Competing paradigms in the debate about agricultural pricing policy

SUMMARY This article questions — in light of recent debates — whether typical price reform proposals are feasible and, if so, whether they would be effective in eliciting desired changes in production and distribution. It focuses on the importance of domestic taxation rates and the difficulty of changing them in current circumstances. More fundamentally it questions the importance attached to variations in the nominal exchange rate, and comparative lack of attention given to the historical causes of differentials between domestic and international rates of inflation. SOMMAIRE A la lumière de récents débats, cet article met en question le problème de savoir si des propositions typiques de réformes des prix sont possibles, et, si la réponse est positive, seraient?elles efficaces pour obtenir les changements désirés dans la production et la distribution. Il se concentre sur l'importance des taux d'imposition domestique et la difficulté de les changer dans les circonstances actuelles. Plus fondamentalement, il met en question l'importance attachée aux variations dans le taux de change nominal, et le manque d'attention relatif accordé aux causes historiques des différentiels entre les taux d'inflation domestiques et internationaux. RESUMEN A la luz de debates recientes, este artículo cuestiona si las propuestas típicas de reformas de precios son factibles y, de ser así si serían efectivas en producir los cambios deseados en la producción y distribución. Se centra en la importancia de las tasas internas de impuestos y la dificultad de cambiarlas en las circunstancias actuales. Más fundamentalmente, cuestiona la importancia que se le otorga a las variaciones en la tasa de intercambio nominal y la relativa falta de atención que se le da a las causas históricas de las diferencias entre las tasas de inflación interna e internacional

The new resilience of emerging and developing countries: systemic interlocking, currency swaps and geoeconomics

The vulnerability/resilience nexus that defined the interaction between advanced and developing economies in the post-WWII era is undergoing a fundamental transformation. Yet, most of the debate in the current literature is focusing on the structural constraints faced by the Emerging and Developing Countries (EDCs) and the lack of changes in the formal structures of global economic governance. This paper challenges this literature and its conclusions by focusing on the new conditions of systemic interlocking between advanced and emerging economies, and by analysing how large EDCs have built and are strengthening their economic resilience. We find that a significant redistribution of ‘policy space’ between advanced and emerging economies have taken place in the global economy. We also find that a number of seemingly technical currency swap agreements among EDCs have set in motion changes in the very structure of global trade and finance. These developments do not signify the end of EDCs’ vulnerability towards advanced economies. They signify however that the economic and geoeconomic implications of this vulnerability have changed in ways that constrain the options available to advanced economies and pose new challenges for the post-WWII economic order

The Lao Economy: Capitalizing on Natural Resource Exports

Trade and investment reforms in the Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) since the mid-1980s have boosted natural resource-based exports, underpinning recent economic growth. A high proportion of the proceeds from these exports accrue directly to the government. Over the 8 years preceding 2011, total government revenue increased from 11% to over 19% of gross domestic product, due almost entirely to revenues derived from mining and hydropower. The effect on the Lao people depends on how the government uses these revenues. This paper examines how the Lao PDR's export-led growth can be channeled into directions that deliver the greatest benefit to the Lao people

Failing to pull together : South Africa’s troubled response to COVID-19

Abstract: Purpose – This paper aims to provide a country case study of South Africa’s response during the first six months following its first COVID-19 case. The focus is on the government’s (mis-)management of its nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) (or “lockdown”) to stem the pandemic and the organized business sector’s resistance against the lockdown. Design/methodology/approach – This paper makes use of a literature review and provides descriptive statistics and quantitative analysis of COVID-19 and the lockdown stringency in South Africa, based on data from Google Mobility Trends, Oxford University’s Stringency Index, Johns Hopkins University’s COVID-19 tracker and Our World in Data. Findings – This paper finds that both the government and the business sector’s responses to the COVID-19 pandemic have been problematic. These key actors have been failing to “pull together,” leaving South Africa’s citizens in-between corrupt and incompetent officials on the one hand, and lockdown skeptics on the other. This paper argues that to break through this impasse, the country should change direction by agreeing on a smart or “Goldilocks” lockdown, based on data, testing, decentralization, demographics and appropriate economic support measures, including export support. Such a Goldilocks lockdown is argued, based on available evidence from the emerging scientific literature, to be able to save lives, improve trust in government, limit economic damages and moreover improve the country’s long-term recovery prospects. Research limitations/implications – The pandemic is an unprecedented crisis and moreover was still unfolding at the time of writing. This has two implications. First, precise data on the economic impact and certain epidemiological parameters was not (yet) available. Second, the causes of the mismanagement by the government are not clear yet, within such a short time frame. More research and better data may be able in future to allow conclusions to be drawn whether the problems that were besetting the country’s management of COVID-19 are unique or perhaps part of a more general problem across developing countries. Practical implications – The paper provides clear practical implications for both government and organized business. The South African Government should not altogether end its lockdown measures, but follow a smart and flexible lockdown. The organized business sector should abandon its calls for ending the lockdown while the country is still among the most affected countries in the world, and no vaccine is available. Social implications – There should be better collaboration between government, business and civil society to manage a smart lockdown. Government should re-establish lost trust because of the mismanagement of the lockdown during the first six months of the pandemic

What is the Likely Poverty Impact of the Global Financial Crisis?

