Reexamining the profitability of technical analysis with data snooping checks

In this article we reexamine the profitability of technical analysis using White's reality check and Hansen's SPA test that correct the data snooping bias. Compared to previous studies, we study a more complete "universes" of trading techniques, including not only simple rules but also complex trading strategies, and we test the profitability of these rules and strategies with four main indices. It is found that significantly profitable simple rules and complex trading strategies do exist in the data from relatively "young" markets (NASDAQ Composite and Russell 2000) but not in the data from relatively "mature" markets [Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and S&P 500]. Moreover, after taking transaction costs into account, we find that the best rules for NASDAQ Composite and Russell 2000 outperform the buy-and-hold strategy in most in- and out-of-sample periods. It is also found that complex trading strategies are able to improve on the profits of simple rules and may even generate significant profits from unprofitable simple rules. © The Author 2005. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.preprin

Spontaneous time reversal symmetry breaking in the pseudogap state of high-Tc superconductors

When matter undergoes a phase transition from one state to another, usually a change in symmetry is observed, as some of the symmetries exhibited are said to be spontaneously broken. The superconducting phase transition in the underdoped high-Tc superconductors is rather unusual, in that it is not a mean-field transition as other superconducting transitions are. Instead, it is observed that a pseudo-gap in the electronic excitation spectrum appears at temperatures T* higher than Tc, while phase coherence, and superconductivity, are established at Tc (Refs. 1, 2). One would then wish to understand if T* is just a crossover, controlled by fluctuations in order which will set in at the lower Tc (Refs. 3, 4), or whether some symmetry is spontaneously broken at T* (Refs. 5-10). Here, using angle-resolved photoemission with circularly polarized light, we find that, in the pseudogap state, left-circularly polarized photons give a different photocurrent than right-circularly polarized photons, and therefore the state below T* is rather unusual, in that it breaks time reversal symmetry11. This observation of a phase transition at T* provides the answer to a major mystery of the phase diagram of the cuprates. The appearance of the anomalies below T* must be related to the order parameter that sets in at this characteristic temperature .Comment: 11 pages, 4 figure

Localization of tenascin in human skin wounds

A total of 56 surgically treated human skin wounds with a wound age between 8h and 7 months were investigated. Tenascin was visualized by immunohistochemistry and appeared first in the wound area pericellularly around fibroblastic cells approximately 2 days after wounding. A network-like interstitial positive staining pattern was first detectable in 3-day-old skin wounds. In all wounds with an age of 5 days or more, intensive reactivity for tenascin could be observed in the lesional area (dermal-epidermal junction, wound edge, areas of bleeding). In wounds with an age of more than approximately 1.5 months no positive staining occurred in the scar tissue. In conclusion, for forensic purposes, positive staining for tenascin restricted to the pericellular area of fibroblastic cells indicates a wound age of at least 2 days. Network-like structures appear after approximately 3 days or more. Since tenascin seems to be regularly detectable in skin wounds older than 5 days, the lack of a positive reaction in a sufficient number of specimens indicates a wound age of less than 5 days. The lack of a positive reaction in the granulation tissue of wounds with advanced wound age indicates a survival time of more than about 1.5 months, but a positive staining in older wounds cannot be excluded

Spawning rings of exceptional points out of Dirac cones

The Dirac cone underlies many unique electronic properties of graphene and topological insulators, and its band structure--two conical bands touching at a single point--has also been realized for photons in waveguide arrays, atoms in optical lattices, and through accidental degeneracy. Deformations of the Dirac cone often reveal intriguing properties; an example is the quantum Hall effect, where a constant magnetic field breaks the Dirac cone into isolated Landau levels. A seemingly unrelated phenomenon is the exceptional point, also known as the parity-time symmetry breaking point, where two resonances coincide in both their positions and widths. Exceptional points lead to counter-intuitive phenomena such as loss-induced transparency, unidirectional transmission or reflection, and lasers with reversed pump dependence or single-mode operation. These two fields of research are in fact connected: here we discover the ability of a Dirac cone to evolve into a ring of exceptional points, which we call an "exceptional ring." We experimentally demonstrate this concept in a photonic crystal slab. Angle-resolved reflection measurements of the photonic crystal slab reveal that the peaks of reflectivity follow the conical band structure of a Dirac cone from accidental degeneracy, whereas the complex eigenvalues of the system are deformed into a two-dimensional flat band enclosed by an exceptional ring. This deformation arises from the dissimilar radiation rates of dipole and quadrupole resonances, which play a role analogous to the loss and gain in parity-time symmetric systems. Our results indicate that the radiation that exists in any open system can fundamentally alter its physical properties in ways previously expected only in the presence of material loss and gain

