Software defect prediction: do different classifiers find the same defects?

Open Access: This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License CC BY 4.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.During the last 10 years, hundreds of different defect prediction models have been published. The performance of the classifiers used in these models is reported to be similar with models rarely performing above the predictive performance ceiling of about 80% recall. We investigate the individual defects that four classifiers predict and analyse the level of prediction uncertainty produced by these classifiers. We perform a sensitivity analysis to compare the performance of Random Forest, Naïve Bayes, RPart and SVM classifiers when predicting defects in NASA, open source and commercial datasets. The defect predictions that each classifier makes is captured in a confusion matrix and the prediction uncertainty of each classifier is compared. Despite similar predictive performance values for these four classifiers, each detects different sets of defects. Some classifiers are more consistent in predicting defects than others. Our results confirm that a unique subset of defects can be detected by specific classifiers. However, while some classifiers are consistent in the predictions they make, other classifiers vary in their predictions. Given our results, we conclude that classifier ensembles with decision-making strategies not based on majority voting are likely to perform best in defect prediction.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

Genome-wide analysis of ivermectin response by Onchocerca volvulus reveals that genetic drift and soft selective sweeps contribute to loss of drug sensitivity

Treatment of onchocerciasis using mass ivermectin administration has reduced morbidity and transmission throughout Africa and Central/South America. Mass drug administration is likely to exert selection pressure on parasites, and phenotypic and genetic changes in several Onchocerca volvulus populations from Cameroon and Ghana-exposed to more than a decade of regular ivermectin treatment-have raised concern that sub-optimal responses to ivermectin's anti-fecundity effect are becoming more frequent and may spread.Pooled next generation sequencing (Pool-seq) was used to characterise genetic diversity within and between 108 adult female worms differing in ivermectin treatment history and response. Genome-wide analyses revealed genetic variation that significantly differentiated good responder (GR) and sub-optimal responder (SOR) parasites. These variants were not randomly distributed but clustered in ~31 quantitative trait loci (QTLs), with little overlap in putative QTL position and gene content between the two countries. Published candidate ivermectin SOR genes were largely absent in these regions; QTLs differentiating GR and SOR worms were enriched for genes in molecular pathways associated with neurotransmission, development, and stress responses. Finally, single worm genotyping demonstrated that geographic isolation and genetic change over time (in the presence of drug exposure) had a significantly greater role in shaping genetic diversity than the evolution of SOR.This study is one of the first genome-wide association analyses in a parasitic nematode, and provides insight into the genomics of ivermectin response and population structure of O. volvulus. We argue that ivermectin response is a polygenically-determined quantitative trait (QT) whereby identical or related molecular pathways but not necessarily individual genes are likely to determine the extent of ivermectin response in different parasite populations. Furthermore, we propose that genetic drift rather than genetic selection of SOR is the underlying driver of population differentiation, which has significant implications for the emergence and potential spread of SOR within and between these parasite populations

Spitzer phase curve observations and circulation models of the inflated ultra-hot Jupiter WASP-76b

The large radii of many hot Jupiters can only be matched by models that have hot interior adiabats, and recent theoretical work has shown that the interior evolution of hot Jupiters has a significant impact on their atmospheric structure. Due to its inflated radius, low gravity, and ultra-hot equilibrium temperature, WASP-76b is an ideal case study for the impact of internal evolution on observable properties. Hot interiors should most strongly affect the non-irradiated side of the planet, and thus full phase curve observations are critical to ascertain the effect of the interior on the atmospheres of hot Jupiters. In this work, we present the first Spitzer phase curve observations of WASP-76b. We find that WASP-76b has an ultra-hot day side and relatively cold nightside with brightness temperatures of $2471 \pm 27~\mathrm{K}$/$1518 \pm 61~\mathrm{K}$ at 3.6~\micron and $2699 \pm 32~\mathrm{K}$/$1259 \pm 44~\mathrm{K}$ at 4.5~\micron, respectively. These results provide evidence for a dayside thermal inversion. Both channels exhibit small phase offsets of $0.68 \pm 0.48^{\circ}$ at 3.6~\micron and $0.67 \pm 0.2^{\circ}$ at $4.5~\mu\mathrm{m}$. We compare our observations to a suite of general circulation models that consider two end-members of interior temperature along with a broad range of frictional drag strengths. Strong frictional drag is necessary to match the small phase offsets and cold nightside temperatures observed. From our suite of cloud-free GCMs, we find that only cases with a cold interior can reproduce the cold nightsides and large phase curve amplitude at 4.5~\micron, hinting that the hot interior adiabat of WASP-76b does not significantly impact its atmospheric dynamics or that clouds blanket its nightside.Comment: 24 pages, 10 Figures, 5 Tables. Accepted to AJ. Co-First Author

Effect of natalizumab on disease progression in secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (ASCEND). a phase 3, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial with an open-label extension

