Sustainable water resources: A framework for assessing adaptation options in the rural sector.

Abstract.  This project developed a framework to assess how the irrigated agriculture and turf grass leisure sectors in England could adapt to climate change impacts on water resources. Two catchments (the Nar and Wensum) in East Anglia provided case studies for hydrological, crop yield and land-use modelling; farmer interviews were held across East Anglia, and the golf sector study covered England and Wales. Future climate scenarios were developed from the UKCIP02 dataset, using the high and low emission scenarios for the 2020s and 2050s. For all these scenarios, hydrological modelling showed, even by the 2020s, groundwater recharge is reduced, ground water levels are lower, and both summer and winter river flows fall despite higher winter rainfall. These changes imply major reductions in water available for abstraction and its reliability. It would be impossible to meet the current environmental river flow objectives even without abstraction. Crop yield and land use modelling suggested that farmers will still grow high value irrigated crops such as potatoes and field- scale vegetables. If water resources are limited, they will reduce irrigation of other crops and invest in farm reservoirs, using winter abstraction. However, the extra costs will reduce farm net margins, and make farm businesses more vulnerable. Farmer interviews confirmed that cropping changes and reservoirs are the preferred adaptations. A prototype knowledge elicitation tool was developed to improve understanding of farmer behaviour. A survey of golf course irrigation in England and Wales revealed courses are about equally split between using mains water and direct abstraction. If water is limited, many could adapt by restricting irrigation to greens and tees; others could use reservoirs, re-use and water harvesting. However, client/member pressure is for fully irrigated surfaces. Overall, the study revealed that adaptations options do exist, albeit with costs. Better information on the climate impacts and careful regulation would reduce the risks of users adopting individual adaptations that are not optimal overall and/or inappropriate

The impact of future socio-economic and climate changes on agricultural land use and the wider environment in East Anglia and North West England using a metamodel system

This paper describes a procedure to use a model interactively to investigate future land use by studying a wide range of scenarios defining climate, technological and socio-economic changes. A full model run of several hours has been replaced by a metamodel version which takes a few seconds, and provides the user with an immediate visual output and with the ability to examine easily which factors have the greatest effect. The Regional Impact Simulator combines a model of agricultural land use choices linked with models of urban growth, flooding risk, water quality and consequences for wildlife to estimate plausible futures of agricultural land on a timescale of 20–50 years. The model examines the East Anglian and North West regions of the United Kingdom at a grid resolution of 5 × 5 km, and for each scenario estimates the most likely cropping and its profitability at each location, and classifies land use as arable, intensive or extensive grassland or abandoned. From a modelling viewpoint the metamodel approach enables iteration. It is thus possible to determine how product prices change so that production meets demand. The results of the study show that in East Anglia cropping remains quite stable over a wide range of scenarios, though grassland is eliminated in scenarios with the 2050s High climate scenario – almost certainly due to the low yield in the drier conditions. In the North West there is a very much greater range of outcomes, though all scenarios suggest a reduction in grassland with the greatest in the 2050s High climate scenario combined with the “Regional Stewardship” (environmental) socio-economic scenario. The effects of the predicted changes in land use on plant species showed suitability for species to vary greatly, particularly between the socio-economic scenarios, due to detrimental effects from increases in nitrogen fertilisation. A complete simulation with the Regional Impact Simulator takes around 15 seconds (computer-dependent), which users who responded felt was adequate or better than adequate. The main areas for future improvement, such as the speed of the system, user interaction and the accuracy and detail of the modelling, are c