Utility maximization in incomplete markets

We consider the problem of utility maximization for small traders on incomplete financial markets. As opposed to most of the papers dealing with this subject, the investors' trading strategies we allow underly constraints described by closed, but not necessarily convex, sets. The final wealths obtained by trading under these constraints are identified as stochastic processes which usually are supermartingales, and even martingales for particular strategies. These strategies are seen to be optimal, and the corresponding value functions determined simply by the initial values of the supermartingales. We separately treat the cases of exponential, power and logarithmic utility.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/105051605000000188 in the Annals of Applied Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aap/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

A Unified Analysis of Stochastic Optimization Methods Using Jump System Theory and Quadratic Constraints

We develop a simple routine unifying the analysis of several important recently-developed stochastic optimization methods including SAGA, Finito, and stochastic dual coordinate ascent (SDCA). First, we show an intrinsic connection between stochastic optimization methods and dynamic jump systems, and propose a general jump system model for stochastic optimization methods. Our proposed model recovers SAGA, SDCA, Finito, and SAG as special cases. Then we combine jump system theory with several simple quadratic inequalities to derive sufficient conditions for convergence rate certifications of the proposed jump system model under various assumptions (with or without individual convexity, etc). The derived conditions are linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) whose sizes roughly scale with the size of the training set. We make use of the symmetry in the stochastic optimization methods and reduce these LMIs to some equivalent small LMIs whose sizes are at most 3 by 3. We solve these small LMIs to provide analytical proofs of new convergence rates for SAGA, Finito and SDCA (with or without individual convexity). We also explain why our proposed LMI fails in analyzing SAG. We reveal a key difference between SAG and other methods, and briefly discuss how to extend our LMI analysis for SAG. An advantage of our approach is that the proposed analysis can be automated for a large class of stochastic methods under various assumptions (with or without individual convexity, etc).Comment: To Appear in Proceedings of the Annual Conference on Learning Theory (COLT) 201

Nonstationary Discrete Choice

This paper develops an asymptotic theory for time series discrete choice models with explanatory variables generated as integrated processes and with multiple choices and threshold parameters determining the choices. The theory extends recent work by Park and Phillips (2000) on binary choice models. As in this earlier work, the maximum likelihood (ML) estimator is consistent and has a limit theory with multiple rates of convergence (n^{3/4} and n^{1/4}) and mixture normal distributions where the mixing variates depend on Brownian local time as well as Brownian motion. An extended arc sine limit law is given for the sample proportions of the various choices. The new limit law exhibits a wider range of potential behavior that depends on the values taken by the threshold parameters.Brownian motion, Brownian local time, Discrete choice model, Dual convergence rates, Extended arc sine laws, Integrated time series, Maximum likelihood estimation, Threshold parameters