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Forecasting the demand for health tourism in Asian countries using a GM(1,1)-alpha model

The purpose – Accurately forecasting the demand for international health tourism is important to newly-emerging markets in the world. The aim of this study was presents a more suitable and accurate model for forecasting the demand for health tourism that should be more theoretically useful. Design – Applying GM(1,1) with adaptive levels of α (hereafter GM(1,1)-α model) to provide a concise prediction model that will improve the ability to forecast the demand for health tourism in Asian countries. Methodology – In order to verify the feasibility of the proposed approach, using available secondary and primary data covering the period from 2002 through 2009 obtained from the RNCOS “Opportunities in Asian Health tourism” report. Based on a unique and characteristics database for the health tourism industry, this study applies the adaptive α in a Grey forecasting model (GM(1,1)-α) to predict the demand for health tourism in Asian countries. Approach – Implementation of demand forecasting in health tourism is examined on the short-term and limited dataset, due to importance of a minimum the predicated error on underlying basis for the econometric model for health tourism markets. Findings – Key findings present that the optimal value of α in GM(1,1) can minimize the predicted error. Finally, in the case of the demand for health tourism in Asian countries, using GM(1,1)-α to predict error is clearly better than the use of the original GM(1,1) and time series models. The originality of this research – The originality comes from the analysis of the demand forecasting in health tourism of Asian countries, which provides an easy and accurate method to predict the demand for health medical tourism and ideas for further improvements in the sector of health tourism

Comparison of thermodynamic behaviors of two regular-AdS black holes

Considering the negative cosmological constant of an anti-de Sitter (AdS) background as a positive thermodynamic pressure in the extended phase space, we study the thermodynamic behaviors of the regular Hayward-AdS (HAdS) black hole (BH) by investigating $P-\upsilon$ critical and cooling-heating phase transition. We compare the difference of two thermodynamic processes between the HAdS BH and the Bardeen-AdS (BAdS) BH. It is found that the phase transition of the BAdS BH tends to be more the van der Waals (vdW) phase transition. For the cooling-heating phase transition, we find the inversion curves of the HAdS BH are always higher than the BAdS BH under the same pressure and magnetic charge. We also compare the smallest existence mass, the zero-temperature remnant, and the critical magnetic charge. The results suggest that the inner horizon and the outer horizon of the Hayward BH are easier to merge, and the singularity is easier to expose.Comment: 11 pages, 5 figure

Does Hot Money Impact Stock And Exchange Rate Markets On China?

d the returns and volatility spillover between the stock and exchange rate market in China by using the monthly data covering the period from July 2005 to June 2013. This paper also uses the quantile approach to determine whether the hot money influences the stock and exchange rate markets. The results frst reveal the long-run equilibrium relationship that is exhibited between the stock and exchange rate market. Second, hot money has an impact on the stock market but has no effect on the exchange rate market, according to the VECMBEKK model. Third, regarding the volatility spillover effects on the stock and exchange rate markets, there is a spillover effect on the Shanghai stock and exchange rate markets. Hot money has an impact on the stock and exchange rate markets. Finally, we apply the quantile regression to determine the impact of hot money on low quantiles of the exchange rate and high quantiles of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock marke

Urban–rural difference in the costs of disability and its effects on poverty among people with disabilities in China

The urban–rural difference in poverty is an important issue in China, particularly for people with disabilities. The extra costs of disability render this population susceptible to falling into poverty, where this can exacerbate the inequality among people with disabilities between urban and rural areas of the country. Previous studies have provided empirical evidence for the extra costs of disabilities in certain countries, but little scholarly attention has been devoted to the urban–rural gap in the costs of disability, particularly in countries like China that have a dual urban–rural system. This study explores changes in the extra costs of disability in China between urban and rural households with disabled members from 2008 to 2018 by using the standard of living approach. We apply the Foster–Greer–Thorbecke Poverty Index to measure the rates of poverty in urban and rural households with disabilities after considering the costs of disability. The results reveal that the costs of disability were not always lower for rural households than for urban households. At the same time, many rural households with disabled people were found to suffer from severe poverty owing to the high costs of their disabilities. The difference in health insurance and rehabilitation services between urban and rural China have led to an urban-rural gap in the costs of disability. This suggests that supplying more goods and services for disabled people in rural areas, especially free services, and raising the reimbursement due to them from their health insurance can help improve their standard of living

Market promotion of paid socket: A feasiblility analysis

This study analyzed an innovation product i.e. paid socket, not on the market yet, and aimed at the feasibility analysis of paid socket market. We used survey method to investigate the end users. Firstly, in view of the "public", we surveyed people about what factors affecting the consumers' willingness to use this socket. The Second part was to understand merchants' ideas about the socket by in-depth interviews. Through SEM analysis, we found that safety and environmental friendliness are two important factors for the users to use the socket, and through in-depth interviews, we found the "installation convenience" and "marketing activities" are most considered by the stores. The implication of the results show that business opportunities behind the paid socket are large, whether in public area or stores , and the viewpoints of using the paid socket were different. Enhanced design and development of the socket could solve the two sides' problems and meet needs of the public and merchants by recovering the cost and expending marketing spots. Consumers didn't have to spend a lot of money to enjoy convenience, fairness and justice caused by paid sockets

Bacteria in the apical root canals of teeth with apical periodontitis

Background/PurposeBacteria in the tooth root canal may cause apical periodontitis. This study examined the bacterial species present in the apical root canal of teeth with apical periodontitis. Antibiotic sensitivity tests were performed to evaluate whether these identified bacterial species were susceptible to specific kinds of antibiotics.MethodsSelective media plating and biochemical tests were used first to detect the bacterial species in samples taken from the apical portion of root canals of 62 teeth with apical periodontitis. The isolated bacterial species were further confirmed by matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization-time of flight mass spectrometry.ResultsWe found concomitant presence of two (32 teeth) or three species (18 teeth) of bacteria in 50 (80.6%) out of 62 tested teeth. However, only 34 bacterial species were identified. Of a total of 118 bacterial isolates (83 anaerobes and 35 aerobes), Prophyromonas endodontalis was detected in 10; Bacteroides, Dialister invisus or Fusobacterium nucleatum in 9; Treponema denticola or Enterococcus faecalis in 8; Peptostreptococcus or Olsenella uli in 6; and Veillonella in 5 teeth. The other 25 bacterial species were detected in fewer than five teeth. Approximately 80–95% of bacterial isolates of anaerobes were sensitive to ampicillin/sulbactam (Unasyn), amoxicillin/clavulanate (Augmentin), cefoxitin, and clindamycin. For E. faecalis, 85–90% of bacterial isolates were sensitive to gentamicin and linezolid.ConclusionRoot canal infections are usually caused by a mixture of two or three species of bacteria. Specific kinds of antibiotic can be selected to control these bacterial infections after antibiotic sensitivity testing

2-(Carbazol-9-yl)acetic acid

In the title compound, C14H11NO2, the tricyclic aromatic ring system is essentially planar [maximum deviation = 0.025 (2) Å]. The dihedral angle between the two benzene rings is 2.8 (5)°, while the carboxyl group forms a dihedral angle of 88.5 (1)° with the pyrrole ring. Inter­molecular O—H⋯O hydrogen bonds may contribute to the overall stabilization of the crystal structure