QUEST II. A Multi-Country Business Cycle and Growth Model

QUEST was designed to analyse the economies in the Member States of the European Union and their interaction with the rest of the world. The paper presents a new version of the QUEST model which is now considerably modified with respect to its theoretical structure. It first presents a model description for the following sectors: household behaviour, firm behaviour and government. Then, it proposes the markets and prices equations. The second section contains standard simulations. It first considers monetary policy and fiscal policy shocks, then an example of a productivity shock.II/511/97-ENQUEST was designed to analyse the economies in the member states of the European Union and their interactions with the rest of the world, especially with the United States and Japan. The focus of the model is on the transmission of the effects of economic policy both on the domestic and the international economy. The model was primarily constructed to serve as a tool for policy simulation; less emphasis was put on its ability to serve as a forecasting tool. Given the wide coverage of the model it must necessarily be highly aggregated. A high degree of aggregation and foundation of the specification in current macroeconomic theory also helps in interpreting and understanding the results of the simulations. Finally simplicity also facilitates the solution of the model and reduces the time and memory requirements of the computer-simulations. The new model contains structural models for the EU member states, the US and Japan and distinguishes 10 additional countries/regions in trade feedback models in order to model trade interactions with the rest of the world.Compared to the former version of the QUEST model, which was presented in European Economy No. 47 (1991), the new model is now considerably modified with respect to its theoretical structure. The previous version of QUEST was deeply rooted in the Keynesian tradition of econometric model building, strongly stressing the demand side of the economy and modelling consumer and investment behaviour in a backward looking fashion. In the new version an attempt was made to base the behavioural equations more strongly on principles of dynamic optimisation of private households and firms. That makes the model substantially more forward looking. Also the supply side is now more explicitly modelled. The present model is also closed with respect to stock-flow interactions. Those stock variables which can be identified on a macroeconomic level such as physical capital, net foreign assets, money and government debt are endogenously determined and wealth effects are allowed to influence savings, production and investment decisions of private households, firms and the government. Moreover, financial linkages between national economies are now more explicitly modelled. In the current version it is assumed that assets determined in different currencies are perfect substitutes - up to an exogenous risk premium. Consistent modelling of international trade and financial linkages also require that at each instant two adding-up constraints hold: trade balances and net foreign asset positions sum to zero. Also the long run properties of the model are now systematically explored.Apart from simulations related to the Commission's short and medium term projections, the model has been intensively used to analyse the impact of the Maastricht criteria on growth and employment and the long run effects of fiscal consolidation and structural reforms in Europe (e.g. Bayar et al., 1997a). Related to this, the model was used to study the impact of monetary policy on the success of government expenditure cuts (Roeger and in 't Veld, 1997a), and the macroeconomic effects of various tax reforms (Roeger and in 't Veld, 1997b) and VAT harmonisation (Bayar, Roeger and in 't Veld, 1997). The model has also been used to assess the employment and growth effects of the Trans European Transport Networks (European Commission, 1996), while the models for Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain have been used to look at the macroeconomic effects of the Structural Funds (Roeger, 1996b).quest, economic cycle, modelling

How to close the productivity gap between the US and Europe: A quantitative assessment using a semi-endogenous growth model

This paper uses a semi-endogenous growth model to identify possible sources for three interrelated stylised differences between the EU and the US, namely a higher level of productivity and knowledge investment and larger skill premia in the US compared to the EU. The model allows us to explain these differences in terms of differences in subsidies to R and D, mark ups, administrative entry barriers and financial frictions.The paper provides a ranking about the relative importance of these factors. Goods market competition and both administrative and financial entry barriers are the most important explanatory factors for lower productivity in the EU, while entry barriers explain the bulk of the knowledge investment gap and high skilled wage premia.productivity differences endogenous growth R and D market structure skill composition dynamic general equilibrium modelling Economic P how to close the productivity gap between the US a quantitative assessment using a semi-endogenou Varga Roeger in 't Veld European Economy. Economic Papers

Using a DSGE model to look at the recent boom-bust cycle in the US

This paper presents a DSGE model with residential investment and credit-constrained households estimated with US data over the period 1980Q1-2008Q4. In order to better understand speculative movements of house prices, we model land as an exhaustible resource, implying that house prices have asset market characteristics.We conduct an event study for the US over the period 1999Q1-2008Q4 which has been characterised by a housing boom and bust and examine which shocks have contributed to the evolution of GDP and its components over this period. We devote special attention to the contribution of non-fundamental shocks to asset prices over this episode.Using a DSGE model to look at the recent boom-bu,DSGE model,Housing,Credit constraint,collateral,Bubbles,Shocks,Ratto,Roeger,in 't Veld,European Economy. Economic Papers

Structural Reforms in the EU: A simulation-based analysis using the QUEST model with endogenous growth

This paper describes the endogenous growth version of the QUEST III model and uses it to analyse the macroeconomic impact of various structural reform measures. This paper describes a micro-founded DSGE model with endogenous growth that is used to analyse the macroeconomic impact of structural reforms in Europe. The new QUEST III model is a useful tool for analysing the costs and benefits of reforms in terms of concrete and quantifiable policy measures, in particular fiscal policy instruments such as taxes, benefits, subsidies and education expenditures, administrative costs faced by firms and regulatory indices. Our results confirm the beneficial effects on output and employment of skill-biased tax reforms, measures that improve the skill composition of the labour force, R&D subsidies, raising competition in final goods market, increased financial market integration and measures that remove entry barriers in certain markets. The model also allows us to examine the adjustment path and the time lags involved before these benefits can be reaped.Structural reforms, endogenous growth, R&D, DSGE modelling, Roeger, Varga , in 't Veld, Structural Reforms in the EU: A simulation-based analysis using the QUEST model with endogenous growth

