Working paper 08-07 - An accuracy assessment of FPB’s medium-term projections

The Federal Planning Bureau has been publishing medium-term macroeconomic projections for the Belgian economy since the beginning of the eighties. In this working paper past projection errors are scrutinised to give users a broad idea of the uncertainties surrounding these projections. The analysis reveals that projections for most of the macro-economic variables show no statistically significant bias with the notable exception of the evolution of exports and labour productivity which was clearly overestimated, while labour force growth was systematically underestimated. Examination of the role played by the main exogenous variables shows the importance of potential export markets in explaining projection errors on GDP and components. However, losses in export market shares were underestimated in most economic outlooks. Concerning the labour force, the origin of the projection error changed over time: attributable almost exclusively to errors in the average participation rate at the beginning of the sample, from 1997 onwards the relative contribution of errors on working-age population increased gradually.Forecast accuracy

Working Paper 06-03 - MODTRIM II : A quarterly model for the Belgian economy

Since 1994 the Federal Planning Bureau has been using the annual version of the econometric model modtrim as a central tool to produce its short-term macroeconomic forecasts. At the origin of the project, and as its name indicates, this annual version was meant to be short-lived and quickly replaced by a quarterly version. Unfortunately, the lack of quarterly national accounts prevented from doing so for several years. In 1998, the Institute for National Accounts published official quarterly accounts for the first time and the construction of the quarterly version of the model started in Spring 2000. On that occasion, the opportunity was taken to reassess all behavioural equations of the model. The more limited availability of quarterly data, in comparison with annual data, implied that a more aggregated version of the accounting framework of the yearly model had to be constructed.

Working Paper 10-09 - Impact de la crise financière sur le PIB potentiel de la Belgique

The concepts of potential growth and output gap are important tools to evaluate the state of the business cycle and to assess the supply-side capacity of an economy. They have also become an essential ingredient of the European fiscal surveillance process. However, the global economy is facing its most widespread crisis in the post-war era and consequently the uncertainty regarding the impact of the crisis on supply-side conditions is enormous.  In this Working Paper we compare revisions on potential growth for Belgium made recently by the Federal Planning Bureau and international organizations. Those comparisons aim at highlighting the uncertainty associated with those revisions as well as understanding better some of the channels through which the crisis may reduce potential output.Potential output, Output gap, Financial crisis

Working paper 04-06 - Fiscal councils, independent forecasts and the budgetary process: lessons from the Belgian case

This paper describes the operating mode of the two existing Belgian fiscal councils as well as their role in the budgetary planning process. These institutions, created or reformed in depth in a context of large public deficits and increasing public debt-to-GDP ratios coupled with the regionalization of the Belgian state, are the result of a maturing process. The National Accounts Institute covers the positive side of the budgetary process, while the High Council of Finance deals with the normative side. Concerning the former domain, the creation of an independent institution to provide unbiased forecasts undeniably contributed to the consolidation of public finances in Belgium. In the context of the revised Stability and Growth Pact, lessons drawn from the Belgian experience can certainly be useful for other Member States willing to improve their fiscal institutional settings. Our chief recommendations for making the budgetary process successful are: institutions dealing with positive economics should enjoy a fully independent status but remain public; positive and normative issues should be completely separated from an institutional point of view; and responsibility should be shared between several strong independent institutions so as to minimize political pressure.Fiscal institution, Budgetary Process, Forecast accuracy

Diffuse continuum gamma rays from the Galaxy

A new study of the diffuse Galactic gamma-ray continuum radiation is presented, using a cosmic-ray propagation model which includes nucleons, antiprotons, electrons, positrons, and synchrotron radiation. Our treatment of the inverse Compton (IC) scattering includes the effect of anisotropic scattering in the Galactic interstellar radiation field (ISRF) and a new evaluation of the ISRF itself. Models based on locally measured electron and nucleon spectra and synchrotron constraints are consistent with gamma-ray measurements in the 30-500 MeV range, but outside this range excesses are apparent. A harder nucleon spectrum is considered but fitting to gamma rays causes it to violate limits from positrons and antiprotons. A harder interstellar electron spectrum allows the gamma-ray spectrum to be fitted above 1 GeV as well, and this can be further improved when combined with a modified nucleon spectrum which still respects the limits imposed by antiprotons and positrons. A large electron/IC halo is proposed which reproduces well the high-latitude variation of gamma-ray emission. The halo contribution of Galactic emission to the high-latitude gamma-ray intensity is large, with implications for the study of the diffuse extragalactic component and signatures of dark matter. The constraints provided by the radio synchrotron spectral index do not allow all of the <30 MeV gamma-ray emission to be explained in terms of a steep electron spectrum unless this takes the form of a sharp upturn below 200 MeV. This leads us to prefer a source population as the origin of the excess low-energy gamma rays.Comment: Final version accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal (vol. 537, July 10, 2000 issue); Many Updates; 20 pages including 49 ps-figures, uses emulateapj.sty. More details can be found at http://www.gamma.mpe-garching.mpg.de/~aws/aws.htm

Measurement of the cosmic ray spectrum above 4×10184{\times}10^{18} eV using inclined events detected with the Pierre Auger Observatory

A measurement of the cosmic-ray spectrum for energies exceeding $4{\times}10^{18}$ eV is presented, which is based on the analysis of showers with zenith angles greater than $60^{\circ}$ detected with the Pierre Auger Observatory between 1 January 2004 and 31 December 2013. The measured spectrum confirms a flux suppression at the highest energies. Above $5.3{\times}10^{18}$ eV, the "ankle", the flux can be described by a power law $E^{-\gamma}$ with index $\gamma=2.70 \pm 0.02 \,\text{(stat)} \pm 0.1\,\text{(sys)}$ followed by a smooth suppression region. For the energy ($E_\text{s}$) at which the spectral flux has fallen to one-half of its extrapolated value in the absence of suppression, we find $E_\text{s}=(5.12\pm0.25\,\text{(stat)}^{+1.0}_{-1.2}\,\text{(sys)}){\times}10^{19}$ eV.Comment: Replaced with published version. Added journal reference and DO