A Bayesian marked spatial point processes model for basketball shot chart

The success rate of a basketball shot may be higher at locations where a player makes more shots. For a marked spatial point process, this means that the mark and the intensity are associated. We propose a Bayesian joint model for the mark and the intensity of marked point processes, where the intensity is incorporated in the mark model as a covariate. Inferences are done with a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Two Bayesian model comparison criteria, the Deviance Information Criterion and the Logarithm of the Pseudo-Marginal Likelihood, were used to assess the model. The performances of the proposed methods were examined in extensive simulation studies. The proposed methods were applied to the shot charts of four players (Curry, Harden, Durant, and James) in the 2017--2018 regular season of the National Basketball Association to analyze their shot intensity in the field and the field goal percentage in detail. Application to the top 50 most frequent shooters in the season suggests that the field goal percentage and the shot intensity are positively associated for a majority of the players. The fitted parameters were used as inputs in a secondary analysis to cluster the players into different groups

Density and Distribution Evaluation for Convolution of Independent Gamma Variables

Several numerical evaluations of the density and distribution of convolution of independent gamma variables are compared in their accuracy and speed. In application to renewal processes, an efficient formula is derived for the probability mass function of the event count

A Broad and General Sequential Sampling Scheme

In this paper, we propose a broad and general sequential sampling scheme, which incorporates four different types of sampling procedures: i) the classic Anscombe-Chow-Robbins purely sequential sampling procedure; ii) the ordinary accelerated sequential sampling procedure; iii) the relatively new k-at-a-time purely sequential sampling procedure; iv) the new k-at-a-time improved accelerated sequential sampling procedure. The first-order and second-order properties of this general sequential sampling scheme are fully investigated with two illustrations on minimum risk point estimation for the mean of a normal distribution and on bounded variance point estimation for the location parameter of a negative exponential distribution, respectively. We also provide extensive computational simulation studies and real data analyses for each illustration

Achieving Covert Wireless Communications Using a Full-Duplex Receiver

Covert communications hide the transmission of a message from a watchful adversary while ensuring a certain decoding performance at the receiver. In this work, a wireless communication system under fading channels is considered where covertness is achieved by using a full-duplex (FD) receiver. More precisely, the receiver of covert information generates artificial noise with a varying power causing uncertainty at the adversary, Willie, regarding the statistics of the received signals. Given that Willie's optimal detector is a threshold test on the received power, we derive a closed-form expression for the optimal detection performance of Willie averaged over the fading channel realizations. Furthermore, we provide guidelines for the optimal choice of artificial noise power range, and the optimal transmission probability of covert information to maximize the detection errors at Willie. Our analysis shows that the transmission of artificial noise, although causes self-interference, provides the opportunity of achieving covertness but its transmit power levels need to be managed carefully. We also demonstrate that the prior transmission probability of 0.5 is not always the best choice for achieving the maximum possible covertness, when the covert transmission probability and artificial noise power can be jointly optimized.Comment: 13 pages, 11 figures, Accepted for publication in IEEE Transactions on Wireless Communication

Heterogeneity Pursuit for Spatial Point Pattern with Application to Tree Locations: A Bayesian Semiparametric Recourse

Spatial point pattern data are routinely encountered. A flexible regression model for the underlying intensity is essential to characterizing the spatial point pattern and understanding the impacts of potential risk factors on such pattern. We propose a Bayesian semiparametric regression model where the observed spatial points follow a spatial Poisson process with an intensity function which adjusts a nonparametric baseline intensity with multiplicative covariate effects. The baseline intensity is piecewise constant, approached with a powered Chinese restaurant process prior which prevents an unnecessarily large number of pieces. The parametric regression part allows for variable selection through the spike-slab prior on the regression coefficients. An efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is developed for the proposed methods. The performance of the methods is validated in an extensive simulation study. In application to the locations of Beilschmiedia pendula trees in the Barro Colorado Island forest dynamics research plot in central Panama, the spatial heterogeneity is attributed to a subset of soil measurements in addition to geographic measurements with a spatially varying baseline intensity.Comment: 21 pages, 7 figure