The color of sea level: importance of spatial variations in spectral shape for assessing the significance of trends

We investigate spatial variations in the shape of the spectrum of sea level variability, based on a homogeneously-sampled 12-year gridded altimeter dataset. We present a method of plotting spectral information as color, focusing on periods between 2 and 24 weeks, which shows that significant spatial variations in the spectral shape exist, and contain useful dynamical information. Using the Bayesian Information Criterion, we determine that, typically, a 5th order autoregressive model is needed to capture the structure in the spectrum. Using this model, we show that statistical errors in fitted local trends range between less than 1 and more than 5 times what would be calculated assuming “white” noise, and the time needed to detect a 1 mm/yr trend ranges between about 5 years and many decades. For global-mean sea level, the statistical error reduces to 0.1 mm/yr over 12 years, with only 2 years needed to detect a 1 mm/yr trend. We find significant regional differences in trend from the global mean. The patterns of these regional differences are indicative of a sea level trend dominated by dynamical ocean processes, over this perio

WELFARE EFFECTS OF AGRICULTURAL TRADING BLOCS: THE SIMULATION OF A NORTH AMERICAN CUSTOMS UNION

Agricultural trade liberalization among the three North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) signatories is modeled using a political preference function. The model distinguishes among Canada, Mexico, the United States, and a politically passive rest of the world. Through the use of intracountry compensation, the analysis shows that, from an agricultural perspective, economic integration is in the best interest of the group as a whole, although not in the best interest of individual countries. More specifically, of the agricultural production sectors, Canadian dairy, Mexican corn, and U.S. beef producers suffer the greatest losses from the formation of North American customs union.International Relations/Trade,

Comparative costs of the commercial process in different construction procurement methods

The commercial process in construction projects is an expensive and highly variable overhead. Collaborative working practices carry many benefits, which are widely disseminated, but little information is available about their costs. Transaction Cost Economics is a theoretical framework that seeks explanations for why there are firms and how the boundaries of firms are defined through the “make-or-buy” decision. However, it is not a framework that offers explanations for the relative costs of procuring construction projects in different ways. The idea that different methods of procurement will have characteristically different costs is tested by way of a survey. The relevance of transaction cost economics to the study of commercial costs in procurement is doubtful. The survey shows that collaborative working methods cost neither more nor less than traditional methods. But the benefits of collaboration mean that there is a great deal of enthusiasm for collaboration rather than competition

The dollars and sense of bank consolidation

For nearly two decades banks in the United States have consolidated in record numbers--in terms of both frequency and the size of the merging institutions. Rhoades (1996) hypothesizes that the main motivators were increased potential for geographic expansion created by changes in state laws regulating branching and a more favorable antitrust climate. To look for evidence of economic incentives to exploit these improved opportunities for consolidation, the authors examine how consolidation affects expected profit, the riskiness of profit, profit efficiency, market value, market-value efficiencies, and the risk of insolvency. Their estimates of expected profit, profit risk, and profit efficiency are based on a structural model of leveraged portfolio production that was estimated for a sample of highest-level U.S. bank holding companies in Hughes, Lang, Mester, and Moon (1996). Here, the authors also estimate two additional measures that gauge efficiency in terms of the market values of assets and of equity. Their findings suggest that the economic benefits of consolidation are strongest for those banks engaged in interstate expansion and, in particular, interstate expansion that diversifies banks' macroeconomic risk. Not only do these banks experience clear gains in their financial performance, but society also benefits from the enhanced bank safety that follows from this type of consolidation.Bank mergers

Extinction and dust/gas ratio in LMC molecular clouds

Aims. The goal of this paper is to measure the dust content and distribution in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) by comparing extinction maps produced in the near-infrared wavelengths and the spatial distribution of the neutral and molecular gas, as traced by Hi and CO observations. Methods. In order to derive an extinction map of the LMC, we have developed a new method to measure the color excess of dark clouds, using the 2MASS all-sky survey. Classical methods to measure the color excess (including the NICE method) tend to underestimate the true color excess if the clouds are significantly contaminated by unreddened foreground stars, as is the case in the LMC. We propose a new method that uses the color of the X percentile reddest stars and which is robust against such contamination. Using this method, it is possible to infer the positions of dark clouds with respect to the star distribution by comparing the observed color excess as a function of the percentile used and that predicted by a model. Results. On the basis of the resulting extinction map, we perform a correlation analysis for a set of dark molecular clouds. Assuming similar infrared absorption properties for the dust in the neutral and molecular phases, we derive the absorption-to-column density ratio AV/NH and the CO-to-H2 conversion factor X_(CO). We show that AV/NH increases from the outskirts of the LMC towards the 30 Dor star-forming region. This can be explained either by a systematic increase of the dust abundance, or by the presence of an additional gas component not traced by Hi or CO, but strongly correlated to the Hi distribution. If dust abundance is allowed to vary, the derived X_(CO) factors for the selected regions are several times lower than those derived from a virial analysis of the CO data. This could indicate that molecular clouds in the LMC are not gravitationally bound, or that they are bounded by substantial external pressure. However, the X_(CO) values derived from absorption can be reconciled with the virial results assuming a constant value for the dust abundance and the existence of an additional, unseen gas component. These results are in agreement with those derived for the LMC from diffuse far-infrared emission

Sanitizing the fortress: protection of ant brood and nest material by worker antibiotics

Social groups are at particular risk for parasite infection, which is heightened in eusocial insects by the low genetic diversity of individuals within a colony. To combat this, adult ants have evolved a suite of defenses to protect each other, including the production of antimicrobial secretions. However, it is the brood in a colony that are most vulnerable to parasites because their individual defenses are limited, and the nest material in which ants live is also likely to be prone to colonization by potential parasites. Here, we investigate in two ant species whether adult workers use their antimicrobial secretions not only to protect each other but also to sanitize the vulnerable brood and nest material. We find that, in both leaf-cutting ants and weaver ants, the survival of the brood was reduced and the sporulation of parasitic fungi from them increased, when the workers nursing them lacked functional antimicrobial-producing glands. This was the case for both larvae that were experimentally treated with a fungal parasite (Metarhizium) and control larvae which developed infections of an opportunistic fungal parasite (Aspergillus). Similarly, fungi were more likely to grow on the nest material of both ant species if the glands of attending workers were blocked. The results show that the defense of brood and sanitization of nest material are important functions of the antimicrobial secretions of adult ants and that ubiquitous, opportunistic fungi may be a more important driver of the evolution of these defenses than rarer, specialist parasites

Exact moments in a continuous time random walk with complete memory of its history

We present a continuous time generalization of a random walk with complete memory of its history [Phys. Rev. E 70, 045101(R) (2004)] and derive exact expressions for the first four moments of the distribution of displacement when the number of steps is Poisson distributed. We analyze the asymptotic behavior of the normalized third and fourth cumulants and identify new transitions in a parameter regime where the random walk exhibits superdiffusion. These transitions, which are also present in the discrete time case, arise from the memory of the process and are not reproduced by Fokker-Planck approximations to the evolution equation of this random walk.Comment: Revtex4, 10 pages, 2 figures. v2: applications discussed, clarity improved, corrected scaling of third momen