Creating an Eportfolio with MS FrontPage: It Doesn’t Get Any Easier!

In recent years, many Colleges of Education have converted the educator portfolio to an electronic version available through the internet. In the summer of 2000, the College of Education at Eastern Kentucky University (EKU) decided to embark on a challenge to move from the paper portfolio to an electronic portfolio. Prior to 2000, the college was using paper portfolios, but now, with over 1,600 eportfolios online, paper portfolios are a thing of the past. This paper describes the mechanics of the eportfolio, how it works, how it was developed, and how anyone with basic technology skills can duplicate the eportfolio used at EKU. Links to several resources, including the complete eportfolio template as well as the student and faculty user manuals are provided in the paper

Forecasting time series with complex seasonal patterns using exponential smoothing

A new innovations state space modeling framework, incorporating Box-Cox transformations, Fourier series with time varying coefficients and ARMA error correction, is introduced for forecasting complex seasonal time series that cannot be handled using existing forecasting models. Such complex time series include time series with multiple seasonal periods, high frequency seasonality, non-integer seasonality and dual-calendar effects. Our new modelling framework provides an alternative to existing exponential smoothing models, and is shown to have many advantages. The methods for initialization and estimation, including likelihood evaluation, are presented, and analytical expressions for point forecasts and interval predictions under the assumption of Gaussian errors are derived, leading to a simple, comprehensible approach to forecasting complex seasonal time series. Our trigonometric formulation is also presented as a means of decomposing complex seasonal time series, which cannot be decomposed using any of the existing decomposition methods. The approach is useful in a broad range of applications, and we illustrate its versatility in three empirical studies where it demonstrates excellent forecasting performance over a range of prediction horizons. In addition, we show that our trigonometric decomposition leads to the identification and extraction of seasonal components, which are otherwise not apparent in the time series plot itself.Exponential smoothing, Fourier series, prediction intervals, seasonality, state space models, time series decomposition

Forecasting age-specific breast cancer mortality using functional data models

Accurate estimates of future age-specific incidence and mortality are critical for allocation of resources to breast cancer control programs and evaluation of screening programs. The purpose of this study is to apply functional data analysis techniques to model age-specific breast cancer mortality time trends, and forecast entire age-specific mortality function using a state-space approach. We use yearly unadjusted breast cancer mortality rates in Australia, from 1921 to 2001 in 5 year age groups (45 to 85+). We use functional data analysis techniques where mortality and incidence are modeled as curves with age as a functional covariate varying by time. Data is smoothed using nonparametric smoothing methods then decomposed (using principal components analysis) to estimate basis functions that represent the functional curve. Period effects from the fitted functions are forecast then multiplied by the basis functions, resulting in a forecast mortality curve with prediction intervals. To forecast, we adopt a state-space approach and an extension of the Pegels modeling framework for selecting among exponential smoothing methods. Overall, breast cancer mortality rates in Australia remained relatively stable from 1960 to the late 1990's but declined over the last few years. A set of K=4 basis functions minimized the mean integrated squared forecasting error (MISFE) and accounts for 99.3% of variation around the mean mortality curve. 20 year forecast suggest a continual decline at a slower rate and stabilize beyond 2010 and by age, forecasts show a decline in all age groups with the greatest decline in older women. We illustrate the utility of a new modelling and forecasting approach to model breast cancer mortality rates using a functional model of age. The methods have the potential to incorporate important covariates such as Hormone Replacement Therapy (HRT) and interventions to represent mammographic screening. This would be particularly useful for evaluating the impact of screening on mortality and incidence from breast cancer.Mortality, Breast Cancer, Forecasting, Functional Data Analysis, Exponential Smoothing

Data report: Seismic structure beneath the North Cascadia drilling transect of IODP Expedition 311

