Unusual rainfall shift during monsoon period of 2010 in Pakistan: Flash flooding in Northern Pakistan and riverine flooding in Southern Pakistan

Floods due to “blocking event” in the jet stream during 2010 caused intense rainfall and flash floods in northern Pakistan which resulted to riverine flooding in southern Pakistan. In the beginning of July 2010, changes in summer monsoon rainfall patterns caused the most severe flooding in Pakistan history. Process control charts suggest that monsoon pattern was not normal which made one-fifth of the country to be inundated. In this study, our main concern was to check the upward shifts (floods) in the rainfall pattern of all provinces of Pakistan. Results indicate that there was significant and sudden shift in the rainfall pattern of monsoon in 2010 which might be due to prolong “blocking event” in the jet stream. In late July, rainwater from the highlands entered major rivers which affected nearby areas of the Indus River. More than 250 mm of rain fell over a 36-h period in late July. Abeyant policies by the Pakistan Irrigation Department (PID) caused destruction in Jacobabad which was not a normal Indus waterway. The first week of August marked the worst week of extreme flooding in southern Pakistan. Flood simulation overylay technique showed the affected areas of the country in comparison with normal waterways by using vector and raster data images.Key words: Indus River, monsoon, flooding in 2010, rainfall pattern, Climate Change, Floods

Prevalence and phase variable expression status of two autotransporters, NalP and MspA, in carriage and disease isolates of Neisseria meningitidis.

Neisseria meningitidis is a human nasopharyngeal commensal capable of causing life-threatening septicemia and meningitis. Many meningococcal surface structures, including the autotransporter proteins NalP and MspA, are subject to phase variation (PV) due to the presence of homopolymeric tracts within their coding sequences. The functions of MspA are unknown. NalP proteolytically cleaves several surface-located virulence factors including the 4CMenB antigen NhbA. Therefore, NalP is a phase-variable regulator of the meningococcal outer membrane and secretome whose expression may reduce isolate susceptibility to 4CMenB-induced immune responses. To improve our understanding of the contributions of MspA and NalP to meningococcal-host interactions, their distribution and phase-variable expression status was studied in epidemiologically relevant samples, including 127 carriage and 514 invasive isolates representative of multiple clonal complexes and serogroups. Prevalence estimates of >98% and >88% were obtained for mspA and nalP, respectively, with no significant differences in their frequencies in disease versus carriage isolates. 16% of serogroup B (MenB) invasive isolates, predominately from clonal complexes ST-269 and ST-461, lacked nalP. Deletion of nalP often resulted from recombination events between flanking repetitive elements. PolyC tract lengths ranged from 6-15 bp in nalP and 6-14 bp in mspA. In an examination of PV status, 58.8% of carriage, and 40.1% of invasive nalP-positive MenB isolates were nalP phase ON. The frequency of this phenotype was not significantly different in serogroup Y (MenY) carriage strains, but was significantly higher in invasive MenY strains (86.3%; p<0.0001). Approximately 90% of MenB carriage and invasive isolates were mspA phase ON; significantly more than MenY carriage (32.7%) or invasive (13.7%) isolates. This differential expression resulted from different mode mspA tract lengths between the serogroups. Our data indicates a differential requirement for NalP and MspA expression in MenB and MenY strains and is a step towards understanding the contributions of phase-variable loci to meningococcal biology

Structural analysis of haemoglobin binding by HpuA from the Neisseriaceae family

The Neisseriaceae family of bacteria causes a range of diseases including meningitis, septicaemia, gonorrhoea and endocarditis, and extracts haem from haemoglobin as an important iron source within the iron-limited environment of its human host. Herein we report crystal structures of apo- and haemoglobin-bound HpuA, an essential component of this haem import system. The interface involves long loops on the bacterial receptor that present hydrophobic side chains for packing against the surface of haemoglobin. Interestingly, our structural and biochemical analyses of Kingella denitrificans and Neisseria gonorrhoeae HpuA mutants, although validating the interactions observed in the crystal structure, show how Neisseriaceae have the fascinating ability to diversify functional sequences and yet retain the haemoglobin binding function. Our results present the first description of HpuA’s role in direct binding of haemoglobin