Background: Although several disease-modifying treatments are available for relapsing multiple sclerosis, treatment effects have been more modest in progressive multiple sclerosis and have been observed particularly in actively relapsing subgroups or those with lesion activity on imaging. We sought to assess whether natalizumab slows disease progression in secondary progressive multiple sclerosis, independent of relapses. Methods: ASCEND was a phase 3, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial (part 1) with an optional 2 year open-label extension (part 2). Enrolled patients aged 18–58 years were natalizumab-naive and had secondary progressive multiple sclerosis for 2 years or more, disability progression unrelated to relapses in the previous year, and Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores of 3·0–6·5. In part 1, patients from 163 sites in 17 countries were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive 300 mg intravenous natalizumab or placebo every 4 weeks for 2 years. Patients were stratified by site and by EDSS score (3·0–5·5 vs 6·0–6·5). Patients completing part 1 could enrol in part 2, in which all patients received natalizumab every 4 weeks until the end of the study. Throughout both parts, patients and staff were masked to the treatment received in part 1. The primary outcome in part 1 was the proportion of patients with sustained disability progression, assessed by one or more of three measures: the EDSS, Timed 25-Foot Walk (T25FW), and 9-Hole Peg Test (9HPT). The primary outcome in part 2 was the incidence of adverse events and serious adverse events. Efficacy and safety analyses were done in the intention-to-treat population. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01416181. Findings: Between Sept 13, 2011, and July 16, 2015, 889 patients were randomly assigned (n=440 to the natalizumab group, n=449 to the placebo group). In part 1, 195 (44%) of 439 natalizumab-treated patients and 214 (48%) of 448 placebo-treated patients had confirmed disability progression (odds ratio [OR] 0·86; 95% CI 0·66–1·13; p=0·287). No treatment effect was observed on the EDSS (OR 1·06, 95% CI 0·74–1·53; nominal p=0·753) or the T25FW (0·98, 0·74–1·30; nominal p=0·914) components of the primary outcome. However, natalizumab treatment reduced 9HPT progression (OR 0·56, 95% CI 0·40–0·80; nominal p=0·001). In part 1, 100 (22%) placebo-treated and 90 (20%) natalizumab-treated patients had serious adverse events. In part 2, 291 natalizumab-continuing patients and 274 natalizumab-naive patients received natalizumab (median follow-up 160 weeks [range 108–221]). Serious adverse events occurred in 39 (13%) patients continuing natalizumab and in 24 (9%) patients initiating natalizumab. Two deaths occurred in part 1, neither of which was considered related to study treatment. No progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy occurred. Interpretation: Natalizumab treatment for secondary progressive multiple sclerosis did not reduce progression on the primary multicomponent disability endpoint in part 1, but it did reduce progression on its upper-limb component. Longer-term trials are needed to assess whether treatment of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis might produce benefits on additional disability components. Funding: Biogen

Perceived Devaluation and STI Testing Uptake among a Cohort of Street-involved Youth in a Canadian Setting

Perceived devaluation has been shown to have adverse effects on the mental and physical health outcomes of people who use drugs. However, the impact of perceived devaluation on sexually transmitted infections (STI) testing uptake among street-involved youth, who face multiple and intersecting stigmas due to their association with drug use and risky sexual practices, has not been fully characterized. Data were obtained between December 2013 and November 2014 from a cohort of street-involved youth who use illicit drugs aged 14–26 in Vancouver, British Columbia. Multivariable generalized estimating equations were constructed to assess the independent relationship between perceived devaluation and STI testing uptake. Among 300 street-involved youth, 87.0% reported a high perceived devaluation score at baseline. In the multivariable analysis, high perceived devaluation was negatively associated with STI testing uptake after adjustment for potential confounders (Adjusted Odds Ratio = 0.38, 95% Confidence Interval 0.15–0.98). Perceived devaluation was high among street-involved youth in our sample and appears to have adverse effects on STI testing uptake. HIV prevention and care programs should be examined and improved to better meet the special needs of street-involved youth in non-stigmatizing ways

Sound can improve visual search in developmental dyslexia

We examined whether developmental dyslexic adults suffer from sluggish attentional shifting (SAS; Hari and Renvall in Trends Cogn Sci 5:525–532, 2001) by measuring their shifting of attention in a visual search task with dynamic cluttered displays (Van der Burg et al. in J Exp Psychol Human 34:1053–1065, 2008). Dyslexics were generally slower than normal readers in searching a horizontal or vertical target among oblique distracters. However, the addition of a click sound presented in synchrony with a color change of the target drastically improved their performance up to the level of the normal readers. These results are in line with the idea that developmental dyslexics have specific problems in disengaging attention from the current fixation, and that the phasic alerting by a sound can compensate for this deficit

Chemo-radiation with or without mandatory split in anal carcinoma: experiences of two institutions and review of the literature

