Rates and Causes of Death in Chiradzulu District, Malawi, 2008: A Key Informant Study

In September 2008, we measured all-cause mortality in Chiradzulu District, Malawi (population 291 000) over a 60-day retrospective period, using capture-recapture analysis of three lists of deaths provided by (i) key community informants, (ii) graveyard officials and (iii) health system sources. Estimated crude and under-5-year mortality rates were 18.6 (95% CI 13.9-24.5) and 30.6 (95% CI 17.5-59.9) deaths per 1000 person-years. We also classified causes of death through verbal autopsy interviews on 50 deaths over the previous 40 days. Half of deaths were attributable to infection, and half of deaths among children aged under 5 were attributable to neonatal causes. HIV/AIDS was the leading cause of death (16.6%), with a cause-attributable mortality rate of 1.8 (0.4-3.6) deaths per 1000 person-years

Estimating high risk cannabis and opiate use in Ankara, Istanbul and Izmir

Aims. Information on high risk drug use in Turkey particularly at the regional level is lacking. The present analysis aims at estimating high risk cannabis (HRCU) and high risk opiate use (HROU) in the cities of Ankara, Istanbul and Izmir. Design and Methods. Capture-recapture (CRC) and multiplier methods (MM) were applied based on treatment and police data stratified by age and gender in the years 2009 and 2010. Case definitions refer to ICD-10 cannabis (F.12) and opiate (F.11) disorder diagnoses from out- and inpatient treatment records and illegal possession of these drugs as recorded by the police. Results. HRCU was estimated at 28,500 (8.5 per 1,000; 95%-CI: 7.3-10.3) and 33,400 (11.9 per 1,000; 95%-CI: 10.7-13.5) in Ankara and Izmir, respectively. Using multipliers based on CRC estimates for Izmir, HRCU in Istanbul was estimated up to 166,000 (18.0 per 1,000; range: 2.8-18.0). CRC estimates of HROU resulted in 4,800 (1.4 per 1,000; 95% CI: 0.9-1.9) in Ankara and multipliers based on these gave estimates up to 20,000 (2.2 per 1,000; range: 0.9-1-7) in Istanbul. HROU in Izmir was not estimated due to the low absolute numbers of opiate users. Discussion and Conclusions. While HRCU prevalence in both Ankara and Izmir was considerably lower in comparison to an estimate for Berlin, the rate for Istanbul was only slightly lower. Compared to the majority of European cities HROU in these three Turkish cities may be considered rather low

A new method to estimate mortality in crisis-affected and resource-poor settings: validation study

Background Data on mortality rates are crucial to guide health interventions in crisis-affected and resource-poor settings. The methods currently available to collect mortality data in such settings feature important methodological limitations. We developed and validated a new method to provide near real-time mortality estimates in such settings

Estimating Influenza Hospitalizations among Children

Two surveillance systems gave a better estimate of influenza hospitalizations in children <5 years of age than either system alone

Capture-recapture analysis of all-cause mortality data in Bohol, Philippines

Background: Despite the importance of mortality data for effective planning and monitoring of health services, official reporting systems rarely capture every death. The completeness of death reporting and the subsequent effect on mortality estimates were examined in six municipalities of Bohol province in the Philippines using a system review and capture-recapture analysis.Methods: Reports of deaths were collected from records at local civil registration offices, health centers and hospitals, and parish churches. Records were reconciled using a specific set of matching criteria, and both a two-source and a three-source capture-recapture analysis was conducted. For the two-source analysis, civil registry and health data were combined due to dependence between these sources and analyzed against the church data.Results: Significant dependence between civil registration and health reporting systems was identified. There were 8,075 unique deaths recorded in the study area between 2002 and 2007. We found 5% to 10% of all deaths were not reported to any source, while government records captured only 77% of all deaths. Life expectancy at birth (averaged for 2002-2007) was estimated at 65.7 years and 73.0 years for males and females, respectively. This was one to two years lower than life expectancy estimated from reconciled reported deaths from all sources, and four to five years lower than life expectancy estimated from civil registration data alone. Reporting patterns varied by age and municipality, with childhood deaths more underreported than adult deaths. Infant mortality was underreported in civil registration data by 62%.Conclusions: Deaths are underreported in Bohol, with inconsistent reporting procedures contributing to this situation. Uncorrected mortality measures would subsequently be misleading if used for health planning and evaluation purposes. These findings highlight the importance of ensuring that official mortality estimates from the Philippines are derived from data that have been assessed for underreporting and corrected as necessary

Methods for dealing with discrepant records in linked population health datasets: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND: Linked population health data are increasingly used in epidemiological studies. If data items are reported on more than one dataset, data linkage can reduce the under-ascertainment associated with many population health datasets. However, this raises the possibility of discrepant case reports from different datasets. METHODS: We examined the effect of four methods of classifying discrepant reports from different population health datasets on the estimated prevalence of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy and on the adjusted odds ratios (aOR) for known risk factors. Data were obtained from linked, validated, birth and hospital data for women who gave birth in a New South Wales hospital (Australia) 2000–2002. RESULTS: Among 250173 women with linked data, 238412 (95.3%) women had perfect agreement on the occurrence of hypertension, 1577 (0.6%) had imperfect agreement; 9369 (3.7%) had hypertension reported in only one dataset (under-reporting) and 815 (0.3%) had conflicting types of hypertension. Using only perfect agreement between birth and discharge data resulted in the lowest prevalence rates (0.3% chronic, 5.1% pregnancy hypertension), while including all reports resulted in the highest prevalence rates (1.1 % chronic, 8.7% pregnancy hypertension). The higher prevalence rates were generally consistent with international reports. In contrast, perfect agreement gave the highest aOR (95% confidence interval) for known risk factors: risk of chronic hypertension for maternal age ≥40 years was 4.0 (2.9, 5.3) and the risk of pregnancy hypertension for multiple birth was 2.8 (2.5, 3.2). CONCLUSION: The method chosen for classifying discrepant case reports should vary depending on the study question; all reports should be used as part of calculating the range of prevalence estimates, but perfect matches may be best suited to risk factor analyses. These findings are likely to be applicable to the linkage of any specialised health services datasets to population data that include information on diagnoses or procedures