83 research outputs found

    Aging, Transition, and Estimating the Global Burden of Disease

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    The World Health Organization's Global Burden of Disease (GBD) reports are an important tool for global health policy makers, however the accuracy of estimates for countries undergoing an epidemiologic transition is unclear. We attempted to validate the life table model used to generate estimates for all-cause mortality in developing countries.Data were obtained for males and females from the Human Mortality Database for all countries with available data every ten years from 1900 to 2000. These provided inputs for the GBD life table model and served as comparison observed data. Above age sixty model estimates of survival for both sexes differed substantially from those observed. Prior to the year 1960 for males and 1930 for females, estimated survival tended to be greater than observed; following 1960 for both males and females estimated survival tended to be less than observed. Viewing observed and estimated survival separately, observed survival past sixty increased over the years considered. For males, the increase was from a mean (sd) probability of 0.22 (0.06) to 0.46 (0.1). For females, the increase was from 0.26 (0.06) to 0.65 (0.08). By contrast, estimated survival past sixty decreased over the same period. Among males, estimated survival probability declined from 0.54 (0.2) to 0.09 (0.06). Among females, the decline was from 0.36 (0.12) to 0.15 (0.08).These results show that the GBD mortality model did not accurately estimate survival at older ages as developed countries transitioned in the twentieth century and may be similarly flawed in developing countries now undergoing transition. Estimates of the size of older-age populations and their attributable disease burden should be reconsidered

    Australian vegetated coastal ecosystems as global hotspots for climate change mitigation

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    Policies aiming to preserve vegetated coastal ecosystems (VCE; tidal marshes, mangroves and seagrasses) to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions require national assessments of blue carbon resources. Here, we present organic carbon (C) storage in VCE across Australian climate regions and estimate potential annual CO2 emission benefits of VCE conservation and restoration. Australia contributes 5–11% of the C stored in VCE globally (70–185 Tg C in aboveground biomass, and 1,055–1,540 Tg C in the upper 1 m of soils). Potential CO2 emissions from current VCE losses are estimated at 2.1–3.1 Tg CO2-e yr-1, increasing annual CO2 emissions from land use change in Australia by 12–21%. This assessment, the most comprehensive for any nation to-date, demonstrates the potential of conservation and restoration of VCE to underpin national policy development for reducing greenhouse gas emissions

    Australian vegetated coastal ecosystems as global hotspots for climate change mitigation

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    Β© 2019, The Author(s). Policies aiming to preserve vegetated coastal ecosystems (VCE; tidal marshes, mangroves and seagrasses) to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions require national assessments of blue carbon resources. Here, we present organic carbon (C) storage in VCE across Australian climate regions and estimate potential annual CO2 emission benefits of VCE conservation and restoration. Australia contributes 5–11% of the C stored in VCE globally (70–185 Tg C in aboveground biomass, and 1,055–1,540 Tg C in the upper 1 m of soils). Potential CO2 emissions from current VCE losses are estimated at 2.1–3.1 Tg CO2-e yr-1, increasing annual CO2 emissions from land use change in Australia by 12–21%. This assessment, the most comprehensive for any nation to-date, demonstrates the potential of conservation and restoration of VCE to underpin national policy development for reducing greenhouse gas emissions

    Australian vegetated coastal ecosystems as global hotspots for climate change mitigation

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    Unidad de excelencia MarΓ­a de Maeztu MdM-2015-0552Policies aiming to preserve vegetated coastal ecosystems (VCE; tidal marshes, mangroves and seagrasses) to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions require national assessments of blue carbon resources. Here, we present organic carbon (C) storage in VCE across Australian climate regions and estimate potential annual CO emission benefits of VCE conservation and restoration. Australia contributes 5-11% of the C stored in VCE globally (70-185 Tg C in aboveground biomass, and 1,055-1,540 Tg C in the upper 1 m of soils). Potential CO emissions from current VCE losses are estimated at 2.1-3.1 Tg CO-e yr, increasing annual CO emissions from land use change in Australia by 12-21%. This assessment, the most comprehensive for any nation to-date, demonstrates the potential of conservation and restoration of VCE to underpin national policy development for reducing greenhouse gas emissions

    Using viral vectors as gene transfer tools (Cell Biology and Toxicology Special Issue: ETCS-UK 1 day meeting on genetic manipulation of cells)

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    In recent years, the development of powerful viral gene transfer techniques has greatly facilitated the study of gene function. This review summarises some of the viral delivery systems routinely used to mediate gene transfer into cell lines, primary cell cultures and in whole animal models. The systems described were originally discussed at a 1-day European Tissue Culture Society (ETCS-UK) workshop that was held at University College London on 1st April 2009. Recombinant-deficient viral vectors (viruses that are no longer able to replicate) are used to transduce dividing and post-mitotic cells, and they have been optimised to mediate regulatable, powerful, long-term and cell-specific expression. Hence, viral systems have become very widely used, especially in the field of neurobiology. This review introduces the main categories of viral vectors, focusing on their initial development and highlighting modifications and improvements made since their introduction. In particular, the use of specific promoters to restrict expression, translational enhancers and regulatory elements to boost expression from a single virion and the development of regulatable systems is described

    The planning of observational studies of human populations

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    Selected annotated bibliography of case-control study

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    Matching and design efficiency in retrospective studies

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