Between 1999 and 2004, new seismic data became available for the study of gas hydrates on the northern Cascadia margin. These data consist of multi- and single-channel data with two- and partly three-dimensional subsurface coverage and were acquired and used in support of the proposal for Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Expedition 311 carried out in 2005. The working area lies across the continental slope off the coast of central Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada, with water depths ranging from 2600 m in the trench to 500 m on the upper slope, where it is well above the minimum depth for gas hydrate stability. This paper gives the details of the data acquisition and conventional processing and then focuses on describing the new data at six individual sites along a transect across the gas hydrate zone. Five of the sites were drilled during the Expedition 311. The transect of sites commences at the almost undeformed incoming sediments seaward of the region where gas hydrates are observed; these ocean basin sediments were drilled at a site 40 km southeast during Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Leg 146. The transect continues up the continental slope into the area of hydrate stability, with a site on top of the frontal accretionary ridge where normal faulting indicates margin parallel extension; a site in the first slope basin overlying a buried ridge near a reflectivity wipe-out zone; a site adjacent to Site 889 of Leg 146 and therefore acting as a tie hole; the most landward site at the shallowest end of the hydrate stability field; and a cold vent site at one of several blank zones close to a bright spot region in the seismic records

From Zero to Over 2,500 Eportfolios in Six Years: The Eastern Kentucky University Experience

In 2000, Eastern Kentucky University (EKU) was awarded a Preparing Tomorrows Teachers to Use Technology (PT3) Implementation grant. One of the major goals of the grant was to create an electronic/multimedia portfolio (eportfolio) assessment system through which future teachers would document their proficiencies and amass strategies to enhance their future teaching. Between the fall of 2000 and the summer of 2003 an eportfolio development team, consisting of faculty from the College of Education and the College of Arts and Sciences, a college student, a public school teacher, and a technology expert, developed and implemented an eportfolio to be used by all teacher education candidates in the College of Education. Through systematic piloting and review, the obstacles and challenges of developing an eportfolio were met and a professional product was incorporated into the teacher education program in the College of Education. As of spring 2006, over 2,500 College of Education student eportfolios are online

Technology Learning Impact on Pre-service Teacher Education Candidates After Implementation of a Web-Based E-portfolio

This study examined the role of student competence, attitude, and training on the production of student e-portfolios. Neither student background nor experience had a significant impact on their attitude toward developing an e-portfoli

Mechanical nociceptive threshold testing in Bos indicus bull calves

The aim of this prospective, controlled, randomised trial was to develop a technique for mechanical nociceptive threshold testing (NTT) to assess pain in Bos indicus bull calves undergoing surgical castration. Analgesia was provided by 0.5 mg/kg subcutaneous (SC) meloxicam (M) and/or 2 mg/kg of intra-testicular and SC (at the surgery sites) lidocaine (L). Forty-eight Brahman bull calves at 6–8 months of age were divided into six study groups, each with eight animals: no surgery control; surgical castration (C) without analgesia; C and Mpre-op; C and Mpost-op; C, L and Mpost-op; C and L. Mechanical NTT was performed the day before surgery (Day –1) and on Days 1, 2, 6, 10 and 13 after surgery. A handheld manual pneumatic device with a 1-mm (diameter) blunt pin was used to deliver a mechanical stimulus to a maximum of 27 Newtons either side of the most dorsal aspect of the sacrum. The most frequent responses to the mechanical stimulus were lifting or kicking of the leg on the same side as the stimulus (31%) and stepping away from the stimulus (24.9%). Data were analysed with a mixed effect linear model with the nociceptive threshold (NT) as the response variable and day and analgesic treatment as predictors (P < 0.05 was considered significant). For all groups, there was a trend towards decreasing NT over the study period but there were no significant differences between groups. Step down model selection with day, batch and treatment terms revealed a significant effect of day (P < 0.001) and batch (P = 0.007). Mechanical NTT for assessment of pain in Bos indicus bull calves requires further refinement to determine if this is a useful method of pain assessment