Large deviations for weighted empirical measures arising in importance sampling

Importance sampling is a popular method for efficient computation of various properties of a distribution such as probabilities, expectations, quantiles etc. The output of an importance sampling algorithm can be represented as a weighted empirical measure, where the weights are given by the likelihood ratio between the original distribution and the sampling distribution. In this paper the efficiency of an importance sampling algorithm is studied by means of large deviations for the weighted empirical measure. The main result, which is stated as a Laplace principle for the weighted empirical measure arising in importance sampling, can be viewed as a weighted version of Sanov's theorem. The main theorem is applied to quantify the performance of an importance sampling algorithm over a collection of subsets of a given target set as well as quantile estimates. The analysis yields an estimate of the sample size needed to reach a desired precision as well as of the reduction in cost for importance sampling compared to standard Monte Carlo

Tail probabilities for infinite series of regularly varying random vectors

A random vector $X$ with representation $X=\sum_{j\geq0}A_jZ_j$ is considered. Here, $(Z_j)$ is a sequence of independent and identically distributed random vectors and $(A_j)$ is a sequence of random matrices, `predictable' with respect to the sequence $(Z_j)$. The distribution of $Z_1$ is assumed to be multivariate regular varying. Moment conditions on the matrices $(A_j)$ are determined under which the distribution of $X$ is regularly varying and, in fact, `inherits' its regular variation from that of the $(Z_j)$'s. We compute the associated limiting measure. Examples include linear processes, random coefficient linear processes such as stochastic recurrence equations, random sums and stochastic integrals.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.3150/08-BEJ125 the Bernoulli (http://isi.cbs.nl/bernoulli/) by the International Statistical Institute/Bernoulli Society (http://isi.cbs.nl/BS/bshome.htm

Extremal behavior of stochastic integrals driven by regularly varying L\'{e}vy processes

We study the extremal behavior of a stochastic integral driven by a multivariate L\'{e}vy process that is regularly varying with index $\alpha>0$. For predictable integrands with a finite $(\alpha+\delta)$-moment, for some $\delta>0$, we show that the extremal behavior of the stochastic integral is due to one big jump of the driving L\'{e}vy process and we determine its limit measure associated with regular variation on the space of c\`{a}dl\`{a}g functions.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/009117906000000548 in the Annals of Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aop/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Functional large deviations for multivariate regularly varying random walks

We extend classical results by A. V. Nagaev [Izv. Akad. Nauk UzSSR Ser. Fiz.--Mat. Nauk 6 (1969) 17--22, Theory Probab. Appl. 14 (1969) 51--64, 193--208] on large deviations for sums of i.i.d. regularly varying random variables to partial sum processes of i.i.d. regularly varying vectors. The results are stated in terms of a heavy-tailed large deviation principle on the space of c\`{a}dl\`{a}g functions. We illustrate how these results can be applied to functionals of the partial sum process, including ruin probabilities for multivariate random walks and long strange segments. These results make precise the idea of heavy-tailed large deviation heuristics: in an asymptotic sense, only the largest step contributes to the extremal behavior of a multivariate random walk.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/105051605000000502 in the Annals of Applied Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aap/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Asymptotic behaviour of sampling and transition probabilities in coalescent models under selection and parent dependent mutations

The results in this paper provide new information on asymptotic properties of classical models: the neutral Kingman coalescent under a general finite-alleles, parent-dependent mutation mechanism, and its generalisation, the ancestral selection graph. Several relevant quantities related to these fundamental models are not explicitly known when mutations are parent dependent. Examples include the probability that a sample taken from a population has a certain type configuration, and the transition probabilities of their block counting jump chains. In this paper, asymptotic results are derived for these quantities, as the sample size goes to infinity. It is shown that the sampling probabilities decay polynomially in the sample size with multiplying constant depending on the stationary density of the Wright-Fisher diffusion; and that the transition probabilities converge to the limit of frequencies of types in the sample.Comment: 16 pages. In this revised version the results are generalised to include selectio