Analysis of Factors Influencing the Lake Area on the Tibetan Plateau Using an Eigenvector Spatial Filtering Based Spatially Varying Coefficient Model

Lakes on the Tibet Plateau (TP) have a significant impact on the water cycle and water balance, and it is important to monitor changes in lake area and identify the influencing factors. Existing research has failed to quantitatively identify the changes and influencing factors of lakes in different regions of the TP. Thus, an eigenvector spatial filtering based spatially varying coefficient (ESF-SVC) model was used to analyze the relationship between lake area and climatic and terrain factors in the inner watershed of the TP from 2000 to 2015. A comparison with ordinary regression and spatial models showed that the ESF-SVC model eliminates spatial autocorrelation and has the best model fit and complexity. The experiments demonstrated that precipitation, snow melt, and permafrost moisture release, as well as the area of vegetation and elevation difference in the watershed, can significantly promote the expansion of lakes, while evapotranspiration and days of mean daily temperature above zero have an inhibitory effect on lake area expansion. The degree of influence of each factor also differs significantly over time and across regions. Spatially quantitative modeling of lake area in the TP using the ESF-SVC method is a new attempt to provide novel ideas for lake research

Using an Eigenvector Spatial Filtering-Based Spatially Varying Coefficient Model to Analyze the Spatial Heterogeneity of COVID-19 and Its Influencing Factors in Mainland China

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to many deaths and economic disruptions across the world. Several studies have examined the effect of corresponding health risk factors in different places, but the problem of spatial heterogeneity has not been adequately addressed. The purpose of this paper was to explore how selected health risk factors are related to the pandemic infection rate within different study extents and to reveal the spatial varying characteristics of certain health risk factors. An eigenvector spatial filtering-based spatially varying coefficient model (ESF-SVC) was developed to find out how the influence of selected health risk factors varies across space and time. The ESF-SVC was able to take good control of over-fitting problems compared with ordinary least square (OLS), eigenvector spatial filtering (ESF) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) models, with a higher adjusted R2 and lower cross validation RMSE. The impact of health risk factors varied as the study extent changed: In Hubei province, only population density and wind speed showed significant spatially constant impact; while in mainland China, other factors including migration score, building density, temperature and altitude showed significant spatially varying impact. The influence of migration score was less contributive and less significant in cities around Wuhan than cities further away, while altitude showed a stronger contribution to the decrease of infection rates in high altitude cities. The temperature showed mixed correlation as time passed, with positive and negative coefficients at 2.42 °C and 8.17 °C, respectively. This study could provide a feasible path to improve the model fit by considering the problem of spatial autocorrelation and heterogeneity that exists in COVID-19 modeling. The yielding ESF-SVC coefficients could also provide an intuitive method for discovering the different impacts of influencing factors across space in large study areas. It is hoped that these findings improve public and governmental awareness of potential health risks and therefore influence epidemic control strategies

Spatial Difference of Transit-Based Accessibility to Hospitals by Regions Using Spatially Adjusted ANOVA

This paper proposes a spatial difference analysis method for evaluating transit-based accessibility to hospitals using spatially adjusted ANOVA. This method specializes in examining spatial variations of accessibility to hospitals by regions (i.e. administrative districts or subdistricts). The spatial lag model is applied to adjust traditional ANOVA, which reduces spatial dependency and avoids false rejection to null hypothesis. Multiple comparison methods are used for further detection of differences in accessibility between regions. After multiple comparison, accessibility within regions is classified into three levels. The study is conducted on two scales—administrative districts and subdistricts—to discuss spatial variations in macro and micro dimensions respectively in the central part of Wuhan, China. Accessibility is calculated by using a simple model and a gravity model. The final classification results showed that the spatially adjusted method is more reliable than the traditional non spatially adjusted one and the gravity model can better detect more hidden information about the inequal distribution of medical resources. It is also found that the subdistricts, which have significantly lower accessibility to hospitals than others, are mainly distributed in Hongshan and Qingshan district. Our study hopes to shed new lights in spatial difference analysis for accessibility and provide policy recommendations that would promote equality in provisions of public health services

Using an Eigenvector Spatial Filtering-Based Spatially Varying Coefficient Model to Analyze the Spatial Heterogeneity of COVID-19 and Its Influencing Factors in Mainland China

