Forecasting Inflation in Mexico Using Factor Models: Do Disaggregated CPI Data Improve Forecast Accuracy?

In this paper we apply a dynamic factor model to generate out of sample forecasts for the inflation rate in Mexico. We evaluate the role of using a wide range of macroeconomic variables with particular interest on the importance of using CPI disaggregated data to forecast inflation. Our data set contains 54 macroeconomic series and 243 CPI subcomponents from 1988 to 2008. Our results indicate that: i) Factor models outperform the benchmark autoregressive model at horizons of one, two, four and six quarters, ii) Using disaggregated price data improves forecasting performance, and iii) The factors are related to key variables in the economy such as output growth and inflation.Factor models, Inflation forecasting, Disaggregate information, Principal components, Forecast evaluation.

Stocks, Bonds and the Investment Horizon: A Spatial Dominance Approach

Financial advisors typically recommend that a long-term investor should hold a higher percentage of his wealth in stocks than a short-term investor. However, part of the academic literature disagrees with this advice. We use a spatial dominance test which is suited for comparing alternative investments when their distributions are time-varying. Using daily data for the US from 1965 to 2008, we test for dominance of cumulative returns series for stocks versus bonds at different investment horizons from one to ten years. We find that bonds second order spatially dominate stocks for one and two year horizons. For horizons of nine years or longer, we find evidence that stocks dominate bonds. When different portfolios of stocks and bonds are compared, we find that for long investment horizons, only those portfolios with a sufficiently high proportion of stocks are efficient in the sense of spatial dominance.Investment decisions, Investment horizon, Stochastic dominance.

Stocks, bonds and the investment horizon: A spatial dominance approach

Financial advisors typically recommend that a long-term investor should hold a higher percentage of his wealth in stocks than a short-term investor. However, part of the academic literature disagrees with this advice. We use a spatial dominance test which is suited for comparing alternative investments when their distributions are time-varying. Using daily data for the US from 1965 to 2008, we test for dominance of cumulative returns series for stocks versus bonds at different investment horizons from one to ten years. We find that bonds second order spatially dominate stocks for one and two year horizons. For horizons of nine years or longer, we find evidence that stocks dominate bonds. When different portfolios of stocks and bonds are compared, we find that for long investment horizons, only those portfolios with a suffciently high proportion of stocks are effcient in the sense of spatial dominance

Forecasting Inflation in Mexico using factor models: Do disaggregated CPI data improve forecast accuracy?

In this paper we apply a dynamic factor model to generate out of sample forecasts for the inflation rate in Mexico. We evaluate the role of using a wide range of macroeconomic variables with particular interest on the importance of using CPI disaggregated data to forecast inflation. Our data set contains 54 macroeconomic series and 243 CPI subcomponents from 1988 to 2008. Our results indicate that: i) Factor models outperform the benchmark autoregressive model at horizons of one, two, four and six quarters, ii) Using disaggregated price data improves forecasting performance, and iii) The factors are related to key variables in the economy such as output growth and inflation

How Far Do Shocks Move Across Borders? Examining Volatility Transmission in Major Agricultural Futures Markets

This paper examines the level of interdependence and volatility transmission in global agricultural futures markets. We follow a multivariate GARCH approach to explore the dynamics and cross-dynamics of volatility across major exchanges of corn, wheat, and soybeans between the United States, Europe, and Asia. We account for the potential bias that may arise when considering exchanges with different closing times. The results indicate that agricultural markets are highly interrelated and there are both own- and cross- volatility spillovers and dependence among most of the exchanges. The results also show the major role Chicago plays in terms of spillover effects over the other markets, particularly for corn and wheat. Additionally, the level of interdependence between exchanges has only increased in recent years for some of the commodities.Volatility transmission, agricultural commodities, futures markets, Multivariate GARCH.

