13 research outputs found
Methodologies of Analyzing Inter-Regional Income Inequality and Their Applications to Russia
The Euro Goes East Implications of the 2000-2002 Economic Slowdown for Synchronisation of Business Cycles between the Euro Area and CEECs
Empirical Analysis of Business Cycle Synchronization and Shock Similarity Between Romania and the Eurozone
A Meta-Analysis of Business Cycle Correlation between the Euro Area and CEECs: What Do We Know - and Who Cares?
The Euro goes East: Implications of the 2000–2002 Economic Slowdown for Synchronisation of Business Cycles between the Euro area and CEECs
We assess the correlation of supply and demand shocks between current countries in the euro area and European Union (EU) accession candidates from 1993/1995 to 2002. Supply and demand shocks are recovered from estimated structural vector autoregressive models of output growth and inflation. Notably, the economic slowdown between 2000 and 2002 increased heterogeneity of business cycles between the euro area and acceding counties. We find that several acceding countries have a quite high correlation of underlying shocks with the euro area and conclude that continuing integration within the EU is likely to align the business cycles of these countries in a manner similar to the synchronisation of supply and demand shocks that we document for the EU in the 1990s. Comparative Economic Studies (2004) 46, 45–62. doi:10.1057/palgrave.ces.8100040