Population Change and Economic Development: Case Studies and Reflections on the Ethiopian Demographic Transition

While population growth has a large negative effect on per capita income growth, this effect is counteracted by large positive effect from growth in the share of the population that is economically active. Thus, the effect of population growth on economic development depends largely on the proportions of the working age and the policy mixes used to encourage people to work, save and invest.    Accordingly, this paper assesses the experiences of representative countries in the world with respect to their population change, policy mixes used and how these impact on their economic developments. The paper is organized into four sections. The first section assesses how population change affects economic developments followed by section 2 presenting selected countries’ case studies to see how their demographic transitions have been proceeding and what policy mixes was used to reap the demographic dividends that the age structure offers.   The third section deals with the discussion of possible lessons learned from those case studies that Ethiopia may consider as benchmarking. The fourth section examines the Ethiopian demographic transitions, the associated policy mixes being implemented and apparent policy effects. The final section concludes the paper

The Impact of Farmer Field School Training on Net Crop Income: Evidence from Smallholder Maize Farmers in Oromia, Ethiopia

This study examines the impact of Farmer Field School (FFS) training program on the net crop income of the smallholder farmers. The FFS program was sponsored by the Ethiopian government and launched in 2010. The study aims to compare the impact of the training on net crop income of those FFS graduate and non-FFS graduate maize farmers in Oromia, Ethiopia. For this, panel data were collected in two rounds from 446 randomly selected households of three districts consisting of 218 FFS graduate farmers and 228 non-FFS graduate farmers. The analytical procedure has involved three stages: in the first stage, descriptive analyses were used to detect existence of difference in the outcome indicators between the two farmer groups. In the second stage, we have applied a semi-parametric impact evaluation method of propensity score matching with several matching algorithms. In the third stage, we have used Difference-in-Difference as robustness check in detecting causality between program intervention and the change in outcome indicators. The result of both PSM and DID estimates shows that net crop income of the FFS graduate farmers was not statistically different from those of non FFS graduates. Accordingly, a number of policy recommendations were also suggested. Keywords: impact evaluation, accounting income, economic income, propensity score matching, difference in differenc

The Impacts of Farmer Field School Training on Knowledge and Farm Technology Adoption: Evidence from Smallholder Maize Farmers in Oromia, Ethiopia

This study examines the impact of Farmer Field School (FFS) training program on farmers’ knowledge and farm technology adoption. The FFS program was sponsored by the Ethiopian government and launched in 2010. The study aims to compare the impact of the training on knowledge and agricultural technology adoption of those FFS graduate and non-FFS graduate maize farmers in Oromia, Ethiopia. For this, data was collected in 2013 from 446 randomly selected households of three districts consisting of 218 FFS graduate farmers and 228 non-FFS graduate farmers. The analytical procedure has involved two stages: in the first stage, descriptive analysis was used to detect existence of difference in the household and farm characteristics of the two groups of farmers. In the second stage, a semi-parametric impact evaluation method of propensity score matching with several matching algorithms was employed to estimate the program impacts. The result reveals that although FFS graduate farmers have relatively higher knowledge test score than the non-FFS gradate farmers, farm technology adoption index of the later farmer group exceeds the former groups. This finding suggests that there is no necessarily linear relationship between increased knowledge and increased technology adoption. This further implies that the mental attitude of the smallholder farmers in study area is not actually shaped by misconceptions of technology as claimed by the Ethiopian government, but rather because of their firm understanding of what works and does not work according to their own realities. The policy implication of this finding is that knowledge can be translated into practices if a set of enabling factors and conditions exist. These factors including farmers’ positive perception of the technology benefits, access to complementary inputs, availability of crop insurance scheme, arrangement of credit facilities and favorable output markets as incentive for adopting full technologies

Does the Declining Share of Agricultural Output in GDP Indicate Structural Transformation? The Case of Ethiopia

It is not uncommon that different government officials and practitioners infer the fallingagricultural share in GDP to the underpinning of structural transformation in an economy. By using variousstudies result and a time series of data spanning from 1981 up to 2017, this paper investigated, whetherthe declining share of agricultural output in GDP is indicating structural transformation or not in Ethiopianeconomy. The study showed that the service is the fastest-growing sector in Ethiopia, and it covers morethan 40% of GDP. The share of agriculture sector was 45% of GDP until 2011, while the industry sector hasbeen stagnating. Thus, it shows how the falling share of the agriculture sector in GDP is being supersededby the service sector. Empirical works also reveal that even though the share of the agricultural sector inGDP is falling, it is the primary source for the overall economic growth of Ethiopia. The share of the ruralpopulation has decreased from 89 percent in 1981 to 80% in the year 2017. So the vast population of thecountry is living in rural areas where agricultural-based activities are common. Lack of labor shift from theagricultural sector to the industrial sector can also be attributed to the insufficient expansion of themodern industrial sector to absorb the growing force labor. Furth more, the demographic transition alsoshowed a relative decline. Since structural transformation involves several interrelated processes, thedeclining share of agriculture output to GDP alone cannot explain the prevalence of structural change; theother processes like; industrialization, urbanization, and demographic transition need to be scrutinize

Organizational innovation in the relationship between total quality management and business financial performance: case of coffee processing firms in Guji zone, Ethiopia

AbstractThe purpose of this study was to investigate the mediation effect of organizational innovation in the relationship between total quality management and business financial performance. The study used a quantitative approach with descriptive and explanatory design. The coffee processing industries were selected based on the type of coffee that they are processing. 334 respondents were involved in the survey using a systematic simple random sampling technique. Descriptive statistical tools frequency distribution, percent, mean and standard deviation were used for analyzing demographic variables. Similarly, the structural equation model was utilized for confirmatory and path analysis. The findings of the study revealed that total quality management has significant and positive effects on business financial performance. Similarly, the results affirmed that organizational innovation partially mediates the relationship between total quality management and business financial performance. The study was limited to the coffee processing industries. Therefore, generalizing the result to other sectors may be questionable and thus, future studies might include other organizations. Similarly, the study was conducted using quantitative data only and further study needs triangulation of results with qualitative data. Overall, the study provided crucial empirical evidence to coffee processing industries, for researchers, academicians and firm managers

Leafy Vegetables under Shade? Performance, Consumer Acceptance, and Nutritional Contribution of Cowpea (<i>Vigna unguiculata</i> (L.) Walp.) Leaves in the Yayu Coffee Forest Biosphere Reserve in Southwest Ethiopia

In rural Ethiopia, people consume mainly cereals and pulses. Integrating vegetables into the multi-storey cropping system of the Yayu Coffee Forest Biosphere Reserve could improve nutritional health while reducing pressure on natural habitats in the biodiversity hotspot. The aim of the study was to assess the performance of cowpea under shade and its consumer acceptance as leafy vegetables. Trials compared continuous harvesting with uprooting, and food preference was tested. A baseline survey was conducted in four villages and revealed that cropping of vegetables in coffee plantations would be adoptable by 17% of farmers. The cumulatively harvested mean leaf yield (18.15 t ha−1) was significantly higher than the leaf yield of the uprooted cowpea (6.56 t ha−1). As many as 41% (52%) of participants liked cowpea dishes (very much). Based on the trial yields and the RDA, a 25 m2 cowpea plot could produce sufficient vitamin A for 2.1–4.6 adults, iron for 0.8–1.7, and vitamin C for 1.3–2.9 adults during six months. Cowpea was successfully cultivated below coffee, yielded most when repeatedly harvested and showed a high acceptance among consumers. The consumption of cowpea leaves from coffee forests could contribute to a balanced diet and improved nutrition