Seasonal Forecast Based Preharvest Hedging

Given the immense effect of weather on agriculture, skillful weather forecasts are of importance to agricultural producers for effective decision making. Weather forecasts affect operational decisions such as whether or not to irrigate (where applicable), when to apply fertilizer, when to spray herbicide and pesticide, and certainly the timing of planting and harvesting. At the seasonal time scale, say in the spring, just before planting, weather forecasts may be used for strategic decision making on outcomes, say from preharvest hedging (hereafter referred to hedging), that will not be realized until the fall or harvest. Historically, the lack of skill in generating seasonal forecasts has led the vast majority of agricultural producers to not have enough confidence to use weather forecasts in the hedging decision. Scientific advancements improving skill and accuracy of seasonal weather forecasts in the 21st century have occurred due to a better understanding of the interplay between atmosphere, land, and oceans, as well as faster and more detailed computer analysis of weather and climate data (Benjamin et al., 2018). Yet, the adoption of weather forecasts in decision making in the agricultural sector has remained low. According to Klemm and McPherson (2018), the lack of adoption of forecasts can be attributed due in part to a lack of stakeholder relevance of the forecast information, a lack of forecast accuracy, or simply because the forecasts are too difficult to understand. The goal of this paper is to motivate the use of a modern-day weather forecast in the hedging decision. We achieve this goal by investigating how modern-day weather forecasts are established and develop a simple hedging model based on the weather forecast

Development of the Soil Moisture Index to Quantify Agricultural Drought and Its “User Friendliness” in Severity-Area-Duration Assessment

This paper examines the role of soil moisture in quantifying drought through the development of a drought index using observed and modeled soil moisture. In Nebraska, rainfall is received primarily during the crop-growing season and the supply of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico determines if the impending crop year is either normal or anomalous and any deficit of rain leads to a lack of soil moisture storage. Using observed soil moisture from the Automated Weather Data Network (AWDN), the actual available water content for plants is calculated as the difference between observed or modeled soil moisture and wilting point, which is subsequently normalized with the site-specific, soil property–based, idealistic available water for plants that is calculated as the difference between field capacity and wilting point to derive the soil moisture index (SMI). This index is categorized into five classes from no drought to extreme drought to quantitatively assess drought in both space and time. Additionally, with the aid of an in-house hydrology model, soil moisture was simulated in order to compute model-based SMI and to compare the drought duration and severity for various sites. The results suggest that the soil moisture influence, a positive feedback process reported in many earlier studies, is unquestionably a quantitative indicator of drought. Also, the severity and duration of drought across Nebraska has a clear gradient from west to east, with the Panhandle region experiencing severe to extreme drought in the deeper soil layers for longer periods (\u3e200 days), than the central and southwestern regions (125–150 days) or the eastern regions about 100 days or less. The anomalous rainfall years can eliminate the distinction among these regions with regard to their drought extent, severity, and persistence, thus making drought a more ubiquitous phenomenon, but the recovery from drought can be subject to similar gradations. The spatial SMI maps presented in this paper can be used with the Drought Monitor maps to assess the local drought conditions more effectively

An Examination of the Characteristics and Perceptions of School Resource Officers in Rural and Urban Oklahoma Schools

Fueled by concerns about school violence, the number of School Resource Officers (SROs) in the United States has soared. SROs are law enforcement officers who work in elementary and secondary schools and who are tasked to increase school safety. As of 2016, 48 percent of US public schools had SROs, compared to less than one percent in the 1970s, yet there are few studies that measure their effects. In particular, the literature largely ignores rural/urban differences. This study uses survey data from SROs working in public schools in Oklahoma to understand their roles and to determine if there are differences between rural and urban SROs. We look at jurisdiction and school characteristics as well as SRO perceptions of disciplinary practices, school climate, referrals, and community involvement. Identifying variability in these areas is a requisite first step in understanding the effect of the SRO on school safety

Nanowire electron scattering spectroscopy

Methods and devices for spectroscopic identification of molecules using nanoscale wires are disclosed. According to one of the methods, nanoscale wires are provided, electrons are injected into the nanoscale wire; and inelastic electron scattering is measured via excitation of low-lying vibrational energy levels of molecules bound to the nanoscale wire

Vegetation Drought Response Index An Integration of Satellite, Climate, and Biophysical Data