BACKGROUND: The split-course schedule of chemo-radiation for anal cancer is controversial. METHODS: Eighty-four patients with invasive anal cancer treated with definitive external beam radiotherapy (RT) with a mandatory split of 12 days (52 patients, Montreal, Canada) or without an intended split (32 patients, Zurich, Switzerland) were reviewed. Total RT doses were 52 Gy (Montreal) or 59.4 Gy (Zurich) given concurrently with 5-FU/MMC. RESULTS: After a mean follow-up of 40 +/- 27 months, overall survival and local tumor control at 5 years were 57% and 78% (Zurich) compared to 67% and 82% (Montreal), respectively. Split duration of patients with or without local relapse was 15 +/- 7 d vs. 14 +/- 7 d (Montreal, NS) and 11 +/- 11 d vs. 5 +/- 7 d (Zurich; P or = 7 d) had impaired cancer-specific survival compared with patients with only minor interruption (<7 d) (P = 0.06). Bowel toxicity was associated with prolonged RT (P = 0.03) duration as well as increased relapse probability (P = 0.05). Skin toxicity correlated with institution and was found in 79% (Montreal) and 28% (Zurich) (P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: The study design did not allow demonstrating a clear difference in efficacy between the treatment regimens with or without short mandatory split. Cause-specific outcome appears to be impaired by unplanned prolonged interruption

Development and content validity of a patient reported outcomes measure to assess symptoms of major depressive disorder

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Although many symptoms of Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) are assessed through patient-report, there are currently no patient-reported outcome (PRO) instruments that incorporate documented evidence of patient input in PRO instrument development. A review of existing PROs used in MDD suggested the need to conduct qualitative research with patients with MDD to better understand their experience of MDD and develop an evaluative instrument with content validity. The aim of this study was to develop a disease-specific questionnaire to assess symptoms important and relevant to adult MDD patients.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The questionnaire development involved qualitative interviews for concept elicitation, instrument development, and cognitive interviews to support content validity. For concept elicitation, ten MDD severity-specific focus group interviews with thirty-eight patients having clinician-confirmed diagnoses of MDD were conducted in January 2009. A semi-structured discussion guide was used to elicit patients' spontaneous descriptions of MDD symptoms. Verbatim transcripts of focus groups were coded and analyzed to develop a conceptual framework to describe MDD. A PRO instrument was developed by operationalizing concepts elicited in the conceptual framework. Cognitive interviews were carried out in patients (n = 20) to refine and test the content validity of the instrument in terms of item relevance and comprehension, instructions, recall period, and response categories.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Concept elicitation focus groups identified thirty-five unique concepts falling into several domains: i) emotional, ii) cognitive, iii) motivation, iv) work, v) sleep, vi) appetite, vii) social, viii) activities of daily living, ix) tired/fatigue, x) body pain, and xi) suicidality. Concept saturation, the point at which no new relevant information emerges in later interviews, was achieved for each of the concepts. Based on the qualitative findings, the PRO instrument developed had 15 daily and 20 weekly items. The cognitive interviews confirmed that the instructions, item content, and response scales were understood by the patients.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Rigorous qualitative research resulted in the development of a PRO measure for MDD with supported content validity. The MDD PRO can assist in understanding and assessing MDD symptoms from patients' perspectives as well as evaluating treatment benefit of new targeted therapies.</p

From where did the 2009 'swine-origin' influenza A virus (H1N1) emerge?

The swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) virus that appeared in 2009 and was first found in human beings in Mexico, is a reassortant with at least three parents. Six of the genes are closest in sequence to those of H1N2 'triple-reassortant' influenza viruses isolated from pigs in North America around 1999-2000. Its other two genes are from different Eurasian 'avian-like' viruses of pigs; the NA gene is closest to H1N1 viruses isolated in Europe in 1991-1993, and the MP gene is closest to H3N2 viruses isolated in Asia in 1999-2000. The sequences of these genes do not directly reveal the immediate source of the virus as the closest were from isolates collected more than a decade before the human pandemic started. The three parents of the virus may have been assembled in one place by natural means, such as by migrating birds, however the consistent link with pig viruses suggests that human activity was involved. We discuss a published suggestion that unsampled pig herds, the intercontinental live pig trade, together with porous quarantine barriers, generated the reassortant. We contrast that suggestion with the possibility that laboratory errors involving the sharing of virus isolates and cultured cells, or perhaps vaccine production, may have been involved. Gene sequences from isolates that bridge the time and phylogenetic gap between the new virus and its parents will distinguish between these possibilities, and we suggest where they should be sought. It is important that the source of the new virus be found if we wish to avoid future pandemics rather than just trying to minimize the consequences after they have emerged. Influenza virus is a very significant zoonotic pathogen. Public confidence in influenza research, and the agribusinesses that are based on influenza's many hosts, has been eroded by several recent events involving the virus. Measures that might restore confidence include establishing a unified international administrative framework coordinating surveillance, research and commercial work with this virus, and maintaining a registry of all influenza isolates