Combining qualitative and quantitative understanding for exploring cross-sectoral climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability in Europe

Climate change will affect all sectors of society and the environment at all scales, ranging from the continental to the national and local. Decision-makers and other interested citizens need to be able to access reliable science-based information to help them respond to the risks of climate change impacts and assess opportunities for adaptation. Participatory integrated assessment (IA) tools combine knowledge from diverse scientific disciplines, take account of the value and importance of stakeholder ‘lay insight’ and facilitate a two-way iterative process of exploration of ‘what if’s’ to enable decision-makers to test ideas and improve their understanding of the complex issues surrounding adaptation to climate change. This paper describes the conceptual design of a participatory IA tool, the CLIMSAVE IA Platform, based on a professionally facilitated stakeholder engagement process. The CLIMSAVE (climate change integrated methodology for cross-sectoral adaptation and vulnerability in Europe) Platform is a user-friendly, interactive web-based tool that allows stakeholders to assess climate change impacts and vulnerabilities for a range of sectors, including agriculture, forests, biodiversity, coasts, water resources and urban development. The linking of models for the different sectors enables stakeholders to see how their interactions could affect European landscape change. The relationship between choice, uncertainty and constraints is a key cross-cutting theme in the conduct of past participatory IA. Integrating scenario development processes with an interactive modelling platform is shown to allow the exploration of future uncertainty as a structural feature of such complex problems, encouraging stakeholders to explore adaptation choices within real-world constraints of future resource availability and environmental and institutional capacities, rather than seeking the ‘right’ answers

Modelling the spatial distribution of agricultural land use at the regional scale

Agriculture is the most important land use in Europe in geographic terms and because of this it plays a central role in the quality of the wider environment. Whilst the spatial patterns of agricultural land use have changed considerably in recent times, further changes are likely as a result of the influences of policy reform, socio-economics and climate change. Understanding, therefore, how agricultural land use might respond to global environmental change drivers is a research question of considerable importance. The first step, however, in projecting potential future changes in agricultural land use is to be able to understand and represent in models both the socio-economic and physical processes that control current land use distributions. Thus, this paper presents an approach to modelling the spatial distribution of agricultural land use at the regional scale. The approach is based on the simulation of farm-scale decision making processes (based on optimisation) and the response of crops to their physical environment. Regional scale applications of the model are undertaken through the use of spatially-variable, geographic data sets (soils, climate and topography) combined with economic data. Examples of the application of the model are given for two regions of England: the north-west and east Anglia. These regions were selected to give examples of contrasting land use systems within the context of northern European agriculture. The model results are compared statistically with observed distributions of agricultural land use for the same regions in a quasi-validation exercise. The comparison suggests that the model is very good at representing land use that is aggregated at the regional level, and at representing general spatial trends in land use patterns. Some differences were observed, however, in land use densities between the modelled and observed data. The results suggest that the basic hypothesis of the model: that farmers are risk averse, profit maximisers, is a reasonable assumption for the regions studied. However, further study of decision making processes would be likely to improve our ability to model agricultural land use distributions. This includes, for example, the role of farmer attitudes to risk, differing views on future prices and profitability, and the effect of time lags in the decision process