Merging multiple precipitation sources for flash flood forecasting

We investigated the effectiveness of combining gauge observations and satellite-derived precipitation on flood forecasting. Two data merging processes were proposed: the first one assumes that the individual precipitation measurement is non-bias, while the second process assumes that each precipitation source is biased and both weighting factor and bias parameters are to be calculated. Best weighting factors as well as the bias parameters were calculated by minimizing the error of hourly runoff prediction over Wu-Tu watershed in Taiwan. To simulate the hydrologic response from various sources of rainfall sequences, in our experiment, a recurrent neural network (RNN) model was used. The results demonstrate that the merged method used in this study can efficiently combine the information from both rainfall sources to improve the accuracy of flood forecasting during typhoon periods. The contribution of satellite-based rainfall, being represented by the weighting factor, to the merging product, however, is highly related to the effectiveness of ground-based rainfall observation provided gauged. As the number of gauge observations in the basin is increased, the effectiveness of satellite-based observation to the merged rainfall is reduced. This is because the gauge measurements provide sufficient information for flood forecasting; as a result the improvements added on satellite-based rainfall are limited. This study provides a potential advantage for extending satellite-derived precipitation to those watersheds where gauge observations are limited. © 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

Watershed rainfall forecasting using neuro-fuzzy networks with the assimilation of multi-sensor information

The complex temporal heterogeneity of rainfall coupled with mountainous physiographic context makes a great challenge in the development of accurate short-term rainfall forecasts. This study aims to explore the effectiveness of multiple rainfall sources (gauge measurement, and radar and satellite products) for assimilation-based multi-sensor precipitation estimates and make multi-step-ahead rainfall forecasts based on the assimilated precipitation. Bias correction procedures for both radar and satellite precipitation products were first built, and the radar and satellite precipitation products were generated through the Quantitative Precipitation Estimation and Segregation Using Multiple Sensors (QPESUMS) and the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS), respectively. Next, the synthesized assimilated precipitation was obtained by merging three precipitation sources (gauges, radars and satellites) according to their individual weighting factors optimized by nonlinear search methods. Finally, the multi-step-ahead rainfall forecasting was carried out by using the adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). The Shihmen Reservoir watershed in northern Taiwan was the study area, where 641 hourly data sets of thirteen historical typhoon events were collected. Results revealed that the bias adjustments in QPESUMS and PERSIANN-CCS products did improve the accuracy of these precipitation products (in particular, 30-60% improvement rates for the QPESUMS, in terms of RMSE), and the adjusted PERSIANN-CCS and QPESUMS individually provided about 10% and 24% contribution accordingly to the assimilated precipitation. As far as rainfall forecasting is concerned, the results demonstrated that the ANFIS fed with the assimilated precipitation provided reliable and stable forecasts with the correlation coefficients higher than 0.85 and 0.72 for one- and two-hour-ahead rainfall forecasting, respectively. The obtained forecasting results are very valuable information for the flood warning in the study watershed during typhoon periods. © 2013 Elsevier B.V

Maximal Spontaneous Photon Emission and Energy Loss from Free Electrons

Free electron radiation such as Cerenkov, Smith--Purcell, and transition radiation can be greatly affected by structured optical environments, as has been demonstrated in a variety of polaritonic, photonic-crystal, and metamaterial systems. However, the amount of radiation that can ultimately be extracted from free electrons near an arbitrary material structure has remained elusive. Here we derive a fundamental upper limit to the spontaneous photon emission and energy loss of free electrons, regardless of geometry, which illuminates the effects of material properties and electron velocities. We obtain experimental evidence for our theory with quantitative measurements of Smith--Purcell radiation. Our framework allows us to make two predictions. One is a new regime of radiation operation---at subwavelength separations, slower (nonrelativistic) electrons can achieve stronger radiation than fast (relativistic) electrons. The second is a divergence of the emission probability in the limit of lossless materials. We further reveal that such divergences can be approached by coupling free electrons to photonic bound states in the continuum (BICs). Our findings suggest that compact and efficient free-electron radiation sources from microwaves to the soft X-ray regime may be achievable without requiring ultrahigh accelerating voltages.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figure

