Sex-specific mortality forecasting for UK countries: a coherent approach

This paper introduces a gender specific model for the joint mortality projection of three countries (England and Wales combined, Scotland, and Northern Ireland) of the United Kingdom. The model, called 2-tier Augmented Common Factor model, extends the classical Lee and Carter [26] and Li and Lee [32] models, with a common time factor for the whole UK population, a sex specific period factor for males and females, and a specific time factor for each country within each gender. As death counts in each subpopulation are modelled directly, a Poisson framework is used. Our results show that the 2-tier ACF model improves the in-sample fitting compared to the use of independent LC models for each subpopulation or of independent Li and Lee models for each couple of genders within each country. Mortality projections also show that the 2-tier ACF model produces coherent forecasts for the two genders within each country and different countries within each gender, thus avoiding the divergence issues arising when independent projections are used. The 2-tier ACF is further extended to include a cohort term to take into account the faster improvements of the UK ‘golden generation’

A repeated measures experiment of school playing environment to increase physical activity and enhance self esteem in UK school children

School playtime provides daily opportunities for children to be active outdoors, but only makes small contributions to physical activity (PA) requirements. Natural environments facilitate unstructured PA and children report a preference for play in nature. Thus, play on the school field might encourage children to be more active during playtime. The primary aim of this study was to examine the impact of the school playing environment on children's PA. Descriptive data and fitness were assessed in 25 children aged 8–9 years from a single primary school. Over two consecutive weeks participants were allocated to either play on the school field or playground during playtime. The order of play in the two areas was randomised and counterbalanced. Moderate to vigorous PA (MVPA) was assessed during playtime on the last two days of each week using accelerometers. There was a significant interaction of environment and sex on MVPA during morning play (F(1,22) = 6.27; P0.05; np2 = 0.060) or all of playtime combined (P>0.05; np2 = 0.140). During morning play boys were significantly more active than girls on the playground (t(23) = 1.32; P0.05; n2 = 0.071). For lunch (F(1,22) = 24,11; P<0.001; np2 = 0.523) and all of playtime combined (F(1,22) = 33.67; P<0.001; np2 = 0.616) there was a significant effect of environment. There was also a significant main effect of sex during lunch (F(1,22) = 11.56; P<0.01; np2 = 0.344) and all of playtime combined (F(1,22) = 12.37; P<0.01; np2 = 0.371). MVPA was higher on the field and boys were more active than girls. Play on the field leads to increases in MVPA, particularly in girls. The promising trend for the effect of the natural environment on MVPA indicates that interventions aimed at increasing MVPA should use the natural environment and that schools should encourage greater use of their natural areas to increase PA

Approximate entropy detects the effect of a secondary cognitive task on postural control in healthy young adults: a methodological report

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Biomechanical measures of postural stability, while generally useful in neuroscience and physical rehabilitation research, may be limited in their ability to detect more subtle influences of attention on postural control. Approximate entropy (ApEn), a regularity statistic from nonlinear dynamics, recently has demonstrated relatively good measurement precision and shown promise for detecting subtle change in postural control after cerebral concussion. Our purpose was to further explore the responsiveness of ApEn by using it to evaluate the immediate, short-term effect of secondary cognitive task performance on postural control in healthy, young adults.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Thirty healthy, young adults performed a modified version of the Sensory Organization Test featuring single (posture only) and dual (posture plus cognitive) task trials. ApEn values, root mean square (RMS) displacement, and equilibrium scores (ES) were calculated from anterior-posterior (AP) and medial-lateral (ML) center of pressure (COP) component time series. For each sensory condition, we compared the ability of the postural control parameters to detect an effect of cognitive task performance.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>COP AP time series generally became more random (higher ApEn value) during dual task performance, resulting in a main effect of cognitive task (p = 0.004). In contrast, there was no significant effect of cognitive task for ApEn values of COP ML time series, RMS displacement (AP or ML) or ES.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>During dual task performance, ApEn revealed a change in the randomness of COP oscillations that occurred in a variety of sensory conditions, independent of changes in the amplitude of COP oscillations. The finding expands current support for the potential of ApEn to detect subtle changes in postural control. Implications for future studies of attention in neuroscience and physical rehabilitation are discussed.</p