Drought is a normal, recurring feature of climate in most parts of the world (Wilhite, 2000) that adversely affects vegetation conditions and can have significant impacts on agriculture, ecosystems, food security, human health, water resources, and the economy. For example, in the United States, 14 billion-dollar drought events occurred between 1980 and 2009 (NCDC, 2010), with a large proportion of the losses coming from the agricultural sector in the form of crop yield reductions and degraded hay/pasture conditions. During the 2002 drought, Hayes et al. (2004) found that many individual states across the United States experienced more than $1 billion in agriculture losses associated with both crops and livestock. The impact of drought on vegetation can have serious water resource implications as the use of finite surface and groundwater supplies to support agricultural crop production competes against other sectoral water interests (e.g., environmental, commercial, municipal, and recreation). Drought-related vegetation stress can also have various ecological impacts. Prime examples include widespread piñon pine tree die-off in the southwest United States due to protracted severe drought stress and associated bark beetle infestations (Breshears et al., 2005) and the geographic shift of a forest-woodland ecotone in this region in response to severe drought in the mid-1950s (Allen and Breshears, 1998). Tree mortality in response to extended drought periods has also been observed in other parts of the western United States (Guarin and Taylor, 2005), as well as in boreal (Kasischke and Turetsky, 2006), temperate (Fensham and Holman, 1999), and tropical (Williamson et al., 2000) forests. Droughts have also served as a catalyst for changes in wildfire activity (Swetnam and Betancourt, 1998; Westerling et al., 2006) and invasive plant species establishment (Everard et al., 2010)

A Methodology for Flash Drought Identification: Application of Flash Drought Frequency across the United StatesJORDAN

With the increasing use of the term ‘‘flash drought’’ within the scientific community, Otkin et al. provide a general definition that identifies flash droughts based on their unusually rapid rate of intensi- fication. This study presents an objective percentile-based methodology that builds upon that work by identifying flash droughts using standardized evaporative stress ratio (SESR) values and changes in SESR over some period of time. Four criteria are specified to identify flash droughts: two that emphasize the vegetative impacts of flash drought and two that focus on the rapid rate of intensification. The method- ology was applied to the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) to develop a 38-yr flash drought climatology (1979–2016) across the United States. It was found that SESR derived from NARR data compared well with the satellite-based evaporative stress index for four previously identified flash drought events. Furthermore, four additional flash drought cases were compared with the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM), and SESR rapidly declined 1–2 weeks before a response was evident with the USDM. From the climatological analysis, a hot spot of flash drought occurrence was revealed over the Great Plains, the Corn Belt, and the western Great Lakes region. Relatively few flash drought events occurred over mountainous and arid regions. Flash droughts were categorized based on their rate of intensification, and it was found that the most intense flash droughts occurred over the central Great Plains, Corn Belt, and western Great Lakes region

A Methodology for Flash Drought Identification: Application of Flash Drought Frequency across the United States

With the increasing use of the term ‘‘flash drought’’ within the scientific community, Otkin et al. provide a general definition that identifies flash droughts based on their unusually rapid rate of intensification. This study presents an objective percentile-based methodology that builds upon that work by identifying flash droughts using standardized evaporative stress ratio (SESR) values and changes in SESR over some period of time. Four criteria are specified to identify flash droughts: two that emphasize the vegetative impacts of flash drought and two that focus on the rapid rate of intensification. The methodology was applied to the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) to develop a 38-yr flash drought climatology (1979–2016) across the United States. It was found that SESR derived from NARR data compared well with the satellite-based evaporative stress index for four previously identified flash drought events. Furthermore, four additional flash drought cases were compared with the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM), and SESR rapidly declined 1–2 weeks before a response was evident with the USDM. From the climatological analysis, a hot spot of flash drought occurrence was revealed over the Great Plains, the Corn Belt, and the western Great Lakes region. Relatively few flash drought events occurred over mountainous and arid regions. Flash droughts were categorized based on their rate of intensification, and it was found that the most intense flash droughts occurred over the central Great Plains, Corn Belt, and western Great Lakes region

Flight Operations for the LCROSS Lunar Impactor Mission

The LCROSS (Lunar CRater Observation and Sensing Satellite) mission was conceived as a low-cost means of determining the nature of hydrogen concentrated at the polar regions of the moon. Co-manifested for launch with LRO (Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter), LCROSS guided its spent Centaur upper stage into the Cabeus crater as a kinetic impactor, and observed the impact flash and resulting debris plume for signs of water and other compounds from a Shepherding Spacecraft. Led by NASA Ames Research Center, LCROSS flight operations spanned 112 days, from June 18 through October 9, 2009. This paper summarizes the experiences from the LCROSS flight, highlights the challenges faced during the mission, and examines the reasons for its ultimate success