Significado referencial versus significado pretendido: un contraste entre lo establecido y lo planificado para el tema de las ecuaciones lineales en el bachillerato mexicano

Se muestran los resultados de un estudio realizado con el objetivo de analizar la correspondencia entre los significados institucionales de referencia establecidos por el currículum algebraico mexicano y los significados institucionalmente pretendidos, expuestos en libros de texto y planeaciones didácticas de profesores de bachillerato, con respecto al tema de las ecuaciones lineales. Esta investigación tiene sustento en herramientas teóricas del Enfoque Onto-Semiótico (EOS) del Conocimiento y la Instrucción Matemáticos propuesto por Godino y sus colaboradores. Los análisis realizados muestran la importancia y el alto impacto que tiene el currículo en las planeaciones docentes, evidenciando con ello el cuidado que debe ponerse en su elaboración. Además, se resaltan las diferencias identificadas, las cuales se relacionan con la formación del profesorado y las circunstancias institucionales, mismas que juegan un papel importante para que existan diferencias entre lo pretendido por el currículo y lo pretendido por los profesores

Análisis de instrumentos de evaluación del aprendizaje de las ecuaciones lineales. Un estudio de casos con profesores del bachillerato mexicano

Se realizó un estudio cuyo objetivo fue caracterizar las prácticas de evaluación del aprendizaje que manifiestan profesores del bachillerato mexicano al abordar el tema de las ecuaciones lineales. Los avances que aquí se presentan consisten en la identificación, análisis y descripción de los instrumentos de evaluación propuestos e implementados por dos profesores en sus aulas. La investigación tiene sustento en herramientas teóricas del Enfoque Ontosemiótico (EOS) del conocimiento y la instrucción matemáticos, propuesto por Godino y sus colaboradores. Se concluye que a pesar de la existencia de un modelo educativo basado en competencias, sigue prevaleciendo una práctica evaluativa centrada principalmente en la aplicación de exámenes escritos

How far do shocks move across borders? Examining volatility transmission in major agricultural futures markets

This paper examines the level of interdependence and volatility transmission in global agricultural futures markets. We follow a multivariate GARCH approach to explore the dynamics and cross-dynamics of volatility across major exchanges of corn, wheat, and soybeans between the United States, Europe, and Asia. We account for the potential bias that may arise when considering exchanges with different closing times. The results indicate that agricultural markets are highly interrelated and there are both own- and cross-volatility spillovers and dependence among most of the exchanges. The results also show the major role Chicago plays in terms of spillover effects over the other markets, particularly for corn and wheat. Additionally, the level of interdependence between exchanges has only increased in recent years for some of the commodities

Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Prices: Evidence from Mexico

This paper analyzes the pass-through of exchange rate to different price indexes in Mexico. The analysis is based on a vector autoregressive model (VAR) using monthly data from January 1997 to December 2010. The pass-through effects are calculated by means of accumulated impulse response functions to a recursively identified exchange rate shock. The results show that the exchange rate pass-through to import prices is complete, but it declines along the distribution chain in such a way that the impact on consumer prices is below 20 percent. Moreover, we find that the exchange rate pass-through seems to have decreased substantially from 2001 onwards, which coincides with the adoption of an inflation targeting regime by Banco de Mexico.Exchange rate pass-through, import price, consumer price, distribution chain, inflation.

Analysis of baccalaureate teachers’ discourse on theirs assessment practices of learning linear equations

II Congreso Internacional Virtual sobre el Enfoque Ontosemiótico del Conocimiento y la Instrucción Matemáticos (CIVEOS-2), 23-26 de marzo de 2017. [http://enfoqueontosemiotico.ugr.es/]El propósito de esta investigación es caracterizar las prácticas de evaluación del aprendizaje que desarrollan profesores de matemáticas en el bachillerato mexicano (15-18 años). Para su realización fueron seleccionadas algunas herramientas teóricas del Enfoque Ontosemiótico del Conocimiento y la Instrucción Matemáticos (EOS). Se presenta un análisis parcial de la práctica discursiva de dos profesores al abordar el tema de ecuaciones lineales. Los resultados permiten evidenciar lo que para ellos significa enseñar álgebra y su propio significado de las ecuaciones lineales, elementos que permean fuertemente sus prácticas de enseñanza, y particularmente sus prácticas de evaluación del aprendizaje.The purpose of this research is to characterize the learning assessment practices developed by teachers of mathematics in Mexican high school (15-18 years). For its realization, some theoretical tools of the Onto-semiotic Approach to Mathematical Knowledge and Instruction (OSA) were selected. We present a partial analysis of two teachers’ discursive practice when dealing with the subject of linear equations. The results allow us to highlight what it means for them to teach algebra and its own meaning on linear equations, elements that strongly permeate their teaching practices, and particularly their learning assessment practices