Does the Solow Residual for Korea Reflect Pure Technology Shocks?

This study investigates the relationship between the measured Solow residual and demand side variables for the Korean economy. The measured Solow residuals are shown to be Granger-caused by some demand side variables such as exports, M1, and government expenditure. A vector error correction model is constructed to investigate dynamic relation between these demand side variables and the Solow residual. Impulse response functions shows that the measured Solow residual moves pro-cyclically with the demand shocks, and that the forecast error variance of the measured Solow residual is mostly explained by past innovations of these demand side variablesSolow residual, Productivity shock, Vector error correction model

The Effect of Imports and Exports on Total Factor Productivity in Korea

We investigate the effect of imports and exports on total factor productivity in Korea during 1980-2003. We find Granger causality from imports to total factor productivity (TFP) growth, but no causality from exports to TFP growth. We then investigate the impact of trade and other variables on TFP growth. According to our results, imports have a significant positive effect on TFP growth but exports do not. In addition, our results indicate that the positive impact of imports arises not only from the competitive pressures associated with the imports of consumer goods but also from technological transfers embodied in imports of capital goods from developed countries.

Which external shock matters in small open economies? Global risk aversion vs. US economic policy uncertainty

We investigate the roles of global risk aversion and US economic policy uncertainty in contributing to financial and macroeconomic fluctuations in small open economies (SOEs). We use a panel of forty SOEs that includes both advanced economies (AEs) and emerging markets economies (EMEs) to find that SOEs' financial and economic activities exhibit relatively short-lived and robust reactions to risk aversion shocks, while responding smoothly and persistently to US policy uncertainty shocks, consistent with Bloom et al. (2018). A novel finding of this paper is that the responses of AEs and EMEs are asymmetric: AEs react more strongly to US policy uncertainty shocks while EMEs are more sensitive to risk aversion shocks. These results suggest that the channels through which each shock is transmitted to SOEs may vary.1

Uncertainty, Credit and Investment: Evidence from Firm-Bank Matched Data

This paper studies how high uncertainty affects corporate bank loans, addressing the important identification issue. In times of high uncertainty, firms reduce their credit demand due to delayed investments or a deterioration in their credit worthiness, while at the same time banks are more exposed to negative shocks to their balance sheet and thereby reduce credit supply. To isolate the uncertainty effect from the credit supply effect, we employ matched bank-firm loan data covering all loans extended by all financial intermediaries to the universe of listed firms in Korea, a bank-centered economy. Our empirical results reveal that a failure to control for credit supply leads to overestimation of the negative effect of uncertainty on bank loans. In addition, we find that the negative effect is stronger for relatively larger firms or financially unconstrained firms with low leverage or financial slack, once credit supply is controlled for. We confirm the same results in the analysis of firm investment, suggesting that high uncertainty may transmit to investment and bank loans mainly through the real options effects.I. Introduction II. Empirical Framework III. Data IV. Results V. Conclusions References Appendi

For Whom the Levy Tolls: The Case of a Macroprudential Stability Levy in South Korea

Can capital flow management measures (CFMs) reduce external vulnerability of the economy? This paper studies the effectiveness of a macroprudential stability levy introduced in Korea, which was intended to curb foreign currency (FX) debt as well as to lengthen its maturity structure in the banking sector. Using the detailed bank-level balance sheet data, this study finds that the levy had limited effects on curbing non-core FX debt, while it substantially lengthened its maturity structure driven mainly by foreign bank branches' interoffice account. The subsequent analysis employing the transaction-level loan rate data further suggests that it likely had unintended consequences favoring foreign bank branches that took advantage of regulatory arbitrage and therefore were able to take FX loan market share from domestic banks that could not avoid passing the levy onto their borrowers.N

Bank competition and transmission of monetary policy

This study investigates whether the transmission of monetary policy depends on the degree of competition in the banking sector. Applying an interacted panel VAR methodology consisting of a panel of 23 advanced economies, we find that GDP and credit respond less strongly to monetary policy shocks in economies where the bank market is more concentrated. We use the Lerner Index as a measure of banking competition and find evidence - albeit less clear - that monetary policy transmission is stronger when the banking sector is more competitive.1

Imports, exports and total factor productivity in Korea

This study investigates the relationship between trade and economic growth in Korea during 1980-2003. We find Granger causality from imports to Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth, and the absence of any causal relation between exports and TFP. We then, empirically examine the impact of various trade variables on TFP growth. Our results indicate that imports have a significant positive effect on TFP growth, but exports do not. Furthermore, our results suggest that the positive impact of imports stems not only from competitive pressures arising from the imports of consumer goods but also from technological transfers embodied in imports of capital goods and imports from developed countries. Most of our empirical results still hold when we replace TFP growth with Gross Domestic Profit (GDP) growth as the dependent variable.