A Seasonality in the Pakistani Equity Market: The Ramadhan Effect

This paper attempts to explore a seasonal pattern, the Ramadhan effect, in the Pakistani equity market. Ramadhan, the holy month of fasting, is expected to affect the behavior of stock market in Pakistan where the environment in Ramadhan is different from other months as people devote more time to perform rituals and the general economic activity slows down. The effects of Ramadhan on mean return and stock returns volatility are examined by including a dummy variable in regressions and GARCH models respectively. The analysis indicates a significant decline in stock returns volatility in this month although the mean return indicates no significant change.Stock Prices; Pakistan; Ramadhan; Seasonality; Equity Market

The Day of the Week Effect in the Pakistani Equity Market: An Investigation

This paper investigates the day of the week effect in the Pakistani equity market. Using daily data on eight sector indices as well as the general market index from January 1989 to December 1993, the analysis did not find, in general, significant differences in stock returns across trading days in the market. An overtime analysis indicates the presence of this anomaly in the period before the market was opened to international investors which disappeared in the later periods.Day Effect; Pakistan; Seasonality; Equity Market; Efficiency

Exploring the Two Commodity World

This paper attempts to explore the nature of the goods in a Two Commodity world. The analysis suggests that the only possibility that the two goods have same income elasticity is the case when both goods have unit income elasticities. Moreover, if both the goods have equal income elasticities, then these goods will belong to the same category and will be in equal relation to each other. The analysis further suggests that if one of the good has zero income elasticity, it will always be a substitute to the other good which will always be an elastic good. These results are supported by the CES and Quasi-linear utility functions.Consumer Behaviour, Demand Functions, Two Commodity, Utility Functions

A Seasonality in the Pakistani Equity Market: The Ramadhan Effect

This paper attempts to explore a seasonal pattern, the Ramadhan effect, in the Pakistani equity market. Ramadhan, the holy month of fasting, is expected to affect the behaviour of stock market in Pakistan where the environment in Ramadhan is different from other months as people devote more time to perform religious rituals and the general economic activity slows down. The effects of Ramadhan on mean return and stock returns volatility are examined by including a dummy variable in regressions and GARCH models respectively. The analysis indicates a significant decline in stock returns volatility in this month although the mean return indicates no significant change.

Stock Prices, Real Sector and the Causal Analysis: The Case of Pakistan

This paper re-examines the causal relationship between stock prices and the variables representing the real sector of the Pakistani economy.Using annual data from 1959/60 to 2004/05, examining the stochastic properties of the variables used in the analysis, and taking care of the shifts in the series due to the start of the economic liberalization program in the early 1990s, the paper investigates the causal relations between stock prices and variables like real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), real consumption expenditure, and real investment spending. The analysis indicates the presence of a long run relationship between stock prices and the real sector variables. Regarding the cause and effect relationship, the analysis indicates a one-way causation from the real sector to stock prices implying that the stock market in Pakistan is still not that developed to influence the real sector of the economy. Hence the market cannot be characterized as the leading indicator of the economic activity in PakistanStock Prices; Causal Relations; Real Sector; Economic Activity; Pakistan

The Random Walk Model in the Pakistani Equity market: An Examination

This paper examines the validity of the Random Walk Model in the Pakistani equity market. The model, extensively tested in other equity markets, implies that past movements in a stock price are not helpful in predicting future prices of that stock. The model states that changes in stock prices are serially independent and conform to some probability distribution. Conventionally, the independence part is examined through Serial Correlation Test, whereas the distributional aspect is analysed through Frequency Distributions. Same techniques are applied in this paper on daily closing prices of 36 individual stocks, 8 sector indices, and a market index from January 1, 1989 to December 30, 1993. The analysis indicates that the Random Walk Model is not valid in the Pakistani equity market as is the case in other emerging markets. The results show the presence of strong serial dependence in stock returns and indicate the slow adjustment of the market to new information. This points to the weaknesses of the market regarding the dissemination of pertinent information to potential investors, indicating that effective measures should be taken in this regard. The shape of the distribution reveals that stock returns in the Pakistani market, like in other equity markets, do not comply with the normal distribution, implying that theoretical models must be used with caution.Stock Prices; Random Walk; Pakistan; Emerging Market; Normal Distribution

Stock Market Liberalisations in the South Asian Region

This study attempts to conduct an investigation of the characteristics of the South Asian stock markets including the effects of the opening of these markets. These markets were liberalised in early 1990s as a part of the economic reforms started in the South Asian region about two decades ago. The analysis is conducted for four countries in the South Asia, Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, covering the period from 1980 to 2003. The analysis is done with the help of tables, regression analysis, Event Window analysis, and Error Correction Functions. The analysis indicates significant development in stock markets indicators such as market capitalisation and trading value in the region following liberalisation measures. However, the development in stock markets in South Asia does not seem to influence the real sector and the stock markets are still playing a minor role in their respective economies. The integration analysis suggests that the markets in South Asia are integrated with major markets, that is, of USA, UK, and Japan. There is clear evidence that the markets in India and Pakistan are affected by the major as well as the regional markets in the long run. In the short run, however, the markets appear to be independent of one anotherStock Markets; South Asia; Liberalisation; Pakistan; India; Sri Lanka; Bangladesh; Market Integration

Causality between Money and Prices:Evidence from Pakistan

This paper re-examines the causal relationship between money and prices in Pakistan using recent data on money and prices and taking care of time series properties. The results of the paper suggest a unidirectional causality running from money to prices. Further, it seems that the monetary expansion has a greater impact on wholesale sale prices compared to CPI.Money; prices

Capital Inflows, Inflation and Exchange Rate Volatility : An Investigation for Linear and Nonlinear Causal Linkages

Since the early 1990s, there is an upsurge in foreign capital flows to developing economies, particularly into emerging markets. One view argues that capital inflows do help to increase efficiency, a better allocation of capital and to fill up the investment-saving gap. Adherents to that view advise countries to launch capital account liberalisation. In this study, we investigate the effects of capital inflows on domestic price level, monetary expansion and exchange rate volatility. To proceed with this, linear and nonlinear cointegration and Granger causality tests are applied in a bi-variate as well as in multivariate framework. The key message of the analysis is that there is a significant inflationary impact of capital inflows, in particular during the last 7 years. The finding suggest that there is a need to manage the capital inflows in such a way that they should neither create an inflationary pressure in the economy nor fuel the exchange rate volatility.Capital Inflows, Inflationary Pressures, exchange rate volatility, Monetary Expansion, Nonlinear Dynamics

Economic Liberalization and the Causal Relations among Money, Income, and Prices: The Case of Pakistan

This study re-examines the causal relations between money and the two variables, i.e., income and prices. Using annual data from 1959/60 to 2003/04, examining the stochastic properties of the variables used in the analysis, and taking care of the shifts in the series due to the start of the economic liberalization program in the early 1990s, we investigate the causal relations between real money and real income, between nominal money and nominal income, and between nominal money and prices. The analysis indicates, in general, the long run relationship among money, income, and prices. The analysis further suggests a one way causation from income to money in the long run implying that probably real factors rather than money supply has played a major role in increasing Pakistan’s national income. The study fails to find the active role of money in changing income even after taking care of possible shifts in these variables due to the economic reforms. As Regards the causal relationship between money and prices, the analysis suggests a unidirectional causality from money to prices implying monetary expansion increases inflation in Pakistan.Money; Income; Prices; Economic Liberalization; Causal Relations; Pakistan