-defined problems into a single optimization procedure which provides the number and type of safety interventions to be implemented over a wide road network composed of different categories of road elements. The proposed framework is based on the following peculiar aspects: the potential for safety improvement is quantitatively assessed based on the estimation of safety performances for each road category, a bi-level thresholding process integrated in the optimization process is used to highlight sites for interventions, the anticipated outcome of safety measures is quantitatively assessed as well through available crash reduction factors. The proposed methodology is applied to a case study which analyzes a sample of real roads belonging to a province-wide road network composed of various road elements (i.e., different categories of segments and intersections), under different budget constraints. Results demonstrate the applicability and flexibility of the proposed approach, which could be used for planning purposes, independently of the particular geographic location. Clearly, the approach is valid at the planning stage, given that several details of the different layers of analysis are necessarily simplified, while they should be studied in detail at the single intervention project stage