Emotional Fuzzy Sliding-Mode Control for Unknown Nonlinear Systems

[[abstract]]The brain emotional learning model can be implemented with a simple hardware and processor; however, the learning model cannot model the qualitative aspects of human knowledge. To solve this problem, a fuzzy-based emotional learning model (FELM) with structure and parameter learning is proposed. The membership functions and fuzzy rules can be learned through the derived learning scheme. Further, an emotional fuzzy sliding-mode control (EFSMC) system, which does not need the plant model, is proposed for unknown nonlinear systems. The EFSMC system is applied to an inverted pendulum and a chaotic synchronization. The simulation results with the use of EFSMC system demonstrate the feasibility of FELM learning procedure. The main contributions of this paper are (1) the FELM varies its structure dynamically with a simple computation; (2) the parameter learning imitates the role of emotions in mammalians brain; (3) by combining the advantage of nonsingular terminal sliding-mode control, the EFSMC system provides very high precision and finite-time control performance; (4) the system analysis is given in the sense of the gradient descent method.[[notice]]補正完

A family case of fertile human 45,X,psu dic(15;Y) males

We report on a familial case including four male probands from three generations with a 45,X,psu dic(15;Y)(p11.2;q12) karyotype. 45,X is usually associated with a female phenotype and only rarely with maleness, due to translocation of small Y chromosomal fragments to autosomes. These male patients are commonly infertile because of missing azoospermia factor regions from the Y long arm. In our familial case we found a pseudodicentric translocation chromosome, that contains almost the entire chromosomes 15 and Y. The translocation took place in an unknown male ancestor of our probands and has no apparent effect on fertility and phenotype of the carrier. FISH analysis demonstrated the deletion of the pseudoautosomal region 2 (PAR2) from the Y chromosome and the loss of the nucleolus organizing region (NOR) from chromosome 15. The formation of the psu dic(15;Y) chromosome is a reciprocal event to the formation of the satellited Y chromosome (Yqs). Statistically, the formation of 45,X,psu dic(15;Y) (p11.2;q12) is as likely as the formation of Yqs. Nevertheless, it has not been described yet. This can be explained by the dicentricity of this translocation chromosome that usually leads to mitotic instability and meiotic imbalances. A second event, a stable inactivation of one of the two centromeres is obligatory to enable the transmission of the translocation chromosome and thus a stably reduced chromosome number from father to every son in this family

Independent position correction on tumor and lymph nodes; consequences for bladder cancer irradiation with two combined IMRT plans

Abstract Background The application of lipiodol injections as markers around bladder tumors combined with the use of CBCT for image guidance enables daily on-line position correction based on the position of the bladder tumor. However, this might introduce the risk of underdosing the pelvic lymph nodes. In this study several correction strategies were compared. Methods For this study set-up errors and tumor displacements for ten complete treatments were generated; both were based on the data of 10 bladder cancer patients. Besides, two IMRT plans were made for 20 patients, one for the elective field and a boost plan for the tumor. For each patient 10 complete treatments were simulated. For each treatment the dose was calculated without position correction (option 1), correction on bony anatomy (option 2), on tumor only (option 3) and separately on bone for the elective field (option 4). For each method we analyzed the D99% for the tumor, bladder and lymph nodes and the V95% for the small intestines, rectum, healthy part of the bladder and femoral heads. Results CTV coverage was significantly lower with options 1 and 2. With option 3 the tumor coverage was not significantly different from the treatment plan. The ΔD99% (D99%, option n - D99%, treatment plan) for option 4 was small, but significant. For the lymph nodes the results from option 1 differed not significantly from the treatment plan. The median ΔD99% of the other options were small, but significant. ΔD99% for PTVbladder was small for options 1, 2 and 4, but decreased up to -8.5 Gy when option 3 was applied. Option 4 is the only method where the difference with the treatment plan never exceeds 2 Gy. The V95% for the rectum, femoral heads and small intestines was small in the treatment plan and this remained so after applying the correction options, indicating that no additional hot spots occurred. Conclusions Applying independent position correction on bone for the elective field and on tumor for the boost separately gives on average the best target coverage, without introducing additional hot spots in the healthy tissue.</p

Fiber Beam Analysis of Reinforced Concrete Members with Cyclic Constitutive and Material Laws

This paper presents a non-linear Timoshenko beam element with axial, bending, and shear force interaction for nonlinear analysis of reinforced concrete structures. The structural material tangent stiffness matrix, which relates the increments of load to corresponding increments of displacement, is properly formulated. Appropriate simplified cyclic uniaxial constitutive laws are developed for cracked concrete in compression and tension. The model also includes the softening effect of the concrete due to lateral tensile strain. To establish the validity of the proposed model, correlation studies with experimentally-tested concrete specimens have been conducted

