The 2004 election in Spain : terrorism, accountability, and voting

In this paper the electoral consequences of the Islamist terrorist attacks on March 11, 2004 are analysed. According to a quantitative analysis based on a post-electoral survey, we show the causal mechanisms that transform voters' reactions to the bombings into a particular electoral behaviour and estimate their relevance in the electoral results on March 14, 200

Determinants of sub-central European government debt

[EN] The aim of this paper is to analyse the determinants of sub-central government debt in Europe (Italy, France, Austria, Germany, Belgium and Spain) through estimation for each State based on corresponding panel data from 1996 to 2010. Furthermore, we estimate the debt model using a joint sample, consolidating conclusions on the most influential variables in terms of public debt. A comparative analysis of institutional frameworks in Europe shows that relationships between central and sub-central tax authorities have common traits, although the extent of change in each country remains unknown. In sum, this study shows that sub-sovereign government budgets are counter-cyclical, that economies of scale are present, which the golden rule of public finance is followed, that population growth and lower per capita financing lead to higher debt levels, and that regions characterised by higher debt/GDP ratios tend to have lower future deficits.Jannone Bellot, N.; Martí Selva, ML.; García Menéndez, L. (2017). Determinants of sub-central European government debt. The Spanish Review of Financial Economics. 15(2):52-62. doi:10.1016/j.srfe.2017.04.001S526215

Variations of training load, monotony, and strain and dose-response relationships with maximal aerobic speed, maximal oxygen uptake, and isokinetic strength in professional soccer players

This study aimed to identify variations in weekly training load, training monotony, and training strain across a 10-week period (during both, pre- and in-season phases); and to analyze the dose-response relationships between training markers and maximal aerobic speed (MAS), maximal oxygen uptake, and isokinetic strength. Twenty-seven professional soccer players (24.9±3.5 years old) were monitored across the 10-week period using global positioning system units. Players were also tested for maximal aerobic speed, maximal oxygen uptake, and isokinetic strength before and after 10 weeks of training. Large positive correlations were found between sum of training load and extension peak torque in the right lower limb (r = 0.57, 90%CI[0.15;0.82]) and the ratio agonist/antagonist in the right lower limb (r = 0.51, [0.06;0.78]). It was observed that loading measures fluctuated across the period of the study and that the load was meaningfully associated with changes in the fitness status of players. However, those magnitudes of correlations were small-to-large, suggesting that variations in fitness level cannot be exclusively explained by the accumulated load and loading profile

Cheating in Europe: underreporting of self-employment income in comparative perspective

Various national studies have used the expenditure method (Pissarides and Weber in J Public Econ 39(1):17–32, 1989) to estimate income underreporting by the self-employed relative to the wage earners. Within Europe, the studies mostly consider the UK or individual Nordic countries, while no data are available for most Southern European and Eastern European countries. This paper is the first to apply the expenditure method to a large number of EU countries using harmonised microdata and a common model specification to enhance cross-country comparability. We extend the number of countries studied using the expenditure method and contribute to the scarce comparative literature on tax non-compliance in general. Our estimates show substantial variation in income underreporting across countries, from under 10% to more than 40% of self-employed household income on average. The shares of underreporting do not appear to be related to the development level of the countries

To pay or not to pay? Business owners’ tax morale:testing a neo-institutional framework in a transition environment

In order to understand how the environment influences business owner/managers’ attitudes towards tax morale, we build a theoretical model based on a neo-institutionalist framework. Our model combines three complementary perspectives on institutions—normative, cultural–cognitive and regulatory–instrumental. This enables a broader understanding of factors that influence business owner–managers’ attitudes towards tax evasion. We test the resulting hypotheses using regression analysis on survey data on business owner/managers in Latvia—a transition country, which has undergone massive institutional changes since it was part of the Soviet Union over 25 years ago. We find that legitimacy of the tax authorities and the government (normative dimension), feeling of belonging to the nation (cultural–cognitive dimension) and perceptions of the risk and severity of punishment (regulatory–instrumental dimension) are all associated with higher tax morale for business owners and managers

‘Sacrifical lambs’ or candidate mimicking?: gender-based nomination strategies in elections

Data de publicació electrónica: 17-03-2021This paper explores an alternative mechanism for understanding the drivers of the nomination of women for elective office in single-member electoral systems. Previous research has generally examined two sources of gender-based politics: party ideology, with leftist parties being more female-friendly than rightist parties, and the strategic nomination of candidates depending on whether the party is expected to win or lose in the district, with women more likely to be used as ‘sacrificial lambs’ in hopeless contests. We argue that the nomination of male and female candidates across districts reflects an interdependence of party strategies – in particular, the actions of the main opposition party. We hypothesise that when the trailing party is not committed to gender equality, its equilibrium strategy in a given district is the nomination of a candidate of the same gender as that of the front-running party. Secondary data from 1,017 single-member Australian districts and more than 2,000 candidates from 2001–2019 confirm our hypothesis.We acknowledge support from the Australian Research Council Discovery Project [Grant Number: DP190101978], the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness [Grant number: CSO2017-85024-C2-1-P (AEI/FEDER)], and ICREA, under the ICREA Academia programme

The short-term effects of electoral reforms

Data de publicació electrònica: 20 de juny de 2022While electoral reforms clearly affect how seats are (re)distributed among parties immediately after their adoption, they do not significantly change the (re)distribution of votes among parties. As political knowledge is positively related to turnout, we argue that the effect of majoritarian electoral reforms on the number of parties is contingent upon the turnout in the last election prior to the reform. Specifically, the lower the turnout level in the previous election, the more effective the majoritarian reform will be. However, the psychological effect of proportional reforms relies on the interplay between elites and voters and is highly uncertain. The argument is tested using aggregated data from 43 major electoral reforms worldwide from 1945 to 2020 and individual data from the first election held in New Zealand after the 1993 electoral reform