Ensemble prediction for nowcasting with a convection-permitting model - II: forecast error statistics

A 24-member ensemble of 1-h high-resolution forecasts over the Southern United Kingdom is used to study short-range forecast error statistics. The initial conditions are found from perturbations from an ensemble transform Kalman filter. Forecasts from this system are assumed to lie within the bounds of forecast error of an operational forecast system. Although noisy, this system is capable of producing physically reasonable statistics which are analysed and compared to statistics implied from a variational assimilation system. The variances for temperature errors for instance show structures that reflect convective activity. Some variables, notably potential temperature and specific humidity perturbations, have autocorrelation functions that deviate from 3-D isotropy at the convective-scale (horizontal scales less than 10 km). Other variables, notably the velocity potential for horizontal divergence perturbations, maintain 3-D isotropy at all scales. Geostrophic and hydrostatic balances are studied by examining correlations between terms in the divergence and vertical momentum equations respectively. Both balances are found to decay as the horizontal scale decreases. It is estimated that geostrophic balance becomes less important at scales smaller than 75 km, and hydrostatic balance becomes less important at scales smaller than 35 km, although more work is required to validate these findings. The implications of these results for high-resolution data assimilation are discussed

Streamer Wave Events Observed in Solar Cycle 23

In this paper we conduct a data survey searching for well-defined streamer wave events observed by the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) on-board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) throughout Solar Cycle 23. As a result, 8 candidate events are found and presented here. We compare different events and find that in most of them the driving CMEs ejecta are characterized by a high speed and a wide angular span, and the CME-streamer interactions occur generally along the flank of the streamer structure at an altitude no higher than the bottom of the field of view of LASCO C2. In addition, all front-side CMEs have accompanying flares. These common observational features shed light on the excitation conditions of streamer wave events. We also conduct a further analysis on one specific streamer wave event on 5 June 2003. The heliocentric distances of 4 wave troughs/crests at various exposure times are determined; they are then used to deduce the wave properties like period, wavelength, and phase speeds. It is found that both the period and wavelength increase gradually with the wave propagation along the streamer plasma sheet, and the phase speed of the preceding wave is generally faster than that of the trailing ones. The associated coronal seismological study yields the radial profiles of the Alfv\'en speed and magnetic field strength in the region surrounding the streamer plasma sheet. Both quantities show a general declining trend with time. This is interpreted as an observational manifestation of the recovering process of the CME-disturbed corona. It is also found that the Alfv\'enic critical point is at about 10 R$_\odot$ where the flow speed, which equals the Alfv\'en speed, is $\sim$ 200 km s$^{-1}$

The Sparsest Clusters With O Stars

There is much debate on how high-mass star formation varies with environment, and whether the sparsest star-forming environments are capable of forming massive stars. To address this issue, we have observed eight apparently isolated OB stars in the SMC using HST's Advanced Camera for Surveys. Five of these objects appear as isolated stars, two of which are confirmed to be runaways. The remaining three objects are found to exist in sparse clusters, with <10 companion stars revealed, having masses of 1-4 solar mass. Stochastic effects dominate in these sparse clusters, so we perform Monte Carlo simulations to explore how our observations fit within the framework of empirical, galactic cluster properties. We generate clusters using a simplistic -2 power-law distribution for either the number of stars per cluster (N_*) or cluster mass (M_cl). These clusters are then populated with stars randomly chosen from a Kroupa IMF. We find that simulations with cluster lower-mass limits of M_cl,lo >20 solar mass and N_*,lo >40 match best with observations of SMC and Galactic OB star populations. We examine the mass ratio of the second-most massive and most massive stars (m_max,2/m_max), finding that our observations all exist below the 20th percentile of our simulated clusters. However, all of our observed clusters lie within the parameter space spanned by the simulated clusters, although some are in the lowest 5th percentile frequency. These results suggest that clusters are built stochastically by randomly sampling stars from a universal IMF with a fixed stellar upper-mass limit. In particular, we see no evidence to suggest a m_max - M_cl relation. Our results may be more consistent with core accretion models of star formation than with competitive accretion models, and they are inconsistent with the proposed steepening of the integrated galaxy IMF (IGIMF).Comment: 19 pages, 12 figures, accepted for publication in Ap

Measles among migrants in the European Union and the European Economic Area

Aims: Progress towards meeting the goal of measles elimination in the EU and the European Economic Area (EEA) by 2015 is being obstructed, as some children are either not immunized on time or never immunized. One group thought to be at increased risk of measles is migrants; however, the extent to which this is the case is poorly understood, due to a lack of data. This paper addresses this evidence gap by providing an overview of the burden of measles in migrant populations in the EU/EEA. Methods: Data were collected through a comprehensive literature review, a country survey of EU/EEA member states and information from measles experts gathered at an infectious disease workshop. Results: Our results showed incomplete data on measles in migrant populations, as national surveillance systems do not systematically record migration-specific information; however, evidence from the literature review and country survey suggested that some measles outbreaks in the EU/EEA were due to sub-optimal vaccination coverage in migrant populations. Conclusions: We conclude that it is essential that routine surveillance of measles cases and measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccination coverage become strengthened, to capture migrant-specific data. These data can help to inform the provision of preventive services, which may need to reach out to vulnerable migrant populations that currently face barriers in accessing routine immunization and health services

The urgent need for valid data on access to healthcare in Europe

The probability of experiencing an unmet need for medical or dental care can be expressed either (a) as a proportion of the whole population studied or (b) as a proportion of those who had a need. Only (b) yields a valid measure of access to care. Using (a) combines access to care with state of health. Unfortunately, the main data source used by researchers (the European Union Survey of Income and Living Conditions, EU-SILC) uses method (a), rendering the literature to date subject to unknown errors. The authors argue that there is an urgent need for Eurostat to publish data using method (b)

Ethnographic perspectives on global mental health

The field of Global Mental Health (GMH) aims to influence mental health policy and practice worldwide, with a focus on human rights and access to care. There have been important achievements, but GMH has also been the focus of scholarly controversies arising from political, cultural and pragmatic critiques. These debates have become increasingly polarized, giving rise to a need for more dialogue and experience-near research to inform theorizing. Ethnography has much to offer in this respect. This paper frames and introduces five articles in the issue of Transcultural Psychiatry that illustrate the role of ethnographic methods in understanding the effects and implications of the field of global mental health on mental health policy and practice. The papers include ethnographies from South Africa, India and Tonga, that show the potential for ethnographic evidence to inform GMH projects. These studies provide nuanced conceptualizations of GMH’s varied manifestations across different settings, the diverse ways that GMH’s achievements can be evaluated, and the connections that can be drawn between locally observed experiences and wider historical, political and social phenomena. Ethnography can provide a basis for constructive dialogue between those engaged in developing and implementing GMH interventions and those critical of some of its approaches