Ethnic Differences in Leaving Home: Timing and Pathways

The dynamics of leaving home for youth from migrant families in the Netherlands are examined using individual administrative data on the 1977 and 1983 birth cohorts for the period 1999–2004. A competing-risks approach is applied to distinguish leaving home for union formation, to live independently, and to share with others. Migrant youth, and particularly Turkish and Moroccan youth, leave home at a significantly younger age than Dutch youth, given the relevant background variables. This is remarkable, given the older ages at which young people in the origin countries leave the parental home. The result may be seen as evidence of how the potential effects of cultural norms are counter-affected by other factors, such as the facilities of the welfare state and the awkward position of migrant youth between two cultures. Considering the pathways out of home, the analysis largely confirms the expected pattern: Turkish and Moroccan youth leave home more often for union formation and particularly marriage, while this pathway is of minor importance for Dutch youth at early ages

Uncertainty and Narratives of the Future. A Theoretical Framework for Contemporary Fertility

Explanations for fertility decisions based on structural constraints—such as labor, housing condition, or income—do not account for the contemporary fertility downturn faced by many countries in Europe. In this paper, we posit that the rise of uncertainty is central for understanding contemporary fertility dynamics. We propose a theoretical framework (the Narrative Framework) for the study of fertility decisions under uncertain conditions based on expectations, imaginaries and narratives. Relying on the idea of future–oriented action, we argue that uncertainty needs to be conceptualized and operationalized taking into account that people use works of imagination, producing their own narrative of the future. Narratives of the future are potent driving forces helping people to act according to or despite uncertainty. We present the different elements of the Narrative Framework and address its causal validity. We conclude by highlighting the advantages of taking into account the narratives of the future in fertility research

Estimating the Impact of the Recent Economic Crisis on Work Time in Turkey

This paper provides estimates of the impact of the recent economic crisis on paid and unpaid work time in Turkey. The data used in this study come from the first and only time-use survey available at the national level. Infrequency of collection of time-use data in Turkey does not allow us to make a direct comparison of pre-versus postcrisis time-use patterns. We introduce a tractable way for estimating these possible effects by measuring the impact of an increase in unemployment risk on time-use patterns of women and men living in couple households. The method developed here can be applied to other developing-country cases where there is a lack of longitudinal data availability. Our findings support the argument that economic crises reinforce the preexisting gender inequalities in work time

Microbial and Chemical Characterization of Underwater Fresh Water Springs in the Dead Sea

Due to its extreme salinity and high Mg concentration the Dead Sea is characterized by a very low density of cells most of which are Archaea. We discovered several underwater fresh to brackish water springs in the Dead Sea harboring dense microbial communities. We provide the first characterization of these communities, discuss their possible origin, hydrochemical environment, energetic resources and the putative biogeochemical pathways they are mediating. Pyrosequencing of the 16S rRNA gene and community fingerprinting methods showed that the spring community originates from the Dead Sea sediments and not from the aquifer. Furthermore, it suggested that there is a dense Archaeal community in the shoreline pore water of the lake. Sequences of bacterial sulfate reducers, nitrifiers iron oxidizers and iron reducers were identified as well. Analysis of white and green biofilms suggested that sulfide oxidation through chemolitotrophy and phototrophy is highly significant. Hyperspectral analysis showed a tight association between abundant green sulfur bacteria and cyanobacteria in the green biofilms. Together, our findings show that the Dead Sea floor harbors diverse microbial communities, part of which is not known from other hypersaline environments. Analysis of the water’s chemistry shows evidence of microbial activity along the path and suggests that the springs supply nitrogen, phosphorus and organic matter to the microbial communities in the Dead Sea. The underwater springs are a newly recognized water source for the Dead Sea. Their input of microorganisms and nutrients needs to be considered in the assessment of possible impact of dilution events of the lake surface waters, such as those that will occur in the future due to the intended establishment of the Red Sea−Dead Sea water conduit

A Reflection on Economic Uncertainty and Fertility in Europe: The Narrative Framework

none5openVignoli, Daniele; Guetto, Raffaele; Bazzani, Giacomo; Pirani, Elena; Minello, AlessandraVignoli, Daniele; Guetto, Raffaele; Bazzani, Giacomo; Pirani, Elena; Minello, Alessandr

Sequence History Analysis (SHA) : Estimating the Effect of Past Trajectories on an Upcoming Event

In this article, we propose an innovative method which is a combination of Sequences Analysis and Event History Analysis. We called this method Sequence History Analysis (SHA). We start by identifying typical past trajectories of individuals over time by using Sequence Analysis. We then estimate the effect of these typical past trajectories on the event under study using discrete-time models. The aim of this approach is to estimate the effect of past trajectories on the chances of experiencing an event. We apply the proposed methodological approach to an original study of the effect of past childhood co-residence structures on the chances of leaving the parental home in Switzerland. The empirical research was based on the LIVES Cohort study, a panel survey that started in autumn 2013 in Switzerland. Analyses show that it is not only the occurrence of an event that increases the risk of experiencing another event, but also the order in which various states occurred. What is more, it seems that two features have a significant influence on departure from the parental home: the co-residence structures and the arrival or departure of siblings from the parental home