Uncertainty and risk: politics and analysis

In environmental and sustainable development policy issues, and in infrastructural megaprojects and issues of innovative medical technologies as well, public authorities face emergent complexity, high value diversity, difficult-to-structure problems, high decision stakes, high uncertainty, and thus risk. In practice, it is believed, this often leads to crises, controversies, deadlocks, and policy fiascoes. Decision-makers are said to face a crisis in coping with uncertainty. Both the cognitive structure of uncertainty and the political structure of risk decisions have been studied. So far, these scientific literatures exist side by side, with few apparent efforts at theoretically conceptualizing and empirically testing the links between the two. Therefore, this exploratory and conceptual paper takes up the challenge: How should we conceptualize the cognitive structure of uncertainty? How should we conceptualize the political structure of risk? How can we conceptualize the link(s) between the two? Is there any empirical support for a conceptualization that bridges the analytical and political aspects of risk? What are the implications for guidelines for risk analysis and assessment

RESPONSE: IMPACT ON KNOWLEDGE OF FARM OPERATORS

Farm Management,

Understanding U.S. Farm Exits

The rate at which U.S. farms go out of business, or exit farming, is about 9 or 10 percent per year, comparable to exit rates for nonfarm small businesses in the United States. U.S. farms have not disappeared because the rate of entry into farming is nearly as high as the exit rate. The relatively stable farm count since the 1970s reflects exits and entries essentially in balance. The probability of exit is higher for recent entrants than for older, more established farms. Farms operated by Blacks are more likely to exit than those operated by Whites, but the gap between Black and White exit probabilities has declined substantially since the 1980s. Exit probabilities differ by specialization, with beef farms less likely to exit than cash grain or hog farms.1997 Census of Agriculture Longitudinal File, farm exit, farm entry, farm structure, farm operator characteristics, farm operator life cycle, Agricultural Finance,

Structure and Finances of U.S. Farms: 2005 Family Farm Report

Most farms in the United States- 98 percent in 2003- are family farms. They are organized as proprietorships, partnerships, or family corporations. Even the largest farms tend to be family farms, although they are more likely to have more than one operator. Very large family farms and nonfamily farms account for a small share of farms but a large-and growing-share of farm sales. Small family farms account for most of the farms in the United States but produce a modest share of farm output. Median income for farm households is 10 percent greater than the median for all U.S. households, and small-farm households receive substantial off-farm income. Many farm households have a large net worth, reflecting the land-intensive nature of farming.Agricultural Finance, Consumer/Household Economics, Industrial Organization,

Changing Farm Structure and the Distribution of Farm Payments and Federal Crop Insurance

The distribution of commodity-related payments and Federal crop insurance indemnities to U.S. farmers has shifted to larger farms as more and more U.S. agricultural production is done on those farms. Since the operators of larger farms tend to have higher household incomes than other farm operators, commodity-related program payments and Federal crop insurance indemnities also have shifted to higher income households. By 2009, half of commodity-related program payments went to farms operated by households earning over $89,540, a quarter went to farms operated by households with incomes greater than$209,000 and 10 percent went to farms operated by households with incomes of at least $425,000. Current income eligibility caps and payment limits affect few farm households because most of them have incomes below the income caps or receive payments less than the payment limits. Based on 2009 Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS) data, recent proposals to lower those income caps and payment limits would still affect only a small percentage of U.S. farm households, because their incomes would still fall below the proposed income caps and payment limits. Total Government program payments to U.S. farms were$12.3 billion in 2009. Total Federal crop insurance indemnity payments were $5.2 billion in 2009.farm program payments, Federal crop insurance, Agricultural Resource Management Survey, structural change, income caps, payment limits., Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Industrial Organization, Public Economics,

FARM OPERATIONS FACING DEVELOPMENT: RESULTS FROM THE CENSUS LONGITUDINAL FILE

This paper examines farms in areas undergoing development, using a longitudinal file constructed by linking several agricultural censuses. Individual farms are followed over the 1982-97 period. Survival, exit, and entrance rates are presented for three types of farms: recreational, adaptive, and traditional. The three types of farms are located where one would expect. Traditional farms are concentrated in nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) counties, while adaptive farms are concentrated in metro core counties. Recreational farms are least common in nonmetro nonadjacent areas, where off-farm opportunities are fewest. The concentration of adaptive farms in metro core counties does not appear to be the result of these farms simply surviving an urban environment better than traditional and recreational farms. In fact, adaptive farms have lower survival rates than traditional farms. Adaptive farms instead had a relatively high entrance rate.urban development, urbanization, specialty agriculture, high-value agriculture, farming, farm structure, Farm Management,

AN ANALYSIS OF NONMETROPOLITAN GROWTH IN MINNESOTA

Community/Rural/Urban Development,

Structure and Finances of U.S. Farms: 2005 Family Farm Report

Most farms in the United States—98 percent in 2003—are family farms. They are organized as proprietorships, partnerships, or family corporations. Even the largest farms tend to be family farms, although they are more likely to have more than one operator. Very large family farms and nonfamily farms account for a small share of farms but a large—and growing—share of farm sales. Small family farms account for most of the farms in the United States but produce a modest share of farm output. Median income for farm households is 10 percent greater than the median for all U.S. households, and small-farm households receive substantial off-farm income. Many farm households have a large net worth, reflecting the land-intensive nature of farming.Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS), family farms, farm businesses, farm financial performance, farm-operator household income, farm operators, farm structure, farm type, multiple-operator farms, multiple-generation farms, small farms, contracting, Farm Management,