Emotional Fuzzy Sliding-Mode Control for Unknown Nonlinear Systems

[[abstract]]The brain emotional learning model can be implemented with a simple hardware and processor; however, the learning model cannot model the qualitative aspects of human knowledge. To solve this problem, a fuzzy-based emotional learning model (FELM) with structure and parameter learning is proposed. The membership functions and fuzzy rules can be learned through the derived learning scheme. Further, an emotional fuzzy sliding-mode control (EFSMC) system, which does not need the plant model, is proposed for unknown nonlinear systems. The EFSMC system is applied to an inverted pendulum and a chaotic synchronization. The simulation results with the use of EFSMC system demonstrate the feasibility of FELM learning procedure. The main contributions of this paper are (1) the FELM varies its structure dynamically with a simple computation; (2) the parameter learning imitates the role of emotions in mammalians brain; (3) by combining the advantage of nonsingular terminal sliding-mode control, the EFSMC system provides very high precision and finite-time control performance; (4) the system analysis is given in the sense of the gradient descent method.[[notice]]補正完

Smoking, passive smoking and histological types in lung cancer in Hong Kong Chinese women.

In a case control study in Hong Kong, 445 cases of Chinese female lung cancer patients all confirmed pathologically were compared with 445 Chinese female healthy neighbourhood controls matched for age. The predominant histological type was adenocarcinoma (47.2%). The relative risk (RR) in ever-smokers was 3.81 (P less than 0.001, 95% CI = 2.86, 5.08). The RRs were statistically significantly raised for all major cell types with significant trends between RR and amount of tobacco smoked daily. Among never smoking women, RR for passive smoking due to a smoking husband was 1.65 (P less than 0.01, 95% CI = 1.16, 2.35) with a significant trend between RR and amount smoked daily by the husband. When broken down by cell types, the numbers were substantial only for adenocarcinoma (RR = 2.12, P less than 0.01, 95% CI = 1.32, 3.39) with a significant trend between RR and amount smoked daily by the husband. The results suggest that passive smoking is a risk factor for lung cancer, particularly adenocarcinoma in Hong Kong Chinese women who never smoked

NDE Requirements for Thick Marine Composites

There is an increasing interest in the use of thick (more than 25 mm) polymer-matrix composite materials in marine structures. At the present time, the U.S. Navy is employing state-of-the-art polymer-matrix composite materials in the construction of submarine bow domes and is interested in the use of more-advanced materials in submarine pressure hulls and specialized sonar transducers. Concurrently, there appears to be considerable interest in the commercial sector, particularly in off-shore construction, where polymer-matrix composites are used in buoyancy materials, ropes and risers

Measuring the unmeasurable? A method to quantify adoption of integrated pest management practices in temperate arable farming systems

BACKGROUND: The impetus to adopt integrated pest management (IPM) practices has re-emerged in the last decade, mainly as a result of legislative and environmental drivers. However a significant deficit exists in the ability to practically monitor and measure IPM adoption across arable farms; therefore the aim of the project reported here was to establish a universal metric for quantifying adoption of IPM in temperate arable farming. This was achieved by: (a) identifying a set of key activities that contribute to IPM; (b) weighting these in terms of their importance to the achievement of IPM using panels of expert stakeholders in order to create the metric (scoring system from 0-100 indicating level of IPM practiced); (c) surveying arable farmers in the UK and Ireland about their pest management practices; and (d) measuring level of farmer adoption of IPM using the new metric. RESULTS. This new metric was found to be based on a consistent conception of IPM between countries and professional groups. The survey results showed that, while level of adoption of IPM practices varied over the sample, all farmers had adopted IPM to some extent (minimum 27.2 points, mean score of 65.1), but only 13 of 225 farmers (5.8%) had adopted more than 85% of what is theoretically possible, as measured by the new metric. CONCLUSION. We believe that this new metric would be a viable and cost-effective system to use to facilitate the benchmarking and monitoring of national IPM programmes in temperate zone countries with large scale arable farming systems