Forecasting Non-Stationary Diarrhea, Acute Respiratory Infection, and Malaria Time-Series in Niono, Mali

BACKGROUND: Much of the developing world, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, exhibits high levels of morbidity and mortality associated with diarrhea, acute respiratory infection, and malaria. With the increasing awareness that the aforementioned infectious diseases impose an enormous burden on developing countries, public health programs therein could benefit from parsimonious general-purpose forecasting methods to enhance infectious disease intervention. Unfortunately, these disease time-series often i) suffer from non-stationarity; ii) exhibit large inter-annual plus seasonal fluctuations; and, iii) require disease-specific tailoring of forecasting methods. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In this longitudinal retrospective (01/1996-06/2004) investigation, diarrhea, acute respiratory infection of the lower tract, and malaria consultation time-series are fitted with a general-purpose econometric method, namely the multiplicative Holt-Winters, to produce contemporaneous on-line forecasts for the district of Niono, Mali. This method accommodates seasonal, as well as inter-annual, fluctuations and produces reasonably accurate median 2- and 3-month horizon forecasts for these non-stationary time-series, i.e., 92% of the 24 time-series forecasts generated (2 forecast horizons, 3 diseases, and 4 age categories = 24 time-series forecasts) have mean absolute percentage errors circa 25%. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The multiplicative Holt-Winters forecasting method: i) performs well across diseases with dramatically distinct transmission modes and hence it is a strong general-purpose forecasting method candidate for non-stationary epidemiological time-series; ii) obliquely captures prior non-linear interactions between climate and the aforementioned disease dynamics thus, obviating the need for more complex disease-specific climate-based parametric forecasting methods in the district of Niono; furthermore, iii) readily decomposes time-series into seasonal components thereby potentially assisting with programming of public health interventions, as well as monitoring of disease dynamics modification. Therefore, these forecasts could improve infectious diseases management in the district of Niono, Mali, and elsewhere in the Sahel

After the epidemic: Zika virus projections for Latin America and the Caribbean

Background: Zika is one of the most challenging emergent vector-borne diseases, yet its future public health impact remains unclear. Zika was of little public health concern until recent reports of its association with congenital syndromes. By 3 August 2017 ~217,000 Zika cases and ~3,400 cases of associated congenital syndrome were reported in Latin America and the Caribbean. Some modelling exercises suggest that Zika virus infection could become endemic in agreement with recent declarations from the The World Health Organisation. Methodology/Principal findings: We produced high-resolution spatially-explicit projections of Zika cases, associated congenital syndromes and monetary costs for Latin America and the Caribbean now that the epidemic phase of the disease appears to be over. In contrast to previous studies which have adopted a modelling approach to map Zika potential, we project case numbers using a statistical approach based upon reported dengue case data as a Zika surrogate. Our results indicate that ~12.3 (0.7–162.3) million Zika cases could be expected across Latin America and the Caribbean every year, leading to ~64.4 (0.2–5159.3) thousand cases of Guillain-Barré syndrome and ~4.7 (0.0–116.3) thousand cases of microcephaly. The economic burden of these neurological sequelae are estimated to be USD ~2.3 (USD 0–159.3) billion per annum. Conclusions/Significance: Zika is likely to have significant public health consequences across Latin America and the Caribbean in years to come. Our projections inform regional and federal health authorities, offering an opportunity to adapt to this public health challenge

Forest Plant and Bird Communities in the Lau Group, Fiji

We examined species composition of forest and bird communities in relation to environmental and human disturbance gradients on Lakeba (55.9 km²), Nayau (18.4 km²), and Aiwa Levu (1.2 km²), islands in the Lau Group of Fiji, West Polynesia. The unique avifauna of West Polynesia (Fiji, Tonga, Samoa) has been subjected to prehistoric human-caused extinctions but little was previously known about this topic in the Lau Group. We expected that the degree of human disturbance would be a strong determinant of tree species composition and habitat quality for surviving landbirds, while island area would be unrelated to bird diversity.All trees > 5 cm diameter were measured and identified in 23 forest plots of 500 m² each. We recognized four forest species assemblages differentiated by composition and structure: coastal forest, dominated by widely distributed species, and three forest types with differences related more to disturbance history (stages of secondary succession following clearing or selective logging) than to environmental gradients (elevation, slope, rockiness). Our point counts (73 locations in 1 or 2 seasons) recorded 18 of the 24 species of landbirds that exist on the three islands. The relative abundance and species richness of birds were greatest in the forested habitats least disturbed by people. These differences were due mostly to increased numbers of columbid frugivores and passerine insectivores in forests on Lakeba and Aiwa Levu. Considering only forested habitats, the relative abundance and species richness of birds were greater on the small but completely forested (and uninhabited) island of Aiwa Levu than on the much larger island of Lakeba.Forest disturbance history is more important than island area in structuring both tree and landbird communities on remote Pacific islands. Even very small islands may be suitable for conservation reserves if they are protected from human disturbance

