Maximum Entropy Bootstrap for Time Series: The meboot R Package

The maximum entropy bootstrap is an algorithm that creates an ensemble for time series inference. Stationarity is not required and the ensemble satisfies the ergodic theorem and the central limit theorem. The meboot R package implements such algorithm. This document introduces the procedure and illustrates its scope by means of several guided applications.

Maximum Entropy Bootstrap for Time Series: The meboot R Package

The maximum entropy bootstrap is an algorithm that creates an ensemble for time series inference. Stationarity is not required and the ensemble satisfies the ergodic theorem and the central limit theorem. The meboot R package implements such algorithm. This document introduces the procedure and illustrates its scope by means of several guided applications

Material Facts Obscured in Hansen's Modern Gauss-Markov Theorem

We show that the abstract and conclusion of Hansen's {\it Econometrica} paper, \cite{Hansen22}, entitled a modern Gauss-Markov theorem (MGMT), obscures a material fact, which in turn can confuse students. The MGMT places ordinary least squares (OLS) back on a high pedestal by bringing in the Cramer-Rao efficiency bound. We explain why linearity and unbiasedness are linked, making most nonlinear estimators biased. Hence, MGMT extends the reach of the century-old GMT by a near-empty set. It misleads students because it misdirects attention back to the unbiased OLS from beneficial shrinkage and other tools, which reduce the mean squared error (MSE) by injecting bias