Patterns of adiposity, vascular phenotypes and cognitive function in the 1946 British Birth Cohort.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between long-term exposure to whole body or central obesity and cognitive function, as well as its potential determinants, remain controversial. In this study, we assessed (1) the potential impact of 30 years exposure to different patterns of whole body and central adiposity on cognitive function at 60-64 years, (2) whether trajectories of central adiposity can provide additional information on later cognitive function compared to trajectories of whole body adiposity, and (3) the influence of vascular phenotypes on these associations. METHODS: The study included 1249 participants from the prospective cohort MRC National Survey of Health and Development. Body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), and vascular (carotid intima-media thickness, carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity) and cognitive function (memory, processing speed, reaction time) data, at 60-64 years, were used to assess the associations between different patterns of adult WC or BMI (from 36 years of age) and late midlife cognitive performance, as well as the proportion of this association explained by cardiovascular phenotypes. RESULTS: Longer exposure to elevated WC was related to lower memory performance (p < 0.001 for both) and longer choice reaction time (p = 0.003). A faster gain of WC between 36 and 43 years of age was associated with the largest change in reaction time and memory test (P < 0.05 for all). Similar associations were observed when patterns of WC were substituted with patterns of BMI, but when WC and BMI were included in the same model, only patterns of WC remained significantly associated with cognitive function. Participants who dropped one BMI category and maintained a lower BMI had similar memory performance to those of normal weight during the whole follow-up. Conversely, those who dropped and subsequently regained one BMI category had a memory function similar to those with 30 years exposure to elevated BMI. Adjustment for vascular phenotypes, levels of cardiovascular risk factors, physical activity, education, childhood cognition and socioeconomic position did not affect these associations. CONCLUSIONS: Longer exposure to elevated WC or BMI and faster WC or BMI gains between 36 and 43 years are related to lower cognitive function at 60-64 years. Patterns of WC in adulthood could provide additional information in predicting late midlife cognitive function than patterns of BMI. The acquisition of an adverse cardiovascular phenotype associated with adiposity is unlikely to account for these relationships

Anemia prevalence in women of reproductive age in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2018

Anemia is a globally widespread condition in women and is associated with reduced economic productivity and increased mortality worldwide. Here we map annual 2000–2018 geospatial estimates of anemia prevalence in women of reproductive age (15–49 years) across 82 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), stratify anemia by severity and aggregate results to policy-relevant administrative and national levels. Additionally, we provide subnational disparity analyses to provide a comprehensive overview of anemia prevalence inequalities within these countries and predict progress toward the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target (WHO GNT) to reduce anemia by half by 2030. Our results demonstrate widespread moderate improvements in overall anemia prevalence but identify only three LMICs with a high probability of achieving the WHO GNT by 2030 at a national scale, and no LMIC is expected to achieve the target in all their subnational administrative units. Our maps show where large within-country disparities occur, as well as areas likely to fall short of the WHO GNT, offering precision public health tools so that adequate resource allocation and subsequent interventions can be targeted to the most vulnerable populations

Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

© 2020 Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Background: Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages. Methods: Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0–100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC effective coverage performance on the basis of pooled health spending per capita, representing UHC effective coverage index levels achieved in 2019 relative to country-level government health spending, prepaid private expenditures, and development assistance for health. To assess current trajectories towards the GPW13 UHC billion target—1 billion more people benefiting from UHC by 2023—we estimated additional population equivalents with UHC effective coverage from 2018 to 2023. Findings: Globally, performance on the UHC effective coverage index improved from 45·8 (95% uncertainty interval 44·2–47·5) in 1990 to 60·3 (58·7–61·9) in 2019, yet country-level UHC effective coverage in 2019 still spanned from 95 or higher in Japan and Iceland to lower than 25 in Somalia and the Central African Republic. Since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa showed accelerated gains on the UHC effective coverage index (at an average increase of 2·6% [1·9–3·3] per year up to 2019); by contrast, most other GBD super-regions had slowed rates of progress in 2010–2019 relative to 1990–2010. Many countries showed lagging performance on effective coverage indicators for non-communicable diseases relative to those for communicable diseases and maternal and child health, despite non-communicable diseases accounting for a greater proportion of potential health gains in 2019, suggesting that many health systems are not keeping pace with the rising non-communicable disease burden and associated population health needs. In 2019, the UHC effective coverage index was associated with pooled health spending per capita (r=0·79), although countries across the development spectrum had much lower UHC effective coverage than is potentially achievable relative to their health spending. Under maximum efficiency of translating health spending into UHC effective coverage performance, countries would need to reach $1398 pooled health spending per capita (US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity) in order to achieve 80 on the UHC effective coverage index. From 2018 to 2023, an estimated 388·9 million (358·6–421·3) more population equivalents would have UHC effective coverage, falling well short of the GPW13 target of 1 billion more people benefiting from UHC during this time. Current projections point to an estimated 3·1 billion (3·0–3·2) population equivalents still lacking UHC effective coverage in 2023, with nearly a third (968·1 million [903·5–1040·3]) residing in south Asia. Interpretation: The present study demonstrates the utility of measuring effective coverage and its role in supporting improved health outcomes for all people—the ultimate goal of UHC and its achievement. Global ambitions to accelerate progress on UHC service coverage are increasingly unlikely unless concerted action on non-communicable diseases occurs and countries can better translate health spending into improved performance. Focusing on effective coverage and accounting for the world's evolving health needs lays the groundwork for better understanding how close—or how far—all populations are in benefiting from UHC. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global injury morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2017: Results from the global burden of disease study 2017