Estimates of the poverty impact of the current crisis are becoming numerous and varied. Global estimates of poverty impacts are based on assumptions regarding Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth deceleration and the relationship between GDP growth and poverty. We take a different approach. We ask what do we know from research on the poverty impacts of previous financial crises in developing countries? We review current global estimates on poverty and then draw evidence from nine developing countries that have experienced a crisis episode since the mid?1990s

Deceleration in World Economic Growth and Industrial Development in the Third World

SUMMARY UNCTAD's work in the area of manufactures has been guided by the idea that manufacturing is the engine of autonomous growth and development. Until recently industrialisation proceeded apace in the Third World. But many countries have built up a highly import?dependent industrial structure and have fared badly in the downturn in the world economy since the late 1970s. UNCTAD needs to shift the balance away from the expansion of industrial capacity per se towards the creation of industrial structures with a lower propensity to import. RESUMEN Desaceleración en el crecimiento económico mundial y en el desarrollo industrial del Tercer Mundo El trabajo de la UNCTAD en el campo de los productos manufacturados se ha guiado hasta el momento por la idéa de que los productos manufacturados actúan como motor para un crecimiento y desarrollo autónomos, Hasta hace poco la industrialización en el Tercer Mundo se movía a marcha forzada. Pero muchos países formaron una estructura industrial basada en la importación y salieron perdiendo al bajar la economía mundial en los años 70. La UNCTAD necesita cambiar el énfasis en la expansión de la capacidad industrial para llegar a la creación de estructuras mundiales menos propensas a la importación. RESUMES Ralentissement de la croissance économique mondiale et du développement industriel dans le Tiers Monde Les travaux de CNUCED dans le domaine de l'industrie ont été guidés par l'idée que l'industrialisation est le moteur de la croissance et du développement autonomes. Jusqu'à présent l'industrialisation se développait rapidement dans le Tiers Monde. Mais plusieurs pays ont établi une structure industrielle grandement dépendantes de l'importation et ont beaucoup perdu dans le retournement de l'économie mondiale à la fin des années 70. CNUCED doit déplacer l'équilibre au?delà de l'expansion industrielle en elle — même vers la création de structures industrielles avec une dépendance moindre sur l'importation

Structural Adjustment and Policy Dialogue

SUMMARY This article first looks at the relationship between ‘dialogue’ and ‘conditionality’, the origin of policies about which dialogue is conducted, and the experience of it as practised by donor agencies. It then contrasts the long experience of India with current efforts to re?direct policies in sub?Saharan Africa. Finally, it evaluates six influences on policy dialogue: the coincidence of effective aid and effective dialogue; the risks of excessive leverage during crisis; recipient capacity for policy analysis; the frankness of donors about past errors and about international conditions affecting poor countries; donor coordination; and the economic context of dialogue. SOMMAIRE L'adjustement structurel et le dialogue de politique Cet article examine d'abord la relation entre le ‘dialogue’ et la ‘conditionalité’, l'origine des politiques sur lesquelles le dialogue se conduit, et la pratique des agences donneurs. Ensuite l'article contraste la longue pratique de l'Inde, aux afforts actuels d'une révision des politiques en Afrique sub?saharienne. Pour conclure l'article évalue six facteurs du dialogue effectif; les risques d'un trop grand recours aux forces de levier dans des situations de crise; la capacité du récipient d'analyser des politiques; la franchise des donneurs à propos des fautes comises dans le passé et à propos des conditions internationales touchant les pays pauvres; la coordination entre les donneurs: et le contexte économique du dialogue. RESUMEN Ajuste estructural y diálogo sobre políticas Este artículo examina, en primer lugar, la relación entre ‘diálogo’ y ‘condicionalidad’, el origen de las políticas que orientan el diálogo y la experiencia sobre éste en los términos practicados por las agencias donantes. A continuación, contrasta la larga experiencia de India con los esfuerzos actuales para reorientar políticas en el subsahara africano. Finalmente, evalúa seis elementos que influyen en el diálogo sobre políticas: los riesgos de excesiva flexibilidad en períodos de crisis, capacidad del receptor para analizar políticas, la franqueza de los donantes sobre los errores cometidos y las condiciones internacionales que afectan a los países pobres, coordinación entre donantes y, el contexto económico del diálogo

Why has export diversification been so hard to achieve in Africa?

This paper addresses two research issues to which Chris Milner has contributed: the role of trade policy in economic development, and the particular development case of Mauritius. On the first issue, the focus is on understanding why so few low-income countries, especially in Africa, have achieved a sustained level of export diversification. The paper argues that the standard “Washington Consensus” advice on trade policy placed too much emphasis on liberalisation alone and neglected the important role of government policy, in particular the potential to use targeted input subsidies to support the development of export sectors. Mauritius is then discussed as an example of relatively successful subsidy policies that enabled diversification of exports: indeed the only African country to achieve this in a sustained manner. Subsidies are not advocated as a panacea, and it is recognised that they are not always feasible or effective, but they can be part of an export diversification strategy that supports economic growth