Adhesive capsulitis and dynamic splinting: a controlled, cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Adhesive Capsulitis (AC) affects patient of all ages, and stretching protocols are commonly prescribed for this condition. Dynamic splinting has been shown effective in contracture reduction from pathologies including Trismus to plantar fasciitis. The purpose of this study was to examine the efficacy of dynamic splinting on patients with AC.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This controlled, cohort study, was conducted at four physical therapy, sports medicine clinics in Texas and California. Sixty-two patients diagnosed with Stage II Adhesive Capsulitis were grouped by intervention. The intervention categories were as follows: Group I (Control); Group II (Physical Therapy exclusively with standardized protocols); Group III; (Shoulder Dynasplint system exclusively); Group IV (Combined treatment with Shoulder Dynasplint and standardized Physical Therapy). The duration of this study was 90 days for all groups, and the main outcome measures were change in active, external rotation.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Significant difference was found for all treatment groups (p < 0.001) following a one-way ANOVA. The greatest change with the smallest standard deviation was for the combined treatment group IV, (mean change of 29°).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The difference for the combined treatment group was attributed to patients' receiving the best PT combined with structured "home therapy" that contributed an additional 90 hours of end-range stretching. This adjunct should be included in the standard of care for adhesive Capsulitis.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p><b>Trial Number</b>: NCT00873158</p

Associations between quality of life and duration and frequency of physical activity and sedentary behaviour: Baseline findings from the WALK 2.0 randomised controlled trial.

While physical and mental health benefits of regular physical activity are well known, increasing evidence suggests that limiting sedentary behaviour is also important for health. Evidence shows associations of physical activity and sedentary behaviour with health-related quality of life (HRQoL), however, these findings are based predominantly on duration measures of physical activity and sedentary behaviour (e.g., minutes/week), with less attention on frequency measures (e.g., number of bouts). We examined the association of HRQoL with physical activity and sedentary behaviour, using both continuous duration (average daily minutes) and frequency (average daily bouts≥10 min) measures. Baseline data from the WALK 2.0 trial were analysed. WALK 2.0 is a randomised controlled trial investigating the effects of Web 2.0 applications on engagement, retention, and subsequent physical activity change. Daily physical activity and sedentary behaviour (duration = average minutes, frequency = average number of bouts ≥10 minutes) were measured (ActiGraph GT3X) across one week, and HRQoL was assessed with the 'general health' subscale of the RAND 36-Item Health Survey. Structural equation modelling was used to evaluate associations. Participants (N = 504) were 50.8±13.1 (mean±SD) years old with a BMI of 29.3±6.0. The 465 participants with valid accelerometer data engaged in an average of 24.0±18.3 minutes and 0.64±0.74 bouts of moderate-vigorous physical activity per day, 535.2±83.8 minutes and 17.0±3.4 bouts of sedentary behaviour per day, and reported moderate-high general HRQoL (64.5±20.0). After adjusting for covariates, the duration measures of physical activity (path correlation = 0.294, p<0.05) and sedentary behaviour were related to general HRQoL (path coefficient = -0.217, p<0.05). The frequency measure of physical activity was also significant (path coefficient = -0.226, p<0.05) but the frequency of sedentary behaviour was not significantly associated with general HRQoL. Higher duration levels of physical activity in fewer bouts, and lower duration of sedentary behaviour are associated with better general HRQoL. Further prospective studies are required to investigate these associations in different population groups over time