Fiscal policy with credit constrained households

This paper explores the effects of discretionary fiscal policy in a DSGE model that explicitly models housing investment and allows for credit constrained households along the lines of the financial accelerator literature.The presence of credit constrained households raises the marginal propensity to consume out of transitory tax reductions and increases in transfers, and makes fiscal policy a more powerful tool for short run stabilisation. Fiscal policy is more effective when credit constraints increase, when measures are temporary, and when monetary policy is accommodative.This is a timely issue in the current financial crisis which can be characterised by a substantial negative demand shock and tighter credit constraints.Fiscal Policy, Fiscal Multiplier, Government Deficits, Credit Constraint, DSGE modelling, Fiscal Policy with Credit Constrained Households, QUEST, Roeger, in 't Veld, DGSE

Some selected simulation experiments with the European Commission's QUEST model

This paper presents a set of simulation experiments using the European Commission's QUEST model to evaluate the effects of policy impulses and permanent supply side shocks in the four major EU economies. The simulation analysis illustrates the transmission mechanisms of specific monetary and fiscal policy shocks as well as two examples of permanent supply shocks.QUEST model, supply side shocks, monetary and fiscal policy, R�ger, in 't Veld,

QUEST III: an estimated DSGE model of the euro area with fiscal and monetary policy

This paper develops a DSGE model for an open economy and estimates it on euro area data using Bayesian estimation techniques. The model features nominal and real frictions, as well as financial frictions in the form of liquidity constrained households. The model incorporates active monetary and fiscal policy rules (for government consumption, investment, transfers and wage taxes) and can be used to analyse the effectiveness of stabilisation policies. To capture the unit root character of macroeconomic time-series we allow for stochastic trend in TFP, but instead of filtering data prior to estimation, we estimate the model in growth rates and stationary nominal ratios.QUEST, QUEST model, DGSE, DSGE modelling, fiscal policy, stabilisation policies, euro area, Ratto , Roeger , Jan in 't Veld

Fiscal policy in the EU in the crisis: a model-based approach

This paper uses a multi region DSGE model with collateral constrained households and residential investment to examine the effectiveness of fiscal policy stimulus measures in a credit crisis. The paper explores alternative scenarios which differ by the type of budgetary measure, its length, the degree of monetary accommodation and the level of international coordination. In particular we provide estimates for New EU Member States where we take into account two aspects. First, debt denomination in foreign currency and second, higher nominal interest rates, which makes it less likely that the Central Bank is restricted by the zero bound and will consequently not accommodate a fiscal stimulus. We also compare our results to other recent results obtained in the literature on fiscal policy which generally do not consider credit constrained households.Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, Fiscal Multiplier, Collateral Constraint, DSGE modelling

Fiscal policy in the EU in the crisis: A model-based approach

This paper uses a multi region DSGE model with collateral constrained households and residential investment to examine the effectiveness of fiscal policy stimulus measures in a credit crisis. The paper explores alternative scenarios which differ by the type of budgetary measure, its length, the degree of monetary accommodation and the level of international coordination. In particular we provide estimates for New EU Member States where we take into account two aspects. First, debt denomination in foreign currency and second, higher nominal interest rates, which makes it less likely that the Central Bank is restricted by the zero bound and will consequently not accommodate a fiscal stimulus. We also compare our results to other recent results obtained in the literature on fiscal policy which generally do not consider credit constrained households

Beschäftigungsentwicklung der Dax-30-Unternehmen in den Jahren 2000-2006

Strategische Allianzen, Zu- und Verkäufe, die Schaffung neuer Produktionsanlagen und sowie Produktionsverlagerungen als unternehmerische Handlungsfelder füllen die Tagespresse. Unternehmen rechtfertigen ihren Aktivismus oft mit der Erschließung neuer Märkte und die Konzentration auf Kerngeschäftsfelder. Das verleitet dazu, anzunehmen, dass der Personalbestand konzernweit steigt (um weitere Märkte abzudecken), er sich nur dadurch verändert, dass Unternehmen zu- und verkaufen oder Geschäftsfelder aufgeben und Zukäufe nur in den deklarierten Kerngeschäftsfeldern stattfinden. Diese Annahmen bilden die Grundlage der vorliegenden Marktanalyse, die folgende Informationen erhebt:Wie haben sich die Beschäftigtenzahlen der einzelnen DAX 30-Unternehmen zwischen den Jahren 2000 und 2006 tatsächlich verändert? Und - sofern dies aus den Geschäftsberichten hervorgeht - welche Zu- bzw. Verkäufe sind in diesem Zeitraum von den einzelnen Unternehmen getätigt und wie viele Arbeitnehmer damit transferiert worden? Der Text hat diese Zahlen akribisch herausgefiltert und interpretiert. Er liefert einen - teils verblüffenden - Eindruck in die Entwicklung der Beschäftigtenzahlen über einen Zeitraum von 6 Jahren