THE EFFECTS OF COMPETITION ON U.S. WHEAT MARKET SHARES IN EAST ASIA

The effects of competition between wheat export countries on the U.S. wheat market shares in ten Asian countries are analyzed. The variables are relative forms of the U.S. against Australian and Canadian variables to incorporate the effects of competition among exporters. From the estimation results, we could not find distinct effects of wheat prices, exchange rates, changes of the prices and currency values, and the U.S. export enhancement program on the U.S. wheat export performance. This implies that further studies are needed to analyze other factors beyond these variables for the Asian wheat import market, such as different protein or type of wheat, importing countries¡¯ trading policies, or utilization of the state trading agencies.International Wheat Trade, Market Share, Panel Estimation, Panel Unit-Root Test

ANALYSIS OF U.S. WHEAT MARKET SHARES IN EAST ASIA

The effects of U.S. wheat prices, dollar values, and their volatilities on U.S. wheat market shares in 10 Asian countries are analyzed. The variables are converted to a relative form comparing the U.S. against Australian and Canadian variables in order to incorporate the effects of competition among these countries. The effects of the increased loan rates and target prices in the early 1980s and the U.S. export enhancement program (EEP) are also analyzed. Estimation results show that higher U.S. wheat prices and U.S. dollar appreciation have detrimental effects, while increases in competitors? wheat prices and currency values have cross positive effects on U.S. market shares. The importers are not sensitive to volatility in annual price and exchange rate changes. Dummy variables representing the domestic farm and trade policies are not statistically significant, implying that the two variables do not have a substantial effect on U.S. wheat export performance in the markets.international wheat trade, market share, panel unit-root test, panel estimation, Crop Production/Industries, International Relations/Trade,

THE EFFECT OF FOOD-SAFETY RELATED INFORMATION ON CONSUMERS' PREFERENCE: THE CASE OF BSE OUTBREAK IN JAPAN

This study analyzes consumers' responses to food-safety related information by evaluating if Japanese consumers have undergone a structural change in their preferences for meat due to the BSE outbreak in the country. The axiom of revealed preference is utilized to test the stability of preference in Japanese meat consumption. The matrix of weak form of revealed preference (WARP) is partitioned and Kruskal-Wallis statistics are derived to evaluate whether the switches of preference are transitory or due to a structural change. Empirical results show that Japanese meat demand has undergone a structural change, synchronized with the BSE outbreak in Japan in mid-September 2001.Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety,

FRACTAL GEOMETRY IN AGRICULTURAL CASH PRICE DYNAMICS

Agricultural prices are determined by natural and socio-economic factors that are known to be self-similar at different time scales and to follow non-periodic cyclical patterns. These properties are most easily understood using Mandelbrot's fractal geometry, in which a jagged time series is treated as a jagged coastline or any other natural phenomenon. The fractal market hypothesis provides the theory needed to explain why fractal structure exists in agricultural prices. Empirical evidence confirms theoretical predictions.Demand and Price Analysis,

U.S. MEAT EXPORTS AND FOOD SAFETY INFORMATION

New information about food safety can stimulate a sudden, significant concern by the public, resulting in a pronounced change in consumer demand. One such example is the declining level of beef consumption in Europe and Japan, stemming from the outbreak of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE), known as mad-cow disease. This study evaluates the impacts of the BSE outbreak in Japan in September 2001 on the import demands for U.S. meat in Japan and South Korea, using a nonparametric revealed preference approach. Empirical results show that there are excess violations in the Japanese data after the timing of the outbreak, but not in the South Korean data, implying that the event has influenced Japanese meat import demand, but not South Korean meat import demand.Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy, meat import demand, revealed preference, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, International Relations/Trade,

The Role of Productivity Growth and Farmers' Income Protection Policies in the Decline of Relative Farm Prices in the United States

The paper emphasizes three interrelated questions about the decline in relative farm to non-farm prices in the United States since 1973; 1) Is it unusual, 2) What caused it, and 3) Is it likely to continue? We find that based on historical and international evidence this phenomenon may be considered unusual. Separating farm price and income support in 1973 and growing relative productivity in agriculture has been the major contributor to changing the trend of the relative farm goods inflation. This trend is likely to continue based on predicted steady growth of relative agricultural productivity and continuation of direct payments and other forms of farm income support policies.Government transfers, Productivity growth, Relative farm prices, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Productivity Analysis,

A REEXAMINATION OF FRACTIONAL INTEGRATING DYNAMICS IN FOREIGN CURRENCY MARKETS

This paper reexamines foreign currency markets for evidence of fractional integration, and extends the extant literature in several important dimensions. First, we utilize a new semiparametric wavelet-based estimator, which is far superior to the more prevalent GPH estimator on the basis of mean squared error. Second, we utilize a broader and longer sample, which better facilitates the detection of long memory dynamics. Our analysis yields interesting empirical results that contrast with other recent studies. In particular, we find new evidence that a large proportion (fourteen out of nineteen) of exchange rate series display evidence of long memory, with little variation over alternative sample periods.Financial Economics,

THE EFFECTS OF THE FREE TRADE AGREEMENT AMONG CHINA, JAPAN AND SOUTH KOREA

A computable general equilibrium model is used to evaluate the economic effects of a free trade agreement among China, Japan, and South Korea on the world economy. This study is focused on estimating trade creation and diversion effects of the FTA. Results show that there are strong trade diversion effects of the FTA between the member countries and the rest-of-the-world. This is especially true for trade in the high-technology manufacturing sector between the U.S and China. This study also reveals that the member countries under the FTA tend to specialize on the basis of resource endowments, but there exists a significant amount of intra-industry trade among the member countries in all sectors except agricultural and service/utility sectors. In addition, the FTA stimulates the economies of the three countries through increased trade volume, but provides a significant negative effect on economies of non-member countries.Free Trade Agreement, Trade Diversion Effect, Trade Creation Effect, Computable General Equilibrium Model, GTAP

PRODUCTIVITY SPILLOVERS FROM INWARD FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN THE U.S. FOOD PROCESSING INDUSTRY

Productivity spillovers in the U.S. food processing industry resulting from inward foreign direct investment (FDI) were examined for the time period of 1988 to 1992. Both Caves-type (unidirectional) and simultaneous (bidirectional) spillover models were considered in the analysis. Using the Caves-type spillovers model, foreign investment was found to have significantly negative spillovers. The technology gap between U.S. firms and foreign firms in the food processing industry was small, and it was positively related to the productivity growth. The simultaneous equation model revealed that spillovers were bi-directional in the U.S. food processing industry. The demonstration effect from foreign presence was negative, but the competition effect had even larger positive spillovers for U.S. domestically-owned firms. As a whole, the U.S. food processing industry has benefited from the competition brought by inward FDI.International Relations/Trade,

THIRD COUNTRY EFFECTS ON U.S. WHEAT EXPORT PERFORMANCE IN ASIAN COUNTRIES

This study examines third country effects on U.S. wheat export performance in Asian countries. An import demand model is developed to analyze the impacts of price competitiveness, exchange rates, and exchange rate volatilities on U.S. wheat market shares. The United States competes with Australia and Canada in the Asian wheat market. Empirical results show that two factors, Australian wheat price and U.S. dollar values against the Asian countries' currencies, have significant effects on U.S. market shares in this region. Furthermore, exchange rate risks between the exporting and importing countries are found to be important.international grain trade, market share, exchange rate, panel analysis., International Relations/Trade,