Background Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries. methods We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Findings In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505). Interpretation Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care

Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017

A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experience both undernutrition and overweight. Here, we show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units. Wasting decreased overall across LMICs between 2000 and 2017, from 8.4% (62.3 (55.1–70.8) million) to 6.4% (58.3 (47.6–70.7) million), but is predicted to remain above the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target of <5% in over half of LMICs by 2025. Prevalence of overweight increased from 5.2% (30 (22.8–38.5) million) in 2000 to 6.0% (55.5 (44.8–67.9) million) children aged under 5 years in 2017. Areas most affected by double burden of malnutrition were located in Indonesia, Thailand, southeastern China, Botswana, Cameroon and central Nigeria. Our estimates provide a new perspective to researchers, policy makers and public health agencies in their efforts to address this global childhood syndemic

Estimating global injuries morbidity and mortality : methods and data used in the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study

Background: While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria. Methods: In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced. Results: GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes. Conclusions: GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future

Measuring routine childhood vaccination coverage in 204 countries and territories, 1980-2019 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020, Release 1

Background Measuring routine childhood vaccination is crucial to inform global vaccine policies and programme implementation, and to track progress towards targets set by the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) and Immunization Agenda 2030. Robust estimates of routine vaccine coverage are needed to identify past successes and persistent vulnerabilities. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020, Release 1, we did a systematic analysis of global, regional, and national vaccine coverage trends using a statistical framework, by vaccine and over time. Methods For this analysis we collated 55 326 country-specific, cohort-specific, year-specific, vaccine-specific, and dosespecific observations of routine childhood vaccination coverage between 1980 and 2019. Using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, we produced location-specific and year-specific estimates of 11 routine childhood vaccine coverage indicators for 204 countries and territories from 1980 to 2019, adjusting for biases in countryreported data and reflecting reported stockouts and supply disruptions. We analysed global and regional trends in coverage and numbers of zero-dose children (defined as those who never received a diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis [DTP] vaccine dose), progress towards GVAP targets, and the relationship between vaccine coverage and sociodemographic development. Findings By 2019, global coverage of third-dose DTP (DTP3; 81.6% [95% uncertainty interval 80.4-82 .7]) more than doubled from levels estimated in 1980 (39.9% [37.5-42.1]), as did global coverage of the first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1; from 38.5% [35.4-41.3] in 1980 to 83.6% [82.3-84.8] in 2019). Third- dose polio vaccine (Pol3) coverage also increased, from 42.6% (41.4-44.1) in 1980 to 79.8% (78.4-81.1) in 2019, and global coverage of newer vaccines increased rapidly between 2000 and 2019. The global number of zero-dose children fell by nearly 75% between 1980 and 2019, from 56.8 million (52.6-60. 9) to 14.5 million (13.4-15.9). However, over the past decade, global vaccine coverage broadly plateaued; 94 countries and territories recorded decreasing DTP3 coverage since 2010. Only 11 countries and territories were estimated to have reached the national GVAP target of at least 90% coverage for all assessed vaccines in 2019. Interpretation After achieving large gains in childhood vaccine coverage worldwide, in much of the world this progress was stalled or reversed from 2010 to 2019. These findings underscore the importance of revisiting routine immunisation strategies and programmatic approaches, recentring service delivery around equity and underserved populations. Strengthening vaccine data and monitoring systems is crucial to these pursuits, now and through to 2030, to ensure that all children have access to, and can benefit from, lifesaving vaccines. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe