Functional traits predict relationship between plant abundance dynamic and long-term climate warming.

Predicting climate change impact on ecosystem structure and services is one of the most important challenges in ecology. Until now, plant species response to climate change has been described at the level of fixed plant functional types, an approach limited by its inflexibility as there is much interspecific functional variation within plant functional types. Considering a plant species as a set of functional traits greatly increases our possibilities for analysis of ecosystem functioning and carbon and nutrient fluxes associated therewith. Moreover, recently assembled large-scale databases hold comprehensive per-species data on plant functional traits, allowing a detailed functional description of many plant communities on Earth. Here, we show that plant functional traits can be used as predictors of vegetation response to climate warming, accounting in our test ecosystem (the species-rich alpine belt of Caucasus mountains, Russia) for 59% of variability in the per-species abundance relation to temperature. In this mountain belt, traits that promote conservative leaf water economy (higher leaf mass per area, thicker leaves) and large investments in belowground reserves to support next year's shoot buds (root carbon content) were the best predictors of the species increase in abundance along with temperature increase. This finding demonstrates that plant functional traits constitute a highly useful concept for forecasting changes in plant communities, and their associated ecosystem services, in response to climate change

Global to community scale differences in the prevalence of convergent over divergent leaf trait distributions in plan asssemblages.

Aim The drivers of species assembly, by limiting the possible range of functional trait values, can lead to either convergent or divergent distributions of traits in realized assemblages. Here, to evaluate the strengths of these species assembly drivers, we partition trait variance across global, regional and community scales. We then test the hypothesis that, from global to community scales, the outcome of co-occurring trait convergence and divergence is highly variable across biomes and communities. Location Global: nine biomes ranging from subarctic highland to tropical rain forest. Methods We analysed functional trait diversity at progressively finer spatial scales using a global, balanced, hierarchically structured dataset from 9 biomes, 58 communities and 652 species. Analyses were based on two key leaf traits (foliar nitrogen content and specific leaf area) that are known to drive biogeochemical cycling. Results While 35% of the global variance in these traits was between biomes, only 15% was between communities within biomes and as much as 50% occurred within communities. Despite this relatively high within-community variance in trait values, we found that trait convergence dominated over divergence at both global and regional scales through comparisons of functional trait diversity in regional and community assemblages against random (null) models of species assembly. Main conclusions We demonstrate that the convergence of traits occurring from global to regional assemblages can be twice as strong as that from regional to community assemblages, and argue that large differences in the nature and strength of abiotic and biotic drivers of dominant species assembly can, at least partly, explain the variable outcome of simultaneous trait convergence and divergence across sites. Ultimately, these findings stress the urgent need to extend species assembly research to address those scales where trait variance is the highest, i.e. between biomes and within communities. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd