3 research outputs found
Sustainability implications of Rwandaâs Vision 2050 long-term development strategy
Improving livelihoods in Rwanda requires overcoming food insecurity and malnutrition. Vision 2050 is Rwandaâs long-term development strategy, yet little is known about its potential trade-offs for the countryâs biodiversity, forest cover, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Scenario analysis can provide insights into how to achieve such goals more sustainably. Here, we use the Food, Agriculture, Biodiversity, Land-Use, and Energy (FABLE) Calculator, a simple integrated assessment tool, to explore potential sustainability implications by 2050 through two scenarios: (1) Current Trends and (2) Vision 2050. The Vision 2050 pathway incorporates components of the governmentâs long-term development strategy and associated national agricultural policy targets. It includes greater increases in crop productivity and decreases in post-harvest losses, and shifts to more sustainable diets, compared to the Current Trends pathway. Results show that the Vision 2050 pathway would, relative to Current Trends, lead to a greater decrease in agricultural land area and an increase in non-forested natural land-cover area, with consequent decreases in GHG emissions from agriculture, increases in carbon sequestration, and increases in the share of land that can support biodiversity conservation. Shifts to a healthier diet in the Vision 2050 pathway would only be compatible with national agricultural priorities if these diets favor consumption of foods that underpin sustainable livelihoods in Rwanda, such as beans, cassava, potatoes, sweet potatoes, banana, and corn. We discuss the potential for integrated land-use planning and adoption of agroecological farming practices to help Rwanda achieve food security, livelihood, biodiversity, and climate mitigation goals in tandem
A decentralized approach to model national and global food and land use systems
The achievement of several sustainable development goals and the Paris Climate Agreement depends on rapid progress towards sustainable food and land systems in all countries. We have built a flexible, collaborative modeling framework to foster the development of national pathways by local research teams and their integration up to global scale. Local researchers independently customize national models to explore mid-century pathways of the food and land use system transformation in collaboration with stakeholders. An online platform connects the national models, iteratively balances global exports and imports, and aggregates results to the global level. Our results show that actions toward greater sustainability in countries could sum up to 1 Mha net forest gain per year, 950 Mha net gain in the land where natural processes predominate, and an increased CO2 sink of 3.7 GtCO2e yrâ1 over the period 2020â2050 compared to current trends, while average food consumption per capita remains above the adequate food requirements in all countries. We show examples of how the global linkage impacts national results and how different assumptions in national pathways impact global results. This modeling setup acknowledges the broad heterogeneity of socio-ecological contexts and the fact that people who live in these different contexts should be empowered to design the future they want. But it also demonstrates to local decision-makers the interconnectedness of our food and land use system and the urgent need for more collaboration to converge local and global priorities
How can diverse national food and land-use priorities be reconciled with global sustainability targets? Lessons from the FABLE initiative
There is an urgent need for countries to transition their national food and land-use systems toward food and nutritional security, climate stability, and environmental integrity. How can countries satisfy their demands while jointly delivering the required transformative change to achieve global sustainability targets? Here, we present a collaborative approach developed with the FABLEâFood, Agriculture, Biodiversity, Land, and EnergyâConsortium to reconcile both global and national elements for developing national food and land-use system pathways. This approach includes three key features: (1) global targets, (2) country-driven multi-objective pathways, and (3) multiple iterations of pathway refinement informed by both national and international impacts. This approach strengthens policy coherence and highlights where greater national and international ambition is needed to achieve global goals (e.g., the SDGs). We discuss how this could be used to support future climate and biodiversity negotiations and what further developments would be needed