The impact of Universal Credit rollout on housing security: an analysis of landlord repossession rates in English local authorities

Housing allowances within the UK’s welfare system help protect low-income households from eviction. Universal Credit (UC) has faced criticism for threatening this with its long wait periods, increased conditionality and monthly direct payments. However, there is currently a lack of robust, national-level quantitative analysis on UC’s housing security impacts. This article addresses this, exploiting cross-area variation in the timing of UC rollout to assess its impact on landlord repossession rates within 323 English local authorities. A fixed-effects panel design was used, linking data from UC’s rollout schedule with Ministry of Justice data on legal repossession actions from 2012 Q1 - 2019 Q1. Results suggest that UC ‘Full Service’ rollout, on average, led to an increase of 1.74 landlord repossession claims, 1.42 landlord repossession orders and 0.70 landlord repossession warrants within local authorities (per 10,000 rented dwellings). This corresponds to a 4–5 percent increase on pre-rollout rates. UC’s impact tended to increase the longer it had been rolled out. Where ‘Full Service’ had been rolled out for 12+ months, it led to an increase of 2.60 landlord repossession claims, 2.89 landlord repossession orders and 1.09 landlord repossession warrants (per 10,000 rented dwellings), corresponding to a 6–10 percent increase on pre-rollout rates

Vaping and socioeconomic inequalities in smoking cessation and relapse:A longitudinal analysis of the UK Household Longitudinal Study

Background: Smoking is a key cause of socioeconomic health inequalities. Vaping is considered less harmful than smoking and has become a popular smoking cessation aid, and therefore has potential to reduce inequalities in smoking. Methods: We used longitudinal data from 25 102 participants in waves 8–10 (2016 to early 2020) of the UK Household Longitudinal Study to examine how vaping affects socioeconomic inequalities in smoking cessation and relapse. Marginal structural models were used to investigate whether vaping mediates or moderates associations between educational attainment and smoking cessation and relapse over time. Multiple imputation and weights were used to adjust for missing data. Results: Respondents without degrees were less likely to stop smoking than those with a degree (OR: 0.65; 95% CI 0.54–0.77), and more likely to relapse (OR: 1.74; 95% CI 1.37–2.22), but this inequality in smoking cessation was not present among regular vapers (OR: 0.99; 95% CI 0.54–1.82). Sensitivity analyses suggested that this finding did not hold when comparing those with or without any qualifications. Inequalities in smoking relapse did not clearly differ by vaping status. Conclusions: Vaping may be especially helpful as a cessation aid for smokers without degree level education and therefore may help reduce inequalities in smoking. Nevertheless, other supports or aids may be needed to reach the most disadvantaged (ie, those with no qualifications) and to help people avoid relapse after cessation, though we did not find clear evidence suggesting that vaping would increase inequalities in relapse

Trading the Risk: Financialisation, Loyalty and Emerging Market Government Policy Autonomy

This thesis considers the link between financialisation and emerging market government policy autonomy. It analyses the government bond markets of three case study countries: Brazil, Lebanon and Turkey. Using extensive interview data in the three countries, and interviews with financial market actors in London and New York, the study explores the investment behaviour of a range of investors: commercial banks; individual investors; mutual funds; pension funds and hedge funds. The thesis uses the framework of financialisation – measured by the ability to trade risk – to analyse both international and domestic investors. The study shows that increased financialisation, of both financial market actors and the structure of government bond markets, generally serves to reduce loyalty and therefore reduces government policy autonomy. However, it is demonstrated that initial financialisation – the development of pension and mutual funds – serves to increase autonomy. This is captured by the construction of an ‘autonomy curve’. The conclusions suggest an updating the use of Hirschman’s concept of voice, exit and loyalty in the analysis of financial markets, to give a greater emphasis on loyalty and to include the use of ‘disloyalty’, the ability to short securities. It is also argued that financialisation is the appropriate framework to analyse processes of change in financial markets. The thesis also makes observations as to the true extent of government policy autonomy in emerging market countries, and policy recommendations regarding those governments’ attitude to financialisation

The impact of Universal Credit rollout on housing insecurity in the UK

A country’s welfare system can have a profound impact on the housing security of its citizens. Welfare systems which include adequate provision of housing allowances can act as a ‘buffer’ that prevents an automatic association between persistent low-income, or a sudden loss of income, and loss of housing. In the UK, Universal Credit (UC) has been rolling out gradually since 2013 to replace six working-age means-tested benefits with a single payment. This represents a major change to the welfare system, and its design of long wait periods, increased conditionality and direct payments has led to concerns over housing security impacts. Using quantitative research methods, this thesis exploits cross-area variation in the timing of UC rollout (arising from the fact that it was introduced in different areas at different times – a form of natural experiment) in order to measure its impacts on housing insecurity. This is carried out by linking data on the timing of UC rollout (at the local authority level) with panel data from administrative/survey datasets on housing insecurity indicators over time Housing insecurity for financial reasons can occur in four, increasingly severe, stages: (1) difficulties meeting rent payments, (2) build up of rent arrears, (3) legal repossession actions by landlord, and (4) threatened or actual homelessness. This thesis involves four separate empirical studies, with each making use of different data sources to examine UC’s impact on different indicators and stages of insecurity. Empirical studies 1 and 2 are fixed effects panel designs examining the impact of UC rollout, respectively, on rates of landlord repossession actions, and advice sought from Citizens Advice on rent arrears/homelessness issues, within English local authorities. Empirical study 3, which is also a fixed effects panel design, examines the impact of UC rollout on rates of ‘Housing Options’ approaches and official homelessness claims within Scottish local authorities. Finally, empirical study 4 is a difference-in-differences analysis of data from the ‘Understanding Society’ survey, examining the impact of UC rollout on household financial problems. Overall, the results suggest that, up to 2019, UC rollout was associated with increases in rates of household problems paying for housing/bills/council tax payments, rent arrears advice issues, landlord repossession actions and ‘Housing Options’ approaches. Taken together, these results provide a robust indication that UC rollout has weakened the UK welfare system’s ability to provide housing security to low-income households

The impact of Universal Credit rollout on homelessness assistance need in Scottish local authorities

Since 2013, the Universal Credit (UC) welfare reform has been rolling out gradually to overhaul the means-tested social security system for working-age people in low-income households in the United Kingdom. Existing research suggests that UC has had a detrimental impact on the housing security of claimants, with evidence of increases in rent arrears and landlord repossession actions as the reform has been rolled out. However, there is currently a lack of evidence on the impact of UC rollout on the most extreme form of housing insecurity—homelessness. This article addresses this gap in knowledge, using Scottish local authority level data obtained from the Scottish Government on monthly rates of Housing Options approaches and statutory homelessness claims, which is linked to data on the timing of UC rollout within local authorities. The staggered nature of UC rollout (i.e., the fact that it rolled out in different local authorities at different times) is exploited in order to measure its impact within 29 Scottish local authorities using fixed effects regression modelling. The results suggest that UC ‘Full Service’ rollout, up to March 2019, was associated with increases in Housing Options approach rates, but there was not clear evidence of an increase in rates of working-age statutory homelessness claims. Redesigning UC to increase its standard allowance and address its long wait periods and harsh sanctions would likely help to protect the housing security of claimants