T2K neutrino flux prediction

cited By 15 art_number: 012001 affiliation: Centre for Particle Physics, Department of Physics, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada; Albert Einstein Center for Fundamental Physics, Laboratory for High Energy Physics (LHEP), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Department of Physics, Boston University, Boston, MA, United States; Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States; IRFU, CEA Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; Institute for Universe and Elementary Particles, Chonnam National University, Gwangju, South Korea; Department of Physics, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States; Department of Physics, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States; Department of Physics, Dongshin University, Naju, South Korea; Department of Physics, Duke University, Durham, NC, United States; IN2P3-CNRS, Laboratoire Leprince-Ringuet, Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau, France; Institute for Particle Physics, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Section de Physique, DPNC, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland; H. Niewodniczanski Institute of Nuclear Physics PAN, Cracow, Poland; High Energy Accelerator Research Organization (KEK), Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; Institut de Fisica d’Altes Energies (IFAE), Bellaterra (Barcelona), Spain; IFIC (CSIC and University of Valencia), Valencia, Spain; Department of Physics, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom; INFN Sezione di Bari, Dipartimento Interuniversitario di Fisica, Università e Politecnico di Bari, Bari, Italy; INFN Sezione di Napoli and Dipartimento di Fisica, Università di Napoli, Napoli, Italy; INFN Sezione di Padova, Dipartimento di Fisica, Università di Padova, Padova, Italy; INFN Sezione di Roma, Università di Roma la Sapienza, Roma, Italy; Institute for Nuclear Research, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation; Kobe University, Kobe, Japan; Department of Physics, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan; Physics Department, Lancaster University, Lancaster, United Kingdom; Department of Physics, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom; Department of Physics and Astronomy, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, United States; Université de Lyon, Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, IPN Lyon (IN2P3), Villeurbanne, France; Department of Physics, Miyagi University of Education, Sendai, Japan; National Centre for Nuclear Research, Warsaw, Poland; State University of New York at Stony Brook, Stony Brook, NY, United States; Department of Physics and Astronomy, Osaka City University, Department of Physics, Osaka, Japan; Department of Physics, Oxford University, Oxford, United Kingdom; UPMC, Université Paris Diderot, Laboratoire de Physique Nucléaire et de Hautes Energies (LPNHE), Paris, France; Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, United States; School of Physics, Queen Mary University of London, London, United Kingdom; Department of Physics, University of Regina, Regina, SK, Canada; Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY, United States; III. Physikalisches Institut, RWTH Aachen University, Aachen, Germany; Department of Physics and Astronomy, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea; Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, United Kingdom; University of Silesia, Institute of Physics, Katowice, Poland; STFC, Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Harwell Oxford, Warrington, United Kingdom; Department of Physics, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; Institute for Cosmic Ray Research, Kamioka Observatory, University of Tokyo, Kamioka, Japan; Institute for Cosmic Ray Research, Research Center for Cosmic Neutrinos, University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Japan; Department of Physics, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; TRIUMF, Vancouver, BC, Canada; Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; Faculty of Physics, University of Warsaw, Warsaw, Poland; Institute of Radioelectronics, Warsaw University of Technology, Warsaw, Poland; Department of Physics, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom; Department of Physics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States; Department of Physics, University of Winnipeg, Winnipeg, MB, Canada; Faculty of Physics and Astronomy, Wroclaw University, Wroclaw, Poland; Department of Physics and Astronomy, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada references: Astier, P., (2003) Nucl. 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