Spatiotemporal patterns and predictability of cyberattacks

A relatively unexplored issue in cybersecurity science and engineering is whether there exist intrinsic patterns of cyberattacks. Conventional wisdom favors absence of such patterns due to the overwhelming complexity of the modern cyberspace. Surprisingly, through a detailed analysis of an extensive data set that records the time-dependent frequencies of attacks over a relatively wide range of consecutive IP addresses, we successfully uncover intrinsic spatiotemporal patterns underlying cyberattacks, where the term "spatio" refers to the IP address space. In particular, we focus on analyzing {\em macroscopic} properties of the attack traffic flows and identify two main patterns with distinct spatiotemporal characteristics: deterministic and stochastic. Strikingly, there are very few sets of major attackers committing almost all the attacks, since their attack "fingerprints" and target selection scheme can be unequivocally identified according to the very limited number of unique spatiotemporal characteristics, each of which only exists on a consecutive IP region and differs significantly from the others. We utilize a number of quantitative measures, including the flux-fluctuation law, the Markov state transition probability matrix, and predictability measures, to characterize the attack patterns in a comprehensive manner. A general finding is that the attack patterns possess high degrees of predictability, potentially paving the way to anticipating and, consequently, mitigating or even preventing large-scale cyberattacks using macroscopic approaches

On the exactness of soft theorems

Soft behaviours of S-matrix for massless theories reflect the underlying symmetry principle that enforces its masslessness. As an expansion in soft momenta, sub-leading soft theorems can arise either due to (I) unique structure of the fundamental vertex or (II) presence of enhanced broken-symmetries. While the former is expected to be modified by infrared or ultraviolet divergences, the latter should remain exact to all orders in perturbation theory. Using current algebra, we clarify such distinction for spontaneously broken (super) Poincar\'e and (super) conformal symmetry. We compute the UV divergences of DBI, conformal DBI, and A-V theory to verify the exactness of type (II) soft theorems, while type (I) are shown to be broken and the soft-modifying higher-dimensional operators are identified. As further evidence for the exactness of type (II) soft theorems, we consider the alpha' expansion of both super and bosonic open strings amplitudes, and verify the validity of the translation symmetry breaking soft-theorems up to O(alpha'^6). Thus the massless S-matrix of string theory "knows" about the presence of D-branes.Comment: 35 pages. Additional mathematica note book with the UV-divergenece of the 6-point amplitude in AV/KS theor