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to many deaths and economic disruptions across the world. Several studies have examined the effect of corresponding health risk factors in different places, but the problem of spatial heterogeneity has not been adequately addressed. The purpose of this paper was to explore how selected health risk factors are related to the pandemic infection rate within different study extents and to reveal the spatial varying characteristics of certain health risk factors. An eigenvector spatial filtering-based spatially varying coefficient model (ESF-SVC) was developed to find out how the influence of selected health risk factors varies across space and time. The ESF-SVC was able to take good control of over-fitting problems compared with ordinary least square (OLS), eigenvector spatial filtering (ESF) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) models, with a higher adjusted R2 and lower cross validation RMSE. The impact of health risk factors varied as the study extent changed: In Hubei province, only population density and wind speed showed significant spatially constant impact; while in mainland China, other factors including migration score, building density, temperature and altitude showed significant spatially varying impact. The influence of migration score was less contributive and less significant in cities around Wuhan than cities further away, while altitude showed a stronger contribution to the decrease of infection rates in high altitude cities. The temperature showed mixed correlation as time passed, with positive and negative coefficients at 2.42 °C and 8.17 °C, respectively. This study could provide a feasible path to improve the model fit by considering the problem of spatial autocorrelation and heterogeneity that exists in COVID-19 modeling. The yielding ESF-SVC coefficients could also provide an intuitive method for discovering the different impacts of influencing factors across space in large study areas. It is hoped that these findings improve public and governmental awareness of potential health risks and therefore influence epidemic control strategies

Estimating Regional PM_2.5 Concentrations in China Using a Global-Local Regression Model Considering Global Spatial Autocorrelation and Local Spatial Heterogeneity

Linear regression models are commonly used for estimating ground PM2.5 concentrations, but the global spatial autocorrelation and local spatial heterogeneity of PM2.5 distribution are either ignored or only partially considered in commonly used models for estimating PM2.5 concentrations. Therefore, taking both global spatial autocorrelation and local spatial heterogeneity into consideration, a global-local regression (GLR) model is proposed for estimating ground PM2.5 concentrations in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) and in the Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei (BTH) regions of China based on the aerosol optical depth data, meteorological data, remote sensing data, and pollution source data. Considering the global spatial autocorrelation, the GLR model extracts global factors by the eigenvector spatial filtering (ESF) method, and combines the fraction of them that passes further filtering with the geographically weighted regression (GWR) method to address the local spatial heterogeneity. Comprehensive results show that the GLR model outperforms the ordinary GWR and ESF models, and the GLR model has the best performance at the monthly, seasonal, and annual levels. The average adjusted R2 of the monthly GLR model in the YRD region (the BTH region) is 0.620 (0.853), which is 8.0% and 7.4% (6.8% and 7.0%) higher than that of the monthly ESF and GWR models, respectively. The average cross-validation root mean square error of the monthly GLR model is 7.024 μg/m3 in the YRD region, and 9.499 μg/m3 in the BTH region, which is lower than that of the ESF and GWR models. The GLR model can effectively address the spatial autocorrelation and spatial heterogeneity, and overcome the shortcoming of the ordinary GWR model that overfocuses on local features and the disadvantage of the poor local performance of the ordinary ESF model. Overall, the GLR model with good spatial and temporal applicability is a promising method for estimating PM2.5 concentrations

Flood Risk Evaluation in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Based on Eigenvector Spatial Filtering Poisson Regression

A Poisson regression based on eigenvector spatial filtering (ESF) is proposed to evaluate the flood risk in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River in China. Regression analysis is employed to model the relationship between the frequency of flood alarming events observed by hydrological stations and hazard-causing factors from 2005 to 2012. Eight factors, including elevation (ELE), slope (SLO), elevation standard deviation (ESD), river density (DEN), distance to mainstream (DIST), NDVI, annual mean rainfall (RAIN), mean annual maximum of three-day accumulated precipitation (ACC) and frequency of extreme rainfall (EXE) are selected and integrated into a GIS environment for the identification of flood-prone basins. ESF-based Poisson regression (ESFPS) can filter out the spatial autocorrelation. The methodology includes construction of a spatial weight matrix, testing of spatial autocorrelation, decomposition of eigenvectors, stepwise selection of eigenvectors and calculation of regression coefficients. Compared with the pseudo R squared obtained by PS (0.56), ESFPS exhibits better fitness with a value of 0.78, which increases by approximately 39.3%. ESFPS identifies six significant factors including ELE, DEN, EXE, DIST, ACC and NDVI, in which ACC and NDVI are the first two main factors. The method can provide decision support for flood risk relief and hydrologic station planning