A Tree-structure Convolutional Neural Network for Temporal Features Exaction on Sensor-based Multi-resident Activity Recognition

With the propagation of sensor devices applied in smart home, activity recognition has ignited huge interest and most existing works assume that there is only one habitant. While in reality, there are generally multiple residents at home, which brings greater challenge to recognize activities. In addition, many conventional approaches rely on manual time series data segmentation ignoring the inherent characteristics of events and their heuristic hand-crafted feature generation algorithms are difficult to exploit distinctive features to accurately classify different activities. To address these issues, we propose an end-to-end Tree-Structure Convolutional neural network based framework for Multi-Resident Activity Recognition (TSC-MRAR). First, we treat each sample as an event and obtain the current event embedding through the previous sensor readings in the sliding window without splitting the time series data. Then, in order to automatically generate the temporal features, a tree-structure network is designed to derive the temporal dependence of nearby readings. The extracted features are fed into the fully connected layer, which can jointly learn the residents labels and the activity labels simultaneously. Finally, experiments on CASAS datasets demonstrate the high performance in multi-resident activity recognition of our model compared to state-of-the-art techniques.Comment: 12 pages, 4 figure

Superficial simplicity of the 2010 El Mayor–Cucapah earthquake of Baja California in Mexico

The geometry of faults is usually thought to be more complicated at the surface than at depth and to control the initiation, propagation and arrest of seismic ruptures. The fault system that runs from southern California into Mexico is a simple strike-slip boundary: the west side of California and Mexico moves northwards with respect to the east. However, the M_w 7.2 2010 El Mayor–Cucapah earthquake on this fault system produced a pattern of seismic waves that indicates a far more complex source than slip on a planar strike-slip fault. Here we use geodetic, remote-sensing and seismological data to reconstruct the fault geometry and history of slip during this earthquake. We find that the earthquake produced a straight 120-km-long fault trace that cut through the Cucapah mountain range and across the Colorado River delta. However, at depth, the fault is made up of two different segments connected by a small extensional fault. Both segments strike N130° E, but dip in opposite directions. The earthquake was initiated on the connecting extensional fault and 15 s later ruptured the two main segments with dominantly strike-slip motion. We show that complexities in the fault geometry at depth explain well the complex pattern of radiated seismic waves. We conclude that the location and detailed characteristics of the earthquake could not have been anticipated on the basis of observations of surface geology alone

Association between free testosterone levels and anal human papillomavirus Types 16/18 infections in a cohort of men who have sex with men

Background Human papillomavirus (HPV) types 16 and 18 cause invasive cervical cancer and most invasive anal cancers (IACs). Overall, IAC rates are highest among men who have sex with men (MSM), especially MSM with HIV infection. Testosterone is prescribed for men showing hypogonadism and HIV-related wasting. While there are direct and indirect physiological effects of testosterone in males, its role in anal HPV16/18 infections in men is unknown. Methods Free testosterone (FT) was measured in serum from 340 Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS) participants who were tested for anal HPV16/18-DNA approximately 36 months later. The effect of log10-transformed current FT level on anal HPV16/18 prevalence was modeled using Poisson regression with robust error variance. Multivariate models controlled for other HPV types, cumulative years of exogenous testosterone use, race, age, lifetime number of receptive anal intercourse partnerships, body mass index, tobacco smoking, HIV-infection and CD4+ T-cell counts among HIV-infected, and blood draw timing. Results Participants were, on average, 60 (+5.4) years of age, White (86%), and HIV-uninfected (56%); Twenty-four percent tested positive for anal HPV16 and/or 18-DNA (HPV16 prevalence= 17.1%, HPV18=9.1%). In adjusted analysis, each half-log10 increase of FT was associated with a 1.9-fold (95% Confidence Interval: 1.11, 3.24) higher HPV16/18 prevalence. Additionally, other Group 1 high-risk HPVs were associated with a 1.56-fold (1.03, 2.37) higher HPV16/18 prevalence. Traditional risk factors for HPV16/18 infection (age, tobacco smoking; lifetime number of sexual partners, including the number of receptive anal intercourse partnerships within 24 months preceding HPV testing) were poorly correlated with one another and not statistically significantly associated with higher prevalence of HPV16/ 18 infection in unadjusted and adjusted analyses. Conclusions Higher free testosterone was associated with increased HPV16/18 prevalence measured approximately three years later, independent of sexual behavior and other potential confounders. The mechanisms underlying this association remain unclear and warrant further study