Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Additional lesions identified by genomic microarrays are associated with an inferior outcome in low-risk chronic lymphocytic leukaemia patients

We explored the relevance of genomic microarrays (GM) in the refinement of prognosis in newly diagnosed low-risk chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL) patients as defined by isolated del(13q) or no lesions by a standard 4 probe fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) analysis. Compared to FISH, additional lesions were detected by GM in 27 of the 119 patients (22.7%). The concordance rate between FISH and GM was 87.4%. Discordant results between cytogenetic banding analysis (CBA) and GM were observed in 45/119 cases (37.8%) and were mainly due to the intrinsic characteristics of each technique. The presence of additional lesions by GM was associated with age > 65 years (p = 0.047), advanced Binet stage (p = 0.001), CLL-IPI score (p < 0.001), a complex karyotype (p = 0.004) and a worse time-to-first treatment in multivariate analysis (p = 0.009). Additional lesions by GM were also significantly associated with a worse time-to-first treatment in the subset of patients with wild-type TP53 and mutated IGHV (p = 0.025). In CLL patients with low-risk features, the presence of additional lesions identified by GM helps to identify a subset of patients with a worse outcome that could be proposed for a risk-adapted follow-up and for early treatment including targeted agents within clinical trials

Stereotyped subset #1 chronic lymphocytic leukemia: a direct link between B-cell receptor structure, function, and patients' prognosis.

Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) with stereotyped B-cell receptor (BCR) belonging to subset #1 (IGHV1-5-7/IGKV1-39) display a poor outcome. To characterize their genetic and genomic features and BCR function, we selected 20 subset #1 CLL from a series of 579 cases. Subset #1 CLL, all showing unmutated IGHV, were associated with the presence of del(11q) (50%) in comparison with unmutated CLL, unmutated stereotyped CLL other than subset #1 and with cases using the same IGHV genes but a heterogeneous VH CDR3 (non-subset #1 CLL). There were no distinctive features regarding CD38, ZAP-70, and TP53 disruption. NOTCH1, SF3B1, and BIRC3 were mutated in 15%, 0%, and 5% of cases, respectively, while BIRC3 was deleted in 22% of cases. Microarray unsupervised analysis on 80 unmutated/mutated/stereotyped/non-stereotyped CLL showed a tight clustering of subset #1 cases. Their genomic signature exhibited several differentially expressed transcripts involved in BCR signal transduction, apoptosis regulation, cell proliferation, and oxidative processes, regardless of del(11q). Accordingly, BCR ligation with anti-IgM revealed a significant higher proliferation of subset #1 versus unmutated non-subset #1 CLL, both at baseline and after 24-48 hr stimulation. Subset #1 CLL represent a paradigmatic example of the direct link between BCR structure, function, and patients prognosis

Treatment with ibrutinib does not induce a TP53 clonal evolution in chronic lymphocytic leukemia

:Treatment with ibrutinib does not induce a TP53 clonal evolution in chronic lymphocytic leukemi

Inter- and intra-patient clonal and subclonal heterogeneity of chronic lymphocytic leukaemia: evidences from circulating and lymph nodal compartments

Whole exome sequencing and copy number aberration (CNA) analysis were performed on cells taken from peripheral blood (PB) and lymph nodes (LN) of patients with chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL). Of 64 non-silent somatic mutations, 54 (84·4%) were clonal in both compartments, 3 (4·7%) were PB-specific and 7 (10·9%) were LN-specific. Most of the LN- or PB-specific mutations were subclonal in the other corresponding compartment (variant frequency 0·5-5·3%). Of 41 CNAs, 27 (65·8%) were shared by both compartments and 7 (17·1%) were LN- or PB-specific. Overall, 6 of 9 cases (66·7%) showed genomic differences between the compartments. At subsequent relapse, Case 10, with 6 LN-specific lesions, and Case 100, with 6 LN-specific and 8 PB-specific lesions, showed, in the PB, the clonal expansion of LN-derived lesions with an adverse impact: SF3B1 mutation, BIRC3 deletion, del8(p23·3-p11·1), del9(p24·3-p13·1) and gain 2(p25·3-p14). CLL shows an intra-patient clonal heterogeneity according to the disease compartment, with both LN and PB-specific mutations/CNAs. The LN microenvironment might contribute to the clonal selection of unfavourable lesions, as LN-derived mutations/CNAs can appear in the PB at relapse

Immunoglobulin gene rearrangements in Chinese and Italian patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia

Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) is the most common type of leukemia in the Western world, whereas in Asia the incidence is about 10 times lower. The basis for this ethnic and geographic variation is currently unknown. The aim of this study was to characterize IGHVDJ rearrangements and stereotype of the HCDR3 region in a series of 623 Chinese CLL, in order to identify possible differences in immunoglobulin gene usage and their potential pathogenetic implications. Chinese CLL were compared to 789 Italian CLL. Chinese patients showed a higher proportion of mutated IGHV and a more frequent usage of IGHV3-7, IGHV3-74, IGHV4-39 and IGHV4-59 genes. A significantly lower usage of IGHV1-69 and IGHV1-2 was documented, with comparable IGHV3-21 frequency (3% Chinese vs 3.8% Italian CLL). The proportion of known stereotyped receptors was significantly lower in Chinese (19.7%) than in Italian CLL (25.8%), despite a significantly higher frequency of subset #8 (p= 0.0001). Moreover, new paired clusters were identified among Chinese cases. Overall, these data support a potential different antigenic exposure between Eastern and Western CLL

Biallelic BIRC3 inactivation in chronic lymphocytic leukaemia patients with 11q deletion identifies a subgroup with very aggressive disease

Biallelic BIRC3 inactivation in chronic lymphocytic leukaemia patients with 11q deletion identifies a subgroup with very aggressive disease

In chronic lymphocytic leukaemia with complex karyotype, major structural abnormalities identify a subset of patients with inferior outcome and distinct biological characteristics

Complex karyotype (CK) is a negative prognostic factor in chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL). However, CK is a heterogeneous cytogenetic category. Unbalanced rearrangements were present in 73\ub73% of 90 CLL patients with CK (i.e. 653 chromosome aberrations in the same clone), and were associated with a shorter overall survival (P\ua0=\ua00\ub7025) and a shorter time to first treatment (P\ua0=\ua00\ub7043) by multivariate analysis. Patients with unbalanced rearrangements presented a distinct mRNA expression profile. In conclusion, CLL patients with unbalanced rearrangements might represent a subset of very high-risk CLL patients with distinct clinical and biological characteristics