Uniting statistical and individual-based approaches for animal movement modelling

<div><p>The dynamic nature of their internal states and the environment directly shape animals' spatial behaviours and give rise to emergent properties at broader scales in natural systems. However, integrating these dynamic features into habitat selection studies remains challenging, due to practically impossible field work to access internal states and the inability of current statistical models to produce dynamic outputs. To address these issues, we developed a robust method, which combines statistical and individual-based modelling. Using a statistical technique for forward modelling of the IBM has the advantage of being faster for parameterization than a pure inverse modelling technique and allows for robust selection of parameters. Using GPS locations from caribou monitored in Québec, caribou movements were modelled based on generative mechanisms accounting for dynamic variables at a low level of emergence. These variables were accessed by replicating real individuals' movements in parallel sub-models, and movement parameters were then empirically parameterized using Step Selection Functions. The final IBM model was validated using both k-fold cross-validation and emergent patterns validation and was tested for two different scenarios, with varying hardwood encroachment. Our results highlighted a functional response in habitat selection, which suggests that our method was able to capture the complexity of the natural system, and adequately provided projections on future possible states of the system in response to different management plans. This is especially relevant for testing the long-term impact of scenarios corresponding to environmental configurations that have yet to be observed in real systems.</p></div

Preliminary comparison with 40 CFR Part 191, Subpart B for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, December 1990

The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is planned as the first mined geologic repository for transuranic (TRU) wastes generated by defense programs of the United States Department of Energy (DOE). Before disposing of waste at the WIPP, the DOE must evaluate compliance with the United states Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Standard, Environmental Radiation Protection Standards for Management and Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel, High-Level and Transuranic Radioactive Wastes (40 CFR Part 191, US EPA, 1985). Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) is evaluating long-term performance against criteria in Subpart B of the Standard. Performance assessment'' as used in this report includes analyses for the Containment Requirements ({section} 191.13(a)) and the Individual Protection Requirements ({section} 191.15). Because proving predictions about future human actions or natural events is not possible, the EPA expects compliance to be determined on the basis of specified quantitative analyses and informed, qualitative judgment. The goal of the WIPP performance-assessment team at SNL is to provide as detailed and thorough a basis as practical for the quantitative aspects of that decision. This report summarizes SNL's late-1990 understanding of the WIPP Project's ability to evaluate compliance with Subpart B. 245 refs., 88 figs., 23 tabs