Blending systems thinking approaches for organisational analysis: reviewing child protection in England

This paper concerns the innovative use of a blend of systems thinking ideas in the ‘Munro Review of Child Protection’, a high-profile examination of child protection activities in England, conducted for the Department for Education. We go ‘behind the scenes’ to describe the OR methodologies and processes employed. The circumstances that led to the Review are outlined. Three specific contributions that systems thinking made to the Review are then described. First, the systems-based analysis and visualisation of how a ‘compliance culture’ had grown up. Second the creation of a large, complex systems map of current operations and the effects of past policies on them. Third, how the map gave shape to the range of issues the Review addressed and acted as an organising framework for the systemically coherent set of recommendations made. The paper closes with an outline of the main implementation steps taken so far to create a child protection system with the critically reflective properties of a learning organisation, and methodological reflections on the benefits of systems thinking to support organisational analysis

Understanding foodborne transmission mechanisms for Norovirus: a study for the UK's Food Standards Agency

The paper outlines the ‘complete arc’ of a range of modelling activities initiated by UK's Food Standards Agency (FSA). Norovirus produces infectious intestinal disease in humans via both person-to-person contact (P2P) and foodborne (FB) transmission. The FSA commissioned a research study to improve understanding of FB mechanisms, and of where it might target its efforts. In response, an existing P2P model with a single, exogenous parameter for FB transmission was transformed into a System Dynamics model of FB processes. The modelling involved individual interviews and a facilitated group modelling session, the FSA providing access to relevant experts. Contamination routes modelled concerned: bi-valve shellfish; sludge; some fruits and vegetables; other foodstuffs. This large model showed it was possible to give an account of the underlying causal mechanisms; and it facilitated a categorisation of parameters in a manner useful in agenda-setting for future research and in identifying policy levers. Some creative thinking extended the work in an unexpected but significant way. Data and mathematical analysis made it possible to calibrate a P2P model for the first time. Sensitivity analysis then suggested that small changes in human behaviour could explain the tenfold seasonal variation in Norovirus cases, and also offered an understanding of the relative importance of FB and P2P vectors. The range of consequences of the study included an increased understanding by the FSA of the different means of trying to control Norovirus, practical actions and ideas for further work

Foodborne transmission of norovirus: mechanism modelling, seasonality and policy implications (2020 System Dynamics Applications Award paper)

The paper describes a study of the foodborne transmission mechanisms for norovirus. It was undertaken for the UK Food Standards Agency and received the System Dynamics Society’s 2020 ‘System Dynamics Applications Award’. The paper opens with descriptions of norovirus, the organisational context and the aims of the study. The first phase involved the construction of a large, fully formulated SD simulation model which included person-to-person and newly-built, food-related mechanisms for norovirus transmission. The group modelling process and the model structure are described. The model’s existence demonstrated that enough was known about foodborne mechanisms to create an explicit and carefully documented representation that specialists recognised, understood and accepted. Additionally, a framework for analysing the models’ parameters – some currently unknown - helped organise FSA thinking on future research and potential policy levers. A second phase used mathematical analysis of a simplified SD model to assess the relative scale of the foodborne effects. In terms of contributions, this generated insights into possible sources of seasonality and insights into whether the most effective leverage points in the system lay solely within the remit of the FSA or were also within the remits of other government departments. The paper closes by summarising the findings and then exploring their policy implications and recording the client’s reactions to them