Challenges and ways forward for sustainable weather and climate services in Africa

Sustainability of African weather and climate information can only be ensured by investing in improved scientific understanding, observational data, and model capability. These requirements must be underpinned by capacity development, knowledge management and partnerships of co-production, communication and coordination

Using co-production to improve the appropriate use of sub-seasonal forecasts in Africa

Forecasts on sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales have huge potential to aid preparedness and disaster risk reduction planning decisions in a variety of sectors. However, realising this potential depends on the provision of reliable information that can be appropriately applied in the decision-making context of users. This study describes the African SWIFT (Science for Weather Information and Forecasting Techniques) forecasting testbed which brings together researchers, forecast producers and users from a range of African and UK institutions. The forecasting testbed is piloting the provision of real-time, bespoke S2S forecast products to decision-makers in Africa. Drawing on data from the kick-off workshop and initial case study examples, this study critically reflects on the co-production process. Specifically, having direct access to real-time data has allowed user-guided iterations to the spatial scale, timing, visualisation and communication of forecast products to make them more actionable for users. Some key lessons for effective co-production are emerging. First, it is critical to ensure there is sufficient resource to support co-production, especially in the early co-exploration of needs. Second, all the groups in the co-production process require capacity building to effectively work in new knowledge systems. Third, evaluation should be ongoing and combine meteorological verification with decision-makers feedback. Ensuring the sustainability of project-initiated services within the testbed hinges on integrating the knowledge-exchanges between individuals in the co-production process into shaping sustainable pathways for improved operational S2S forecasting within African institutions

Case Study of Pollutants Concentration Sensitivity to Meteorological Fields and Land Use Parameters over Douala (Cameroon) Using AERMOD Dispersion Model

This paper deals with the simulation of the NOx concentration over Douala for the period 2002–2006 by means of the American Meteorological Society (AMS)/Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Regulatory Model (AERMOD) model, version 07026. Its sensitivity to local meteorological fields and land use parameters are investigated by selecting different buildings (receptors) specific direction and distance from the source and by making changes in land use parameters. Results reveal variations in concentration patterns depending on the roughness length, albedo and the Bowen ratio. Changes in the albedo as well as the Bowen ratio only alter the concentration patterns during convective conditions. For a short averaging time, changes in albedo and Bowen ratio have the same effects on the concentration patterns. These results not only help to accurately choose the indicated areas for implanting industrial sites, to manage risk assessment exposure to pollutants in Douala city and addressing recommendations to policies makers

Strengthening weather forecast and dissemination capabilities in Central Africa: Case assessment of intense flooding in January 2020

The first dekad of January 2020 was characterised by heavy precipitation in the capital of the Republic of Congo, Brazzaville, which led to several localised landslides. Satellite-derived rainfall estimates and rain-gauge totals illustrate a strong wet spell between the 6th and 9th January 2020 across southern Congo. This study highlights the generation and implementation of user-driven weather and climate forecast bulletins, developed at the Economic Communities of Central African States (ECCAS) Climate Application and Prediction Centre (CAPC), to reduce the impacts associated with intense precipitation during this dekad. Through doing so, we document the current state of regional-scale climate services across Central Africa. Advisories and outlooks generated by CAPC use risk matrices developed by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and are produced at hourly, daily, sub-seasonal, and seasonal timescales. To develop them, meteorologists and climate scientists at CAPC combine information from a wide range of meteorological observations and forecasts. Regional-scale forecasts are downscaled to individual countries to improve accessibility and relevance.Central African users have reported that bulletins provide support for mitigating against the impacts of extreme weather and have requested more reliable sub-seasonal and seasonal forecast products. In this paper we take the opportunity to discuss the resources obtained through the Satellite and Weather Information for Disaster Resilience (SAWIDRA) framework, which are often taken for granted in developed nations, including the procurement of a high performance computing system, satellite data and numerical models outputs receiving stations. This study is the first to highlight the current state of regional-scale climate services across Central Africa and motivates